I am in the 13 Feb class. There are 13 poolies in the class and there were 4 deferrals. So the pool went through 17 spots (assuming those 4 turn down the next class as well, which would remove them from the pool).

I know it isn't enough data to make a really good guess, but that deferral rate of 23%, if it stood for the rest of the pool, would mean there is really going to be around 270 poolies remaining instead of the 350 names that are on the list. And as the wait time for classes grows from what is now (9 months) the percentage of deferrals should grow.

I'm not a math guy and I have zero airline experience, so you can rip me on my conclusions if you'd like, but that is how I see it from a "caveman pilot" point of view.

 

From our union website, If you want to read it at swalife go to today@swa on 1-17-08 Staff Planning During the Holidays: A Balancing Act.

 

Thanks buddy. I mised it. We did take several deliveries after the last class started in October though so hopefully they will need to hire guys for those planes as well.

 

I heard from the PD that they plan on putting 200 through class this year and maybe start interviewing around the first quarter of '09.

 

You guys said PD said it was 120 now its 200! Man I hope so, is this just some imaginary friend or something like that. I really hope you guys are right.

 

Ace,

You are right. I reread that and it did come off rather grouchy. You should have seen what I edited out.

You need to be careful about the subtle SWA bashers out there. They have been around a long time and sometimes make a dig that is not so obvious. For instance Brown's comment about 2010 doesn't (and we can disagree) doesn't match the numbers that I am seeing. There is too much happening in this industry (oil prices, stock prices all at 52 week lows, etc.) to claim that current plans won't change in a heartbeat. Oh! and be careful about what you glean off of SWAPA's website. No conspiracy theory here but we are in contract negotiations.

The SWA bashers use any number of arguments to justify why they are where they are and must point out flaws that SWA has (real or imaginary) to make their decision seem to be the right one.

 

Brown,

While I apoligize for being so inflamatory I will say that the tone in you post rang a familiar tune for me. I have heard negative posts from many who underneath wish SWA ill. If you did not intend that than I will consider myself wrong. Your last comment would indicate the tone which I refer to might indeed exist.

Misinformation seems to be the way to discredit the opposition. I have done verbal jousting with those that would indicate that SWA current salary level is by default. We can disagree but the current pay situation is what it is. Since I am in the unenviable position of having a life sentence on a 737 (a fate worse that death) and I am doomed to fly six legs a day for the rest of my life (a myth mentioned now and then to make fun of how hard we work) I get a little testy when the misinformation flows so freely.

While I would agree that SWA is no longer the airline it used to be I differ in the conclusion that all the changes have been negative (was that your implication?). We are currently too large for anyone to ignore and if domestic growth is not there then we will follow the money trail but not abandon our current system like so many have.

For the present I will continue to confront misinformation about SWA when it comes up. Which brings us back to your "buddy" and how long he should wait on SWA to hire him. I tend to look at the positive opportunities that might present themselves in the next few years for SWA (if BK doesn't bail someone out again!) and know that predictions are often incorrect.

 

Thats what we want them to believe so all the jerks go somewhere else.ssshhhhhh!

 

I disagree. It has been almost 6 months since anyone has interviewed at SWA. By the middle of March everyone that is in the pool will be required to have a type rating to remain in the pool. I don't know much, but I know pilots are cheap and if they paid 5K-6K for a type rating I can't see them deferring a class at SWA.

 

I am hearing inklings of special interviews for the oldsters wanting to come back...I don't think there are any more than 15-20 but they are supposedly talking about putting them in front of poolies. I think this is a big mistake and total BS, but justice is not an ideal embraced here as much as the good ole boy TX BS. ANything can happen this year for you guys...I would keep your options open and stay in the pool/stay flexible as long as you can...good luck