I don't think any airline does. It's such an emotional and PC/not PC topic, that most airlines don't want to go on the record yet. I know that NWA mgm't is the only carrier that has gone on the record against it, they also printed a brochure that said employees that took pay-cuts shouldn't be ashamed to shop at the Goodwill or junk-yards. I've heard that Jet-blue has even said they'd implement it retroactively. Maybe a JB guy can confirm?

 

The bills are titled the "Freedom to Fly Act 2007" and are:
H.R. 1125 w/ 245 sponsors and
S.65 w/ 44 sponsors (note-sponsor totals include the individual submitting the bill)


Both bills are sitting in committee with no action for the past few months.

the FAA's NPRM is still lodged firmly somewhere in the bureaucratic process with no additional info other than Blakely's press release in January.

 

Why is sky high still here?

 

The FAA process is by definition very slow and deliberate. It is most certainly not dead as many might think.

 

Your kidding, right? Obviously you don't know how greedy pilots are. Here at UPS, 95% plus of the over 60 guys have stayed. We have close to over 300 FE's now over 60. Instead of retiring after 30 some years of flying, they go back to the back seat for HALF the pay. And we have both an A and B plan.

So if this is any indicator, 95% of pilots will go to 65 if able.

 

Every year there are around 10,000 new commercial pilot licenses issued and at least 5000 military pilots trained for an average of less than 2000 good airline jobs from retirements. In addition we have people from overseas coming to the states to take flying jobs.

Future prospects do not seem very bright either. The better airline jobs are being replaced by RJ's and LCCs and we are still waiting for at least one or two of the legacy carriers to fall. Most likely there will be even fewer opportunities for a good job in the future. If the age 65 rule is passed over night there will be almost 17% more pilots.

People blow a small fortune on what really is a slim chance of even being able to earn back the price of entry.

And people claim that "I" am the crazy one.

SkyHigh

Hey man, why is this Sky High guy even here? There, I saved you the trouble.

 

FAA STATS: 2006

Commercial--Total 117,610

Airline Transport --Total 141,935

Commercial Issued in 2006 8,687

TABLE 17
ORIGINAL AIRMEN CERTIFICATES ISSUED BY CATEGORY
CALENDAR YEARS 1997-2006

Category of Certificates 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997
Pilot--Total 99,792 91,446 99,416 98,643 113,583 108,000 106,517 101,386 108,994 100,472
StudentE 61,448 53,576 59,202 58,842 65,421 61,897 58,042 58,278 63,037 60,941
Recreational 41 57 47 48 77 61 93 83 69 60
Sport 784 133 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Airplane
Private 20,217 20,889 23,031 23,866 28,659 25,372 27,223 24,630 26,297 21,552
Commercial 8,687 8,834 9,836 9,670 12,299 11,499 11,213 9,737 10,042 8,988
Airline Transport 4,748 4,750 4,255 3,892 4,718 7,070 7,715 6,721 7,547 7,045
Rotorcraft (only) 3,569 2,917 2,736 2,013 2,073 1,698 1,776 1,514 1,530 1,385
Glider (only) 298 290 309 312 336 403 455 423 472 501
Flight Instructor
Certificates 1/ 4,506 3,654 5,044 5,012 6,221 5,781 5,386 4,697 4,647 3,958
Instrument Ratings 2/ 9,559 9,482 10,452 10,069 12,626 11,552 11,148 9,538 9,737 8,392

Nonpilot--Total 12,437 13,217 14,656 13,211 16,172 18,102 17,839 19,782 18,701 16,090
Mechanic 5,555 5,651 6,126 6,064 7,733 8,083 8,894 8,197 8,809 7,439
Control Tower Operator 4/ 802 819 893 856 862 790 675 669 N/A N/A
Repairmen 3/ 3,307 3,628 4,622 3,415 3,743 3,789 4,210 3,903 3,963 3,255
Parachute Rigger 237 243 238 228 238 214 208 193 286 227
Authorized Aircraft Instr. 6 38 72 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Ground Instructor 1,553 1,585 1,919 1,948 2,344 2,087 2,058 1,853 1,972 1,788
Dispatcher 628 657 603 550 722 956 838 964 992 836
Flight Navigator 0 2 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 0
Flight Engineer 349 594 182 147 529 2,182 955 4,003 2,679 2,545
Note: In previous releases all instrument ratings had been shown as additional. Total intrument ratings issued can be found in table 21.
E Student certificates issued are estimated.
1/ Not included in total.
2/ Special ratings shown on pilot certificates represented above; not included in total.
3/ Prior to 1995, repairmen were included with mechanics.
4/ Prior to 2001 Control Towr Operators were not included.
N/A Not Applicable
NA Not Available

 

TABLE 22
STUDENT CERTIFICATES ISSUED, BY MONTH:
CALENDAR YEARS 1997 - 2006

YEAR 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1996
Total 61,448 53,576 58,362 55,446 65,421 61,839 58,042 58,278 63,037 56,653
January 4,489 4,248 4,747 5,346 4,954 4,883 4,234 4,641 4,283 4,067
February 3,951 3,824 4,317 4,114 4,602 4,442 5,846 4,592 4,270 4,057
March 4,605 4,687 4,853 4,306 4,897 5,273 5,063 5,607 4,846 4,301
April 4,375 4,486 4,616 4,294 5,313 4,584 4,001 5,407 4,799 4,758
May 5,217 4,706 4,613 4,982 5,196 5,644 4,697 6,069 4,873 5,065
June 6,050 5,509 5,485 5,531 6,197 6,560 5,182 6,474 5,848 5,031
July 5,684 5,306 6,130 6,046 7,151 6,560 5,037 6,363 6,496 5,807
August 7,203 6,284 6,145 6,216 7,278 7,355 6,401 6,045 6,419 5,564
September 6,064 4,698 5,524 5,592 6,204 4,643 5,216 4,401 6,354 5,192
October 5,437 3,985 4,800 5,201 5,621 5,029 4,958 3,592 5,662 5,310
November 4,468 3,443 4,353 3,818 4,287 4,095 4,130 3,016 4,686 4,240
December 3,905 2,400 2,779 N/A 3,721 2,771 3,277 2,071 4,501 3,261
E Student certificates issued are estimated.
The monthly data for most of 1995 contains an estimated component. System reprogramming caused a loss of some data.

 

So what? Of course there's a bunch of new pilots learning to fly every year. Doctors don't say," Oh no! I heard that there's a whole bunch of people that want to go to Med school. I better get out of the business because they are probably gonna be better than me and I'll be out of a job". Even sanitation workers have competition(people of similar sanitation backgrounds). Yes, being a Airline Pilot is very competetive, and you're right. There will never be a shortage for real, but so what? There is probably some babies born literally today that may be airline pilots in 25 years. Good for them! Good luck to them. Doesn't mean it's over for everyone else.

 

An oversupply of qualified pilots means that wages and work rules will continue to deteriorate. Every time the airline industry goes through a down cycle, management will use that to get concessions. Some of those concessions will be regained during up cycles, but not all. 2 steps back, then 1 step forward. That's how I see things going until the oversupply of pilots is somehow corrected. Why pay pilots more, when there are so many out there willing to do the job for less?