Like I said, baited and gaslighted...and with that I'm done proving that you can't fix stupid. That concludes today's entertainment.

 

Worked with Nazi Germany.
Worked with Japan (OK, took a couple of nukes too. Hopefully that won’t be necessary.)
pretty sure those are the last two wars anyone has unequivocally won.

 

"buzz word.... buzz word...... I'm done with you" but really never are

Again, capitulation on your part is well received.

 

Now we're thinking Iran will surrender because of this blockade? The mullahs couldn't give a rip about the lives of the Iranian people; they've proven that time and time again. All they care about is what any dictatorship cares about, which is staying in power. And they can bear far more pain than we will.

The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Sure, we may have eliminated much of their conventional capabilities, but all you need is one or two mines or drones to take down a tanker and no amount of our naval presence will restart the flow of oil.

Also, it occurred to me that one's position on this whole insanity would depend on whether you actually believe that Iran would launch a nuclear first strike. The mullahs aren't stupid; they haven't controlled a 90-million-person country for 47 years by being stupid. They know that a single nuclear detonation would result in the conversion of their entire country into radioactive dust particles.

All the "Death to America" nonsense is pablum designed to keep their population's anger focused externally. Now, of course, a nuclear Iran would be a fairly awful development, which is why I supported last year's strikes on their enrichment facilities. But our administration has dramatically misjudged how this war would play out, because we fired the intelligent, sane people in the room and brought in TV personalities to run Cabinet departments. (I'm not even talking about Trump).

But the current situation? Let's do a before and after comparison.
Before: Iran didn't control the Strait of Hormuz. Now: they effectively do.

Before: they had an 86 year old leader, with a very shaky regime, and the potential of more moderate successors waiting in the wings. Now: we have a much younger and probably crazier leader, and have refocused many Iranian's anger towards their government, onto us instead. (That happens when you kill enough kids, even though I believe it was an accident -- that's irrelevant).

Before: our Gulf allies had relative stability with very little actual threat from Islamic fundamentalists. Now: the image of peace and prosperity projected by the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait etc has been shattered. The grand bargains those countries have made with their citizens, while they haven't unraveled yet, are absolutely in danger if this war isn't brought to a swift end.

Before: oil and LNG producing infrastructure in the Persian Gulf hadn't been destroyed since Gulf War 1. Now: not only are energy supplies considerably constrained, the production capabilities have been seriously affected (see; Qatar LNG).

For those who think this will be over quickly and the world will just go back to what it was six weeks ago ... I envy your optimism. I would also encourage you to do some reading on how energy markets actually work, and how and where various fuel types are actually manufactured.

Some of the assumptions I've read from people who think that since the US is allegedly energy independent (spoiler alert: we're not), we shouldn't be affected too much, or that a 20% cut in oil supply should equal only a 20% price increase... It's literally like if a passenger walked into your flight deck and asked if we could take off on one engine, because we would just takeoff half as fast, right? You'd do a facepalm, which is what I do when I read some of the energy-related diatribes on here...

 

alt=""

alt=""

 

The Dow Jones index is literally just 30 American companies. It excludes utilities and transportation, and it is most certainly not representative of the overall US economy. If you only judge world events by whatever number the Dow happens to be at, I don't know what to tell you...

 

You can takeoff on one max blast engine. It’s even possible using just tiller, rudder & stab trim. If only the gulf was so easy to hat trick. No a blockade won’t work. Goofy to try. Strong post.

 

Well the assumption Iran’s largest buyer, China at 40%, had not prepared for such a scenario is laughable. They’ve spent the last decade focusing on energy independence by aggressively building oil storage and production capabilities. China “only has three months of oil reserves” is propaganda. Claiming 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz is technically propaganda—there’s plenty of available untapped supply. Iran was nothing more than sanctioned oil at a steep discount for the Chinese. This idea that the largest consumers of oil have not invested heavily in energy independence by sitting on untapped domestic oil supply is laughable as well.

 

If you FAILED TO NOTICE the second photo which showed the Index 500 which demonstrates what an index of (duh) FIVE HUNDRED of the most prominent US companies including utilities and transportation and definitely DOES broadly represent the US economy and either didn’t understand that or didn’t notice it, I DO KNOW WHAT TO TELL YOU;

For the sake of your significant other and/or kids, let someone else, even if you have to pay a professional financial manager to do it, manage your 401k for you, so they aren’t having to support you in your old age.

 

a point: the stock market is irrelevant if you’re in the vast majority of Americans with zero equity in it.

but, yes, for people like us with a maxed out 401k every year we generally rise and fall with equities.