Phantom Flyer

With the announced reduction in the UAL B-737 and B-747-400 fleets, comes the reality of a reduction in the pilot workforce. The sad truth is that those reductions (furloughs) will occur, it's just a matter of how many and when ?

As of 5/3/2008, there were 7,776 pilots on the seniority list. The most junior pilot holds seniority number 008201 from the 7/1/2007 seniority list. He was hired on 3/31/2008 and his present seniority number is approximately 007768.

The discrepancy in numbers stems from the fact that United "re-adjusts" the pilot seniority list every year on July 1st. The normal age 60 retirements between 7/1/2007 and 12/12/2008 account for a large portion of the difference plus there have been numerous resignations since 7/1/2007. Just what number the most junior man will hold is conjecture but it probably will be around 007764.

The retired pilot who provides the UAL MEC with pilot seniority data has recently concluded his projections for the furloughs and unfortunately, it's not a pretty picture. Keep in mind that his data base is so accurate that United management actually contracts with him for manpower projections.

He has offered a projection of 1,641 furloughs, which will take United all the way back to those furloughed after 9/11/2001.Those in the know, and I'm not one of them, predict that United will wait until after July 1, 2008 when the "new seniority list" is published before announcing any additional furloughs. With the uncertainity of crude oil futures, that number can obviously change.

To those at United, good luck . The only certainty is that the light at the end of the tunnel is in fact a train coming. Hopefully, it will slow down.....

This is being offered as a "head up" those those concerned and a be prepared to everyone as United isn't the only group affected.

Rotorhead

Sad news.

Yellow and black striped handle- PULL HARD

floydbird

Interesting read....I'd like to know the methodology used to get that furlough number.

In UAL ALPA's SSC report for April '08, they show a total headcount in the 737 fleet as 969 pilots.....so how does he get to the 1,641 number?

L'il J.Seinfeld

This really sucks that an entire generation of pilots at United have been the victims of circumstance. 10 years ago you would have been nuts not to go to United and now...

FWIW, I hope for the best. Something needs to be done with the cost of oil as it is ruining our economy and way of life very quickly.

GuppyPuppy

This is part of Osama's plan. He can't beat us militarily, but he can ruin us by destroying our economy. Just like what happened with the Soviet Union. BANKRUPT.

GP

the turtle

Very good observation. Contemporary Russia's economy in rocking...why? Because of oil.

So when we gonna start drilling in ANWAR? Or finally have enough of Chavez and take his?

bifff15

I'm sure the number of folks on LOA's (Mil or personal) or who have quit is / are high and going higher. If UAL only needs to furlough the guys on the 737 they will need to remove the bottom 1000 (rough number) who are actively "FLYING". That means all the guys on LOA will get furloughed as well. The number 1 of 1000 (again rough numbers) is probably 1641 from the bottom of the actual seniority list who is currently flying.

The above is a theory based on a WAG (wild axxed guess).

Good luck United.

pokey9554

Our own government has destroyed our economy with corrupt mortgage lenders, corrupt credit card companies, corrupt policies, Halliburton, Black Water and pretty much their own greedy corruptness. Keep in mind United is shutting down the guppy operation due to fuel costs. The US is the 3rd largest oil producers in the world while being the #1 consumer for it. Saudi Arabia is the #1 oil producing country, and we're not at war with them. Perhaps it's our greediness and superiority complex that has put us in ths position. How is it China with a population 435% larger than the US uses one third of the oil we use in the United States? Also, if you know of Osama'a plan, you might want to tell somebody.

III Corps

If you figure 8 crews per airplane, 100 airplanes is 1600 for a quick rough estimate. Then too you have a HUGE training shift with all the seat swaps. Very costly for ALL involved.

hair-on-fire

Considering the large number of people that didn't return from the last furlough, the large numbers on military LOA, and the small number hired in the last year, I would wager that 1641 furloughs would take you into those that WERE NOT furloughed after 9-11.