flyingkangaroo

Just a question for everyone? With age 65 now in place a reasonable ammount of attrition has slowed at the major airlines, compounding this problem is domestic cutbacks and the bankruptcy of several major airlines with maybe more to come. I'd like to know the rest of your outlooks on our future in this industry given the current economic situation.

My personal outlook may be very different then the rest of you but here is what I think may happen 5-10 years from now. Although many pilots may have retired at 60, there is a very good chance that others will stay untill 65. In 4-5 years when these pilots hit retirement a large wave of hiring will begin at major airlines. Airlines such as American, United and Northwest seem to have many retirements in the next couple of decades ( there are numbers out for what they had before 65 i suppose you can just bump those back 5 years for a guesstimate). I think that in the next couple of years we will see some more bankruptcy filings and likely some airlines will cease to exist, this in turn will reduce capacity but increase pricing power of many airlines. I don't think that after the prices of tickets have gone up they will go down again even if fuel goes down.

During the next five years training will slow dramatically. The barriers to entry into this industry are substantial given the ever increasing cost of training and the unimaginably low starting regional compensation. There will be a slowdown in training and what will result is another regional pilot shortage. What will be different from the last regional hiring shortage is that the major airlines will start retiring large ammounts of pilots and they will start to hire again. Concurrent with these retirements will be an economic upswing which will happen once our economy has fully adjusted to high fuel prices, the upwing will promote airline expansion and more hiring. If a shortage happens at the major airline level and we have pro-union leadership in government then I think as pilots we will be able to start patching the wounds of the last decade.

I may be overly optomistic but I would like to hear your opinions of the future years and what our overall picture will be when we come out of this slump.

UnlimitedAkro

The whole industry is on that crazy up-down cycle it has been on for the last 30 years. No telling how long it will take to recover, and then how long it will take to get worse again. Its been 7 years since Sept. 11th, or roughly 4 years since the industry started climbing back up the hill after Sept. 11th, and we are already sliding down another hill. What are you going to do about it? Just show up to work until they tell you not to show up anymore. And try not to watch the news.

So long term outlook? Ha. "longterm" Good luck trying to figure that out!!

rickair7777

It should be OK, but will always have the potential, even likelyhood, of dramatic ups and downs.

The only things which could screw it up for good are global war or catastrophe with a massive, long-term economic impact, or oil prices which go up and don't come down.

I believe that our current oil spike will not last. Actually, technology exists to make artificial jet fuel and the ATA is "looking into it". Conveniently, the USAF is manufacturing artificial fuel and certifying all of their aircraft to use it...hopefully this will help pave the way for the airlines and the FAA.

I think that you may be right about pilot demographics...there will still be a big retirement surge (5 years late), and the poor regional environment may scare off entry-level pilots.

This could create a high-enough demand that regionals might ask their major partners to not poach their pilots...meaning that you could only get hired at a major which does not have a contract with your regional

Eric Stratton

you do realise that this already goes on....

who said pilot shortage...really. has any airline had to ground airplanes because they can't find pilots. I'm not talking about incorrectly staffing the airline either.

flyingkangaroo

This could create a high-enough demand that regionals might ask their major partners to not poach their pilots...meaning that you could only get hired at a major which does not have a contract with your regional [/QUOTE]

whaaaa???

gremlin

Kangaroo,

If you are a young man you can either find a different career or if you get hired by a major you can weather the furlough or two before you are married or have kids. Let me tell you a furlough sucks when you have kids, had mine come when I was in my late 20s or early 30s before I was married it would have been a vacation. BTW I define a "major" as any place worth spending the rest of your life at because the fun of flying alone is not enough when your paycheck sucks and you are being abused by your employer. That happens at some of what pass for "majors" today. But all is relative, depends where you came from and how bad that place was. Everyone probably can define that differently.

Sorry if that sounded a bit cynical.

The old guys are a mixed bag. Those that still have a good retirement will punch at 60 because time may not be on their side (re: default on pension plan.) I think that may only apply to AA since they still have both plans and can still lump sum. To my knowledge the rest don't have that option. Some guys are just ready to go. My crystal ball says 3/5 will stay to 65 depending on their retirement plans.

Hiring was going at a good clip until "Age 65." That and the rise in oil and recession has made a "perfect storm." Throw in the retirement of 3 pilot planes at UPS and FedEx too. With the announcements of several majors making big cutbacks and the possibility of consolidations it looks like hiring will be quiet for awhile.

To be perfectly honest about your question I have stopped guessing what will happen next. I remember after 9/11 talking with a friend who was just a few months with a major and he was worried about a furlough. I said "It will all be better in 18 months." So maybe my advice isn't worth taking As the prices of everything goes up people will cut the luxuries and flying will be one of them. Eventually if it gets deep enough even UPS and FedEx will feel it. All that said nothing ever lasts forever and I just can't see this as the beginning of the new Dark Ages. As the economy goes so go the airlines. One day all of a sudden there will be a mad scramble to hire at a rapid rate. It always happens. If you are young enough your career will have time to recover. If you are in your 40s and don't have a military retirement to help out I would find another line of work unless your single then party on.

gremlin

gremlin

Don't follow the price of oil either.

de727ups

"I would like to hear your opinions of the future years...."

There will always be airplanes, they will always need people to fly them. At least for quite some time...

Aviatormar

So for a guy who is 23 and is working at a regional (AWAC), should I just get out now, or stick around for another 5 to 7 years and see what happens? What seems to be the general consensus?

rickair7777

Yeeeeees...this has happened before during hiring booms, and there may even be current hand-shake agreements to minimize own-brand poaching.

Think about it...regionals like some turnover, but they don't like excessive training events. If there is a lot of hiring, they might not be able to replace folks fast enough. People who leave for majors are usually CA's and often check airmen. Every guy hired by SWA from SKW typically triggers four training events.

1. RJ CA to Check Airman
2. RJ FO to RJ CA
3. EMB FO to RJ FO
4. New hire EMB

This is well into six figures.