Long Term pilot career outlook...?
06-05-2008, 03:40 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,213
If you are willing to stick with this industry for the long term, it can be pretty rewarding. Just like anything else in life, if you work hard long enough and have a little luck, you will eventually get what you deserve.
06-05-2008, 03:54 PM
#22
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: Dozing for Dollars
Posts: 78
Originally Posted by Aviatormar
So for a guy who is 23 and is working at a regional (AWAC), should I just get out now, or stick around for another 5 to 7 years and see what happens?
Now had I known all this when I was 23 I probably would have chosen a different career but now that I am settled I am glad I stuck with it.
gremlin
06-05-2008, 04:52 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 145
With another republican in the white house (im ok with it) the unions will never regain their strength to readjust salaries, not for a while at least, I believe seat capacity will reduce allowing some airlines to survive, but if oil and other market pressures continue to hit the middle class and business travel and a still lagging dollar will reshape the industry into a severly more disfigured entity than we see today. The "pilot" life will be a middle class job with enourmous responsibilities and uncertain future. I would not on any level advise anyone to enter this career with hopes of the high paying life style. Their is marginal utility sitting in that left seat and when one comes to understand it, they can pursue other more equitable but maybe less gratifying vocation. Im very happy with the company Im with and the plane I fly, but Im not counting on any company or anyone but myself.
I believe EVERY pilot should be treated better than what this industry is offering, the risks are so very high.
I believe EVERY pilot should be treated better than what this industry is offering, the risks are so very high.
06-05-2008, 05:36 PM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 880
The "pilot" life will be a middle class job with enourmous responsibilities and uncertain future. I would not on any level advise anyone to enter this career with hopes of the high paying life style. Their is marginal utility sitting in that left seat and when one comes to understand it, they can pursue other more equitable but maybe less gratifying vocation. Im very happy with the company Im with and the plane I fly, but Im not counting on any company or anyone but myself.
This is the plight of every working person in America. All industries lead to not trusting the company but planning and hoping for yourself and for the future. Look at the last 20 years in Corporate America: ups and downs, pink slips and retirements shed for the bottom line. You just have to find what works for you and then work to make what you want to happen. Timing and lcuk does play a little into this industry. BTW...I have a friend who is a surgeon who is saying the same thing about his career choice. He makes 200k but works over 100 hrs a week.
This is the plight of every working person in America. All industries lead to not trusting the company but planning and hoping for yourself and for the future. Look at the last 20 years in Corporate America: ups and downs, pink slips and retirements shed for the bottom line. You just have to find what works for you and then work to make what you want to happen. Timing and lcuk does play a little into this industry. BTW...I have a friend who is a surgeon who is saying the same thing about his career choice. He makes 200k but works over 100 hrs a week.
06-05-2008, 06:13 PM
#26
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Posts: 30
The question you should ask yourself is what would you be doing if you were not flying? I've seen the other side of the job market very recently and it ain't pretty. Temp to hire, low wages, no benefits and layoffs. Everybody is suffering from high oil prices.
Tighten your seat belts and hang on, we are in for a bumpy ride. Heck even Ed McMahon is having it rough.
Tighten your seat belts and hang on, we are in for a bumpy ride. Heck even Ed McMahon is having it rough.
06-05-2008, 06:20 PM
#27
Owner
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: TC-12B (SELRES)
Posts: 304
Originally Posted by flybynuts
The "pilot" life will be a middle class job with enourmous responsibilities and uncertain future. I would not on any level advise anyone to enter this career with hopes of the high paying life style. Their is marginal utility sitting in that left seat and when one comes to understand it, they can pursue other more equitable but maybe less gratifying vocation. Im very happy with the company Im with and the plane I fly, but Im not counting on any company or anyone but myself.
This is the plight of every working person in America. All industries lead to not trusting the company but planning and hoping for yourself and for the future. Look at the last 20 years in Corporate America: ups and downs, pink slips and retirements shed for the bottom line. You just have to find what works for you and then work to make what you want to happen. Timing and lcuk does play a little into this industry. BTW...I have a friend who is a surgeon who is saying the same thing about his career choice. He makes 200k but works over 100 hrs a week.
This is the plight of every working person in America. All industries lead to not trusting the company but planning and hoping for yourself and for the future. Look at the last 20 years in Corporate America: ups and downs, pink slips and retirements shed for the bottom line. You just have to find what works for you and then work to make what you want to happen. Timing and lcuk does play a little into this industry. BTW...I have a friend who is a surgeon who is saying the same thing about his career choice. He makes 200k but works over 100 hrs a week.
06-05-2008, 06:43 PM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Delta Colors Busholio
Posts: 233
My 2 cents:
The days of making six figures in the military and taking a pay cut to 24K for one year and recovering most your pay the second year are over, pure and simple. More than likely most military veterans will weather their first 10 years after flight training and sign up for the last six to lock in the retirement. I can vouch for this as there was only one military pilot in my NWA new hire class and only one or two in the class ahead and behind.
For the civilian approach. Most guys weather the storm fairly well as the commuters ramped up aggressively and many young Captains quickly found themselves in the 55K to 85K per year salary range as an RJ driver. If you look at the cost of college, which by today's standard is absolutely necessary, and the cost of flight training one could reasonably expect to recover their training costs even at a regional; assuming the regional is around long enough to stay in that ideal target pay range. Pilots for the most part are very intelligent people and have skills that are vital in most organizations. That being said, most pilots could do equally as well continuing an education be it an MBA or whatever you prefer. Forbes routinely states that an MBA from a good school is one of the best returns one can make on an investment; no one is really saying that about airlines these days. The advantage to further education is higher initial pay and in the unfortunate case of layoffs, most can reasonably recover most their pay in short order at a new place of employment; baring the economy doesn't completely tube.
Let's look at aviation under the conditions found today:
Fuel has broken all previous records in US history to date.
Although the airlines weathered a recession in 2001, the recession followed nearly a 15 year period in which airlines made enormous amounts of money and managed to net over a billion dollars each year. To prevent hostile takeovers, many airlines increased wages and services in an effort to actually get capital off their books; no one wants K. I. after them.
This situation today is entirely different. The aviation industry rolled into 2001 with over-capacity and airlines parked older fleets by the hundreds. For years after almost every airline underwent bankruptcies just to mitigate their fiscal responsibilities to almost manageable levels. Although most airlines were able to restore profitability, the net gains were a fraction of a percent compared to the 15 year period before 2001. In a nut shell, these airlines are heading into an even worse recession without the added benefit of a strong decade and a half leading it. I think almost every airline except SWA is smaller than they were in 2000 and capacity cuts of up to 10 to 20% are an initial start heading into this recession; don't forget haw many airlines have and are staring in the face of liquidation as of right now.
As far as super carriers, I simply cannot see a 12,000 pilot airline staying that size for any foreseeable period of time; AMR and TWA didn't maintain that capacity very long and they acquired just before a recession as well.
There will be huge capacity cuts at the regionals. The folks in the left seat will be lucky if they hold onto their 55k to 120K a year jobs and the FOs will hardly see any chance of an upgrade; I can't think of any regional with an FO pay scale that even remotely matches median incomes found in most areas (DTW excluded). If an upgrade presents itself, fantastic, but I can't see any other place to take ones career for the foreseeable future.
The biggest disadvantage I see in this industry, is the loss of seniority and pay when either choosing or being forced to move from one company to the next; call it the whipsaw maneuver and managements have perfected it with scope relief, bankruptcies, flow-back and flow-through provisions.
The final icing on the cake will be the release of the Railway Labor Act and cabotage. At this very moment, Open Skies is flying BA's equipment at less than half the pay rates; think about the ramifications of this. Imagine parking at the gate and seeing an Open Skies crew roll up to take the plane on it's next flight. Further imagine, AMR trying to compete with billionaire Branson's Virgin America where the pilots make marginally better pay than that found at regionals.
Finally, one has to look at their fiscal responsibilities. One cannot even sit in the same cockpit as a guy hired 12 years prior and see themselves on the same level. Many of these senior guys have had very-high paying jobs for upwards of two decades or more before this last down turn. To even imagine that you will have the chance to early retire, or have access to a frozen pension that is still relatively lucrative is absolutely out in left field. While I admire the profession for what it was, respect, excellent compensation and a tremendous retirement, it is hardly that anymore. Today most will find furloughs, marginalized pay and no chance of a defined benefit. Granted some are in the left seat with relatively strong earning power, but I seriously doubt that those taking 10 years to get hired at a major and another 9 years as a 757 FO to break 90K a year will feel that their career has been high yield in any fashion. Sure, the job is fun, but so is motorcycling and other great adventures. In my humble opinion, most will have a very difficult time setting up a sound fiscal future if an airline is a sole source of income. Remember Eastern, Pan Am and TWA, all at one time were pioneers and in the spot light. Those lucky enough to make it out before the end truly made it, many others can be found flying charter or in flow-back positions at regional in their second or third decade of flying.
The days of making six figures in the military and taking a pay cut to 24K for one year and recovering most your pay the second year are over, pure and simple. More than likely most military veterans will weather their first 10 years after flight training and sign up for the last six to lock in the retirement. I can vouch for this as there was only one military pilot in my NWA new hire class and only one or two in the class ahead and behind.
For the civilian approach. Most guys weather the storm fairly well as the commuters ramped up aggressively and many young Captains quickly found themselves in the 55K to 85K per year salary range as an RJ driver. If you look at the cost of college, which by today's standard is absolutely necessary, and the cost of flight training one could reasonably expect to recover their training costs even at a regional; assuming the regional is around long enough to stay in that ideal target pay range. Pilots for the most part are very intelligent people and have skills that are vital in most organizations. That being said, most pilots could do equally as well continuing an education be it an MBA or whatever you prefer. Forbes routinely states that an MBA from a good school is one of the best returns one can make on an investment; no one is really saying that about airlines these days. The advantage to further education is higher initial pay and in the unfortunate case of layoffs, most can reasonably recover most their pay in short order at a new place of employment; baring the economy doesn't completely tube.
Let's look at aviation under the conditions found today:
Fuel has broken all previous records in US history to date.
Although the airlines weathered a recession in 2001, the recession followed nearly a 15 year period in which airlines made enormous amounts of money and managed to net over a billion dollars each year. To prevent hostile takeovers, many airlines increased wages and services in an effort to actually get capital off their books; no one wants K. I. after them.
This situation today is entirely different. The aviation industry rolled into 2001 with over-capacity and airlines parked older fleets by the hundreds. For years after almost every airline underwent bankruptcies just to mitigate their fiscal responsibilities to almost manageable levels. Although most airlines were able to restore profitability, the net gains were a fraction of a percent compared to the 15 year period before 2001. In a nut shell, these airlines are heading into an even worse recession without the added benefit of a strong decade and a half leading it. I think almost every airline except SWA is smaller than they were in 2000 and capacity cuts of up to 10 to 20% are an initial start heading into this recession; don't forget haw many airlines have and are staring in the face of liquidation as of right now.
As far as super carriers, I simply cannot see a 12,000 pilot airline staying that size for any foreseeable period of time; AMR and TWA didn't maintain that capacity very long and they acquired just before a recession as well.
There will be huge capacity cuts at the regionals. The folks in the left seat will be lucky if they hold onto their 55k to 120K a year jobs and the FOs will hardly see any chance of an upgrade; I can't think of any regional with an FO pay scale that even remotely matches median incomes found in most areas (DTW excluded). If an upgrade presents itself, fantastic, but I can't see any other place to take ones career for the foreseeable future.
The biggest disadvantage I see in this industry, is the loss of seniority and pay when either choosing or being forced to move from one company to the next; call it the whipsaw maneuver and managements have perfected it with scope relief, bankruptcies, flow-back and flow-through provisions.
The final icing on the cake will be the release of the Railway Labor Act and cabotage. At this very moment, Open Skies is flying BA's equipment at less than half the pay rates; think about the ramifications of this. Imagine parking at the gate and seeing an Open Skies crew roll up to take the plane on it's next flight. Further imagine, AMR trying to compete with billionaire Branson's Virgin America where the pilots make marginally better pay than that found at regionals.
Finally, one has to look at their fiscal responsibilities. One cannot even sit in the same cockpit as a guy hired 12 years prior and see themselves on the same level. Many of these senior guys have had very-high paying jobs for upwards of two decades or more before this last down turn. To even imagine that you will have the chance to early retire, or have access to a frozen pension that is still relatively lucrative is absolutely out in left field. While I admire the profession for what it was, respect, excellent compensation and a tremendous retirement, it is hardly that anymore. Today most will find furloughs, marginalized pay and no chance of a defined benefit. Granted some are in the left seat with relatively strong earning power, but I seriously doubt that those taking 10 years to get hired at a major and another 9 years as a 757 FO to break 90K a year will feel that their career has been high yield in any fashion. Sure, the job is fun, but so is motorcycling and other great adventures. In my humble opinion, most will have a very difficult time setting up a sound fiscal future if an airline is a sole source of income. Remember Eastern, Pan Am and TWA, all at one time were pioneers and in the spot light. Those lucky enough to make it out before the end truly made it, many others can be found flying charter or in flow-back positions at regional in their second or third decade of flying.
06-05-2008, 06:53 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 767 FO
Posts: 396
Originally Posted by Rotorhead
My 2 cents:
The days of making six figures in the military and taking a pay cut to 24K for one year and recovering most your pay the second year are over, pure and simple. More than likely most military veterans will weather their first 10 years after flight training and sign up for the last six to lock in the retirement. I can vouch for this as there was only one military pilot in my NWA new hire class and only one or two in the class ahead and behind.
For the civilian approach. Most guys weather the storm fairly well as the commuters ramped up aggressively and many young Captains quickly found themselves in the 55K to 85K per year salary range as an RJ driver. If you look at the cost of college, which by today's standard is absolutely necessary, and the cost of flight training one could reasonably expect to recover their training costs even at a regional; assuming the regional is around long enough to stay in that ideal target pay range. Pilots for the most part are very intelligent people and have skills that are vital in most organizations. That being said, most pilots could do equally as well continuing an education be it an MBA or whatever you prefer. Forbes routinely states that an MBA from a good school is one of the best returns one can make on an investment; no one is really saying that about airlines these days. The advantage to further education is higher initial pay and in the unfortunate case of layoffs, most can reasonably recover most their pay in short order at a new place of employment; baring the economy doesn't completely tube.
Let's look at aviation under the conditions found today:
Fuel has broken all previous records in US history to date.
Although the airlines weathered a recession in 2001, the recession followed nearly a 15 year period in which airlines made enormous amounts of money and managed to net over a billion dollars each year. To prevent hostile takeovers, many airlines increased wages and services in an effort to actually get capital off their books; no one wants K. I. after them.
This situation today is entirely different. The aviation industry rolled into 2001 with over-capacity and airlines parked older fleets by the hundreds. For years after almost every airline underwent bankruptcies just to mitigate their fiscal responsibilities to almost manageable levels. Although most airlines were able to restore profitability, the net gains were a fraction of a percent compared to the 15 year period before 2001. In a nut shell, these airlines are heading into an even worse recession without the added benefit of a strong decade and a half leading it. I think almost every airline except SWA is smaller than they were in 2000 and capacity cuts of up to 10 to 20% are an initial start heading into this recession; don't forget haw many airlines have and are staring in the face of liquidation as of right now.
As far as super carriers, I simply cannot see a 12,000 pilot airline staying that size for any foreseeable period of time; AMR and TWA didn't maintain that capacity very long and they acquired just before a recession as well.
There will be huge capacity cuts at the regionals. The folks in the left seat will be lucky if they hold onto their 55k to 120K a year jobs and the FOs will hardly see any chance of an upgrade; I can't think of any regional with an FO pay scale that even remotely matches median incomes found in most areas (DTW excluded). If an upgrade presents itself, fantastic, but I can't see any other place to take ones career for the foreseeable future.
The biggest disadvantage I see in this industry, is the loss of seniority and pay when either choosing or being forced to move from one company to the next; call it the whipsaw maneuver and managements have perfected it with scope relief, bankruptcies, flow-back and flow-through provisions.
The final icing on the cake will be the release of the Railway Labor Act and cabotage. At this very moment, Open Skies is flying BA's equipment at less than half the pay rates; think about the ramifications of this. Imagine parking at the gate and seeing an Open Skies crew roll up to take the plane on it's next flight. Further imagine, AMR trying to compete with billionaire Branson's Virgin America where the pilots make marginally better pay than that found at regionals.
Finally, one has to look at their fiscal responsibilities. One cannot even sit in the same cockpit as a guy hired 12 years prior and see themselves on the same level. Many of these senior guys have had very-high paying jobs for upwards of two decades or more before this last down turn. To even imagine that you will have the chance to early retire, or have access to a frozen pension that is still relatively lucrative is absolutely out in left field. While I admire the profession for what it was, respect, excellent compensation and a tremendous retirement, it is hardly that anymore. Today most will find furloughs, marginalized pay and no chance of a defined benefit. Granted some are in the left seat with relatively strong earning power, but I seriously doubt that those taking 10 years to get hired at a major and another 9 years as a 757 FO to break 90K a year will feel that their career has been high yield in any fashion. Sure, the job is fun, but so is motorcycling and other great adventures. In my humble opinion, most will have a very difficult time setting up a sound fiscal future if an airline is a sole source of income. Remember Eastern, Pan Am and TWA, all at one time were pioneers and in the spot light. Those lucky enough to make it out before the end truly made it, many others can be found flying charter or in flow-back positions at regional in their second or third decade of flying.
The days of making six figures in the military and taking a pay cut to 24K for one year and recovering most your pay the second year are over, pure and simple. More than likely most military veterans will weather their first 10 years after flight training and sign up for the last six to lock in the retirement. I can vouch for this as there was only one military pilot in my NWA new hire class and only one or two in the class ahead and behind.
For the civilian approach. Most guys weather the storm fairly well as the commuters ramped up aggressively and many young Captains quickly found themselves in the 55K to 85K per year salary range as an RJ driver. If you look at the cost of college, which by today's standard is absolutely necessary, and the cost of flight training one could reasonably expect to recover their training costs even at a regional; assuming the regional is around long enough to stay in that ideal target pay range. Pilots for the most part are very intelligent people and have skills that are vital in most organizations. That being said, most pilots could do equally as well continuing an education be it an MBA or whatever you prefer. Forbes routinely states that an MBA from a good school is one of the best returns one can make on an investment; no one is really saying that about airlines these days. The advantage to further education is higher initial pay and in the unfortunate case of layoffs, most can reasonably recover most their pay in short order at a new place of employment; baring the economy doesn't completely tube.
Let's look at aviation under the conditions found today:
Fuel has broken all previous records in US history to date.
Although the airlines weathered a recession in 2001, the recession followed nearly a 15 year period in which airlines made enormous amounts of money and managed to net over a billion dollars each year. To prevent hostile takeovers, many airlines increased wages and services in an effort to actually get capital off their books; no one wants K. I. after them.
This situation today is entirely different. The aviation industry rolled into 2001 with over-capacity and airlines parked older fleets by the hundreds. For years after almost every airline underwent bankruptcies just to mitigate their fiscal responsibilities to almost manageable levels. Although most airlines were able to restore profitability, the net gains were a fraction of a percent compared to the 15 year period before 2001. In a nut shell, these airlines are heading into an even worse recession without the added benefit of a strong decade and a half leading it. I think almost every airline except SWA is smaller than they were in 2000 and capacity cuts of up to 10 to 20% are an initial start heading into this recession; don't forget haw many airlines have and are staring in the face of liquidation as of right now.
As far as super carriers, I simply cannot see a 12,000 pilot airline staying that size for any foreseeable period of time; AMR and TWA didn't maintain that capacity very long and they acquired just before a recession as well.
There will be huge capacity cuts at the regionals. The folks in the left seat will be lucky if they hold onto their 55k to 120K a year jobs and the FOs will hardly see any chance of an upgrade; I can't think of any regional with an FO pay scale that even remotely matches median incomes found in most areas (DTW excluded). If an upgrade presents itself, fantastic, but I can't see any other place to take ones career for the foreseeable future.
The biggest disadvantage I see in this industry, is the loss of seniority and pay when either choosing or being forced to move from one company to the next; call it the whipsaw maneuver and managements have perfected it with scope relief, bankruptcies, flow-back and flow-through provisions.
The final icing on the cake will be the release of the Railway Labor Act and cabotage. At this very moment, Open Skies is flying BA's equipment at less than half the pay rates; think about the ramifications of this. Imagine parking at the gate and seeing an Open Skies crew roll up to take the plane on it's next flight. Further imagine, AMR trying to compete with billionaire Branson's Virgin America where the pilots make marginally better pay than that found at regionals.
Finally, one has to look at their fiscal responsibilities. One cannot even sit in the same cockpit as a guy hired 12 years prior and see themselves on the same level. Many of these senior guys have had very-high paying jobs for upwards of two decades or more before this last down turn. To even imagine that you will have the chance to early retire, or have access to a frozen pension that is still relatively lucrative is absolutely out in left field. While I admire the profession for what it was, respect, excellent compensation and a tremendous retirement, it is hardly that anymore. Today most will find furloughs, marginalized pay and no chance of a defined benefit. Granted some are in the left seat with relatively strong earning power, but I seriously doubt that those taking 10 years to get hired at a major and another 9 years as a 757 FO to break 90K a year will feel that their career has been high yield in any fashion. Sure, the job is fun, but so is motorcycling and other great adventures. In my humble opinion, most will have a very difficult time setting up a sound fiscal future if an airline is a sole source of income. Remember Eastern, Pan Am and TWA, all at one time were pioneers and in the spot light. Those lucky enough to make it out before the end truly made it, many others can be found flying charter or in flow-back positions at regional in their second or third decade of flying.
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