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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4025770)
Israel has entered Iran in the past on numerous occasions. Launched drones from inside Iran. Assassinated many Iranian scientists.
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4025770)
Iran will announce nuclear power one day. And bombing them isn’t going to stop it. This little distraction “war” has made people entirely delusional.
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4025770)
Iran absolutely wants deterrence. They aren’t stupid enough to launch nukes first. The fact you think Israel would launch first shows you who the true threat is in the Middle East.
The issue as I said before is that their system is complicated, and they have a strong fanatic wing which they intentionally cultivated for reasons, and now have to live with. Again it doesn't even matter what you or I think they'd do... it only matters what IL things they *might* do, and whether IL will take a chance on that. The general consensus of those involved in the problem set is that, No at some point IL will not just live with the risk. You and I don't know exactly where that point is, although the IL gov may have actually already told the US gov. That's one (of several) possibilities as to why this thing kicked off. |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 4025868)
I’ve come to the conclusion that American politics has developed a unique attribute over the last 30 years or so. Normal societies judge people, parties and institutions by their actions. Not so here. The “thing” being done is irrelevant, it’s the “who” that’s doing it. We have a political culture where most people will immediately establish the “who” doing it and then conduct mental contortion to determine whether the “thing” is either black and white good/bad based on if it’s the “good who” or the “bad who”.
The reason for this is largely because switching sides or changing your opinion has become weak flip flopping and something to be ashamed of, as opposed to natural learning and character growth. Americans would, quite literally, rather die than admit they were wrong, about pretty much anything. If you’re not angry that the side whose entire foreign policy campaign centered around “no new wars, the other side will start a war with Iran” shifted entirely to starting a war in Iran, then you’re part of the problem. Personally I thought it was all bluster and neither side was going to start any wars, but here we are. I was wrong. Obviously just my humble opinion. |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4025859)
Just based on facts. There’s only one country in the ME that has continued to bomb various neighbors (as in numerous countries) for the past several decades, using their actual military (and not a militant faction), using U.S.-made weapons, tanks, planes, helis, and bombs.
What I find funny is the amount of airline pilots who are completely committed to the cult, and despite voting for no wars, America first, more isolationism, are sitting in the bar on fire with that dog face “this is fine.” Reports are coming out that the IRGC took over the Iranian government and are calling the shots now. The leader is much more radical than some of the politicians. Which is why Iran started firing on ships despite them saying the straight was open (the moderates in government are no isolated). Extenda is also right. However, I feel that a lot of Trump’s voters are feeling betrayed by this war (which is the majority of the America since he also won the popular vote). When Biden was in office, it didn’t matter what that administration did, democratic voters sided with him. This is not the same for republican voters. They’re calling their party and their leaders out. If the Democrats weren’t going to win the next election, they sure are now. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 4025889)
So what? Better than just nuking them.
Nuclear power and nuclear weapons are different animals, it's possible to have nuclear power without any real prospect of developing a bomb. We'd probably even sell or gift them LEU for power plants if that's what they wanted (in exchange for their enriched stockpiles). Sure the rational ones would like deterrence, who wouldn't? The issue as I said before is that their system is complicated, and they have a strong fanatic wing which they intentionally cultivated for reasons, and now have to live with. Again it doesn't even matter what you or I think they'd do... it only matters what IL things they *might* do, and whether IL will take a chance on that. The general consensus of those involved in the problem set is that, No at some point IL will not just live with the risk. You and I don't know exactly where that point is, although the IL gov may have actually already told the US gov. That's one (of several) possibilities as to why this thing kicked off. |
Originally Posted by Lowslung
(Post 4025913)
That’s all true, but I think there are more and more Americans wondering why we’re beholden to Israeli whims. One thing I give credit to previous admins of all stripes for is reining in the Israelis when they get squirrely. I get the distinct impression that Bibi sees the current admin as easier to manipulate than previous ones and is hell bent on making hay while the sun is shining. I’m glad we consider Israel an ally, but their national interests don’t always align with ours. In fact, sometimes they are diametrically opposed. As an American citizen, I’m somewhat dismayed that our current leadership has allowed the country to be led down the primrose Israeli path.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-...ks-uss-liberty the political idiom “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the Alternative” comes to mind. To say they are the finest people in the region can be simultaneously both true and damning them with faint praise. |
Originally Posted by Lowslung
(Post 4025913)
That’s all true, but I think there are more and more Americans wondering why we’re beholden to Israeli whims. One thing I give credit to previous admins of all stripes for is reining in the Israelis when they get squirrely. I get the distinct impression that Bibi sees the current admin as easier to manipulate than previous ones and is hell bent on making hay while the sun is shining. I’m glad we consider Israel an ally, but their national interests don’t always align with ours. In fact, sometimes they are diametrically opposed. As an American citizen, I’m somewhat dismayed that our current leadership has allowed the country to be led down the primrose Israeli path.
But as long as we're reliant on the global price of oil, and on the global economy which is also reliant on that, we need max stability in the region and IL is an obvious reliable partner in that (they have no one else to turn to). Maybe someday if we don't need oil as much and/or the GCC steps up enough to counter-balance the bad actors we won't need to be as involved. Or maybe the bad actors evolve into not-so-bad (many have). |
Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer
(Post 4025909)
Reports are coming out that the IRGC took over the Iranian government and are calling the shots now. The leader is much more radical than some of the politicians. Which is why Iran started firing on ships despite them saying the straight was open (the moderates in government are no isolated).
military is controlled by the Ayottallah. |
Originally Posted by ThumbsUp
(Post 4025939)
The IRGC already had control of the government. The elected bodies control very little. Even the conventional
military is controlled by the Ayottallah. Yes. The balance of power for most things is various factions and personalities from the top mullahs and IRGC leaders. Many of the elected officials are also affiliated with the power brokers, but elected institutions of themselves are captive to the real bosses. They gave one moderate president some leash, and he tried to do stuff, but that didn't last and they clamped back down. |
Originally Posted by ThumbsUp
(Post 4026017)
I agree. More bombs needed.
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Ceasefire extended until Iran can come with their proposal
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