Major Airline Retirements

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08-02-2007, 10:42 AM

#11

dojetdriver

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Position: DD->DH->RU/XE soon to be EV

Posts: 3,732

Quote:

Originally Posted by SamFoxpilot

I gotta ask since this is been discussed so much. Who's to say everyone would retire 5 years later w/the age 65 limit? Don't most companies allow for some form of early retirement? I'm new to the industry, so I honestly don't know.

I would think the age 65 rule will slow seniority somewhat, but not as much as folks would think.

Yes, you are correct. Airlines will let you retire anytime you want. Depending on how the guy's career panned out, his spending habits, how many wives he has, ect, some guys could walk at 50 and be set the rest of their lives.

Others, for whatever reason, may need the additional 5 years to make up for whatever they did, or however their career panned out. Maybe the guy was furloughed/displaced multiple times or had something else happen (illness, family issues) to where he was never really able to get a sizable retirement nest egg going.

My comment was meant as common joke that is starting to take place with age 65 becoming a reality.

08-02-2007, 10:43 AM

#12

CAL EWR

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I agree because Sick Leave and LTD for those above 60 will be very high maybe as high as 30 to 40 percent. Those actually flying will have a very high sick call rate so that could effectively make it 50% less then if age 60 stayed the same.

08-02-2007, 10:48 AM

#13

XtremeF150

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Lets not stray into one of those age 65 things. Almost every thread about retirements gets hijacked into age 65

. Does anyone have any numbers on other major carriers such as Alaska, Spirit, Jet Blue, and of course the larger regionals Skywest, RAH and such?

08-02-2007, 10:49 AM

#14

dojetdriver

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CAL EWR

Can you imagine the headache this is going to cause for airline management? If it passes that an over 60 guy can only fly with an under 60 guy, what a scam for FO's at airlines that still have line bidding. The under 60 guy can buddy bid with the over 60 guy and get displaced off his trip and sit at home. Of course with a PBS type system it will just withhold the trip and the senior/old FO won't be able to take advantage.

The other thing, airlines will think it's great that guys over 60 can fly. Except for when they start calling sick at their high pay rates and realize they are going to need to staff better. To top it off, the amount of vacation time accrued, as well as the hourly cost of that vacation is going to be big.

08-02-2007, 11:55 AM

#15

flaps 9

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dojetdriver

I agree 100%. I don't understand why any airline would support changing the age 60 rule.

08-02-2007, 07:00 PM

#16

av8instyle

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Position: B737 / F-16

Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by XtremeF150

Lets not stray into one of those age 65 things. Almost every thread about retirements gets hijacked into age 65

. Does anyone have any numbers on other major carriers such as Alaska, Spirit, Jet Blue, and of course the larger regionals Skywest, RAH and such?

Alaska
2007 76
2008 48
2009 43
2010 48
2011 52
2012 49
2013 47
2014 50
2015 55
2016 58
2017 59
2018 51
2019 58
2020 58
2021 52
2022 79
2023 56
2024 74
2025 51
2026 54
2027 67
2028 53
2029 64
2030 56
2031 50
These numbers may not seem large, but in comparison we only have 1500 pilots - so these numbers ARE large.

08-02-2007, 07:03 PM

#17

av8instyle

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Position: B737 / F-16

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Also, it takes number 1100ish to make captain here. That means 7 years for someone hired right now assuming zero growth.
FYI

08-05-2007, 07:59 AM

#18

Lifeisgood

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aerospacepilot

I thought I would post this before it becomes obsolete. These are numbers I have dug up and collected from multiple threads.

Thanks for the effort. Do you have anything past 2017?
Thanks

08-06-2007, 06:13 AM

#19

Flyby1206

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Joined APC: Mar 2006

Position: 320 CA

Posts: 5,588

Quote:

Originally Posted by XtremeF150

Lets not stray into one of those age 65 things. Almost every thread about retirements gets hijacked into age 65

. Does anyone have any numbers on other major carriers such as Alaska, Spirit, Jet Blue, and of course the larger regionals Skywest, RAH and such?

Here are some numbers from AE:

Year Ret.
2007 34
2008 31
2009 27
2010 34
2011 31
2012 31
2013 33
2014 50
2015 54
2016 71
2017 74
2018 72
2019 65
2020 94
2021 90
2022 88
2023 117
2024 90
2025 96
2026 87
2027 108
2028 96
2029 100
2030 97
2031 91
2032 103
2033 102
2034 85
2035 97
2036 67
2037 60
2038 68
2039 59
2040 66
2041 53
2042 59
2043 33
2044 13
2045 7

These numbers are from our Feb 07 Seniority list. We have approx 3000 pilots total on our list. These numbers dont include any AA flowbacks who came from AA to AE when they were furloughed. There were about 350 total flowbacks and I think there are about 234 left on the list. Due to AA recalls I expect most of them to be recalled in the next 2-3 years.

08-06-2007, 08:34 AM

#20

Utah

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Position: RJ Captain

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Quote:

Originally Posted by XtremeF150

Lets not stray into one of those age 65 things. Almost every thread about retirements gets hijacked into age 65

. Does anyone have any numbers on other major carriers such as Alaska, Spirit, Jet Blue, and of course the larger regionals Skywest, RAH and such?

At SkyWest, it seems we only have an age sixty retirement a couple times a year. Out of 2760 pilots it wouldn't surprise me if less than 50-100 will retire in the next ten years. The really senior guys seem to only be mid to late 40's. Very company young company overall, as most of the growth has happened in the last 5-8 years. 7 1/2 years with the company and I'm in the top 20% of the seniority list.