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Old 03-10-2009 | 08:56 AM
  #11  
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Heyas,

It will be extremely interesting to watch the excuse tap dance if furloughs do happen, considering that the ink is still wet on the latest 'no furlough' agreement.

Nu
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Old 03-10-2009 | 08:56 AM
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Agreed. But I would rather be here than anywhere else. We potentially will have $7b at the end of '09. Contrast that with say UAL who is under $3 b in cash on hand and that has few options. LCC is in worse shape. If these airlines fail only two things can happen, the gov't can try and use the "to big to fail" argument and a bailout, or they will let the marketplace decide.
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Old 03-10-2009 | 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by NuGuy
Heyas,

It will be extremely interesting to watch the excuse tap dance if furloughs do happen, considering that the ink is still wet on the latest 'no furlough' agreement.

Nu
Well, those same furloughs could be mitigated by not relaxing our Scope language and bringing those 76 seaters on to DAL property. There is a lot of chatter right now on RAH buying Compass. If that happened, would that negate the flow through?
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy
I think this is only the tip of the iceberg to come. Companies are still downsizing. Until this stops, we will not see any growth in our industry.
Except for the airplanes that we have being delivered.
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:09 AM
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Am I the only one who thinks you guys are being rather naive?

Unemployment is at 8% ... and is forecasted to go much higher. Who cares if DAL buys a new 777 here or there. They'll just park older aircraft.

Our no furlough clauses aren't going to hold if the economy does as forecasted.
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by DAL4EVER
There is a lot of chatter right now on RAH buying Compass. If that happened, would that negate the flow through?
I sure hope this doesn't happen. Being in the bottom 300, the Compass flow is VERY important to me. Not just because of the cost associated furlough protection that it provides. but because if I do get furloughed, I will have a place to go. But it seems like with the current financial environment, it would be very hard for anyone to get financing to buy a regional airline.

Did anyone else get the telephone survey from ALPA? They called me over the weekend - I made a big deal about how important scope protection was to me.
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:11 AM
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No, what did ALPA ask you?
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by DAL4EVER
Well, those same furloughs could be mitigated by not relaxing our Scope language and bringing those 76 seaters on to DAL property. There is a lot of chatter right now on RAH buying Compass. If that happened, would that negate the flow through?
Heyas,

No, a Compass divestiture does not affect the flow. The only way the flow changes is if BOTH parties agree.

I don't think the flow, as it stands, would survive at RAH. Failure to maintain the flow would result in draconian 70 seat cuts, which I don't think mama DAL would be willing to deal with right now.

It's interesting to note, though, that DALs most serious competitors, AMR, CAL, and SWA have little or no 70 seat feed, and I've heard serious talk that the whole 70 seat program is being re-considered along the same lines as the 50 seat program. The are BIG DCI cuts coming, and I've heard that this time next year there will be at least one less wholly owned.

Nu
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:19 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy
Am I the only one who thinks you guys are being rather naive?

Unemployment is at 8% ... and is forecasted to go much higher. Who cares if DAL buys a new 777 here or there. They'll just park older aircraft.

Our no furlough clauses aren't going to hold if the economy does as forecasted.
Be careful.... I was accused of being "bitter" because I brought up this same point.
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Old 03-10-2009 | 09:21 AM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy
Am I the only one who thinks you guys are being rather naive?
YES. But I guess it hurts less if you hope for the best & expect the worst.


Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy
Unemployment is at 8% ... and is forecasted to go much higher. Who cares if DAL buys a new 777 here or there. They'll just park older aircraft.

Our no furlough clauses aren't going to hold if the economy does as forecasted.
Just like the old DC9s that have come out of the desert?
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