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Economic Impacts of Iran War


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Economic Impacts of Iran War

Old 05-05-2026 | 09:05 AM
  #1541  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
The market is not pricing in the largest energy crisis in the modern history of the human race. Ask AI bulls where the helium for Semiconductor production growth will come from.

Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months
if I were you I’d get out now… stuff cash under your bed. This is just like 2008 where banks gave unlimited funds to financially low IQ individuals to buy homes they could never afford. Illegal immigrants and professional tire changers definitely deserved $750k pool homes.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 09:09 AM
  #1542  
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Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
Anyone see the famed economist GarySchilling predict a massive recession by the end of 2026?

he also said this last year

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/amp/202...market-likely/

Hope some of you listened and held cash in 2025. I didn’t listen unfortunately… the gains were quite concerning.
​​​​​Shilling maintained his cautious strategy while tweaking language from previous commentaries, recommending that investors "hold extra cash as a bear market in equities unfolds," the newsletter, released Wednesday, says.

Shilling again suggested investors go long the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, "the other safe haven, which also should rise in price as the Fed eases credit and the recession unfolds."

He continued to recommend investors "avoid vastly-overpriced stocks," like the Magnificent Seven, artificial intelligence stocks and cryptocurrency securities.
Iow…hold cash & bond securities, no crypto, no venture tech, wait for fed to lower discount rate. Nothing really new in that far as I can see?



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Old 05-05-2026 | 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Trip7
The market is not pricing in the largest energy crisis in the modern history of the human race. Ask AI bulls where the helium for Semiconductor production growth will come from.

Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months
So 80% of the world’s oil is either tripling or quadrupling in value for the long term. The oil sheiks who can’t get their oil out will be going BK sitting on product they can’t sell.

Who is the winner? If I am all cash staring this week where do I invest and ride this wave of 80 million barrels per day quadrupling in value.

The people who are sitting on 20 million barrels a day that they can’t ship out, where and what companies are they emergency spending their money on to get product out.

Who cares about a recession if this thing is already called, and you can just show us the money.

When the market prices the largest energy crisis human history in who will the winners be? Don’t bore us with the losers.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Trip7
The market is not pricing in the largest energy crisis in the modern history of the human race. Ask AI bulls where the helium for Semiconductor production growth will come from.

Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months
Im just so impressed that I fly with macroeconomic savants while the market is entirely missing it. Damn, pilots are gifted.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
So 80% of the world’s oil is either tripling or quadrupling in value for the long term. The oil sheiks who can’t get their oil out will be going BK sitting on product they can’t sell.

Who is the winner? If I am all cash staring this week where do I invest and ride this wave of 80 million barrels per day quadrupling in value.

The people who are sitting on 20 million barrels a day that they can’t ship out, where and what companies are they emergency spending their money on to get product out.

Who cares about a recession if this thing is already called, and you can just show us the money.

When the market prices the largest energy crisis human history in who will the winners be? Don’t bore us with the losers.
Wish you the best in making a quick buck. There are a few here, myself included, who are more concerned with the “unknown unknowns” and unintended second and third order effects that come with breaking global supply chains. We’re likely going to see a whole lot of things happening that nobody predicted over the next months and years. If your only interest is breaking things down into transactional opportunities, go for it. Just don’t expect us all to think the way you do.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 11:19 AM
  #1546  
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Originally Posted by dsevo
Im just so impressed that I fly with macroeconomic savants while the market is entirely missing it. Damn, pilots are gifted.
It's funny that you think you have to be a savant to see some of the downline affects that are headed our way in the very near future.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by word302
It's funny that you think you have to be a savant to see some of the downline affects that are headed our way in the very near future.
Apparently one does considering how often people have been wrong so far in this thread.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Lowslung
Wish you the best in making a quick buck. There are a few here, myself included, who are more concerned with the “unknown unknowns” and unintended second and third order effects that come with breaking global supply chains. We’re likely going to see a whole lot of things happening that nobody predicted over the next months and years. If your only interest is breaking things down into transactional opportunities, go for it. Just don’t expect us all to think the way you do.
I don’t expect anything, just not sure why there is so much pride in calling a bear market.

Call the next bull run.

You wanna call a go-around from the top of decent go for it, but the better call is for delay vectors to stick the landing

I get it’s politically prideful to call and adversary’s failure, but once we switch to where the winners and losers are in the market why are we only focused on the losers to prove our vision is so good.


Gas prices are up $1.50 gallon in the US, no ones cost have gone up, the earrings will show up somewhere.

They are not mailing stimulus checks to oil sheiks using their new found profits to balance the winners and losers.

Last edited by OpieTaylor; 05-05-2026 at 12:34 PM.
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Old 05-05-2026 | 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by dsevo
Im just so impressed that I fly with macroeconomic savants while the market is entirely missing it. Damn, pilots are gifted.
Fresh records…. Again…

I’m glad some here most likely got out when the market dipped last month. I wouldn’t want them to experience all the losing


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Old 05-05-2026 | 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Lowslung
Wish you the best in making a quick buck. There are a few here, myself included, who are more concerned with the “unknown unknowns” and unintended second and third order effects that come with breaking global supply chains. We’re likely going to see a whole lot of things happening that nobody predicted over the next months and years. If your only interest is breaking things down into transactional opportunities, go for it. Just don’t expect us all to think the way you do.
I remember not too long ago when other supply chains were disrupted, stay indoors they said… Democrats said boo about it.. meanwhile used car prices skyrocketed, you couldn’t build a small single door deck for less than $5k, and eggs skyrocketed. How ‘bout those egg prices btw!

where were ya then? Meanwhile, 80% of the worlds oil is still moving, the ME oil is on standby, but somehow y'all think it’ll take years to get that oil to it’s offloading position.

You would have some actual credibility if you hadn’t dismissed the 3 yrs of insane prices under Biden, would have called him out for depleting the Strategic Oil Reserves right before the election, or acknowledged the years of high gas prices under the Opressed Obama family. Hell I’m already saving $12k a year on a refi for one of my properties this year. Gas has cost me maybe $200 extra the last 2 months. The math says I’m ahead.


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