Originally Posted by Airhoss

SH,

Your kids health is far more important to me than a petty argument over something as trivial as flying. I hope that all goes well you and your family are in my thoughts. Let us know how this turns out.

Originally Posted by Albief15

Faith, luck, timing, networking, and the ability to execute under pressure

--a great way to enjoy what you have is to have a backup plan. Build a savings nest when you can.

The common thread to each of these folks was that while they were busy they LOVED their airline job. Maybe doing something else reminds us of the good stuff about this flying and why we got into it in the first place.

If you like me are happy--count your blessings and try to share your gratitude. And if you are out there on the fence...there is still room for success, but it’s a tough road and you should be realistic. Like other posters...I see a rebounding economy, some retirements, and a few manning changes by the FAA all pointing to some potential openings in the next few years. If this is still your dream, I think you will have some opportunities.

Originally Posted by JoeyMeatballs

Sky, how is it you would onl be making 72k as a Horizon CA? Granted I pick up as much Advertised trips as I can, and straight pick up (when we had no furloughs) and I was able to make $50,000.00 before taxes (including per diem) at Expressjet as a 3rd yr F/O @ a payrate of $34.46 an hour?

Originally Posted by Boomer

Those must be good workrules to credit 120 hours every month.

At my regional we have lots of 4 hour sits, deadheads, and 32 hour layovers. Our best trips average around 4 hours a day; and many of our 4-days average 15 hours or less. And that's if you're a lineholder.

I'm only a 7th year FO, so I'm on reserve. I'm looking at a 75 hour guarantee at $41.54/hour. I'll be lucky to break $38,000 this year.

Originally Posted by CaptainTeezy

Hey guys I was just wondering in general what you all think about these predictions and if they are likely down the road.

1. The majors will bring all their jet flying back in house. The regionals will go back to primarily all props and bigger props like the Q400. The RJs will be phased out or brought up to mainline. All the RJ pilots will celebrate because they are at a "major" with a 20k pay raise while the major captains take a 50-70k cut in pay.

2. Or they will stay with the fuel inefficient jets because they make a profit due to the fact the pilots dont cost a lot with their low pay. This will cause a massive shrinking of the major airlines. Until Boeings/Airbuses become international and major cargo planes only. And "regionals" will do all the flying within the states, with the possiblity of regional pay going up 20k while the high time major captain pay will come down 75k.

3. In ten years major Captains will max out at 150,000 a year due to the high volume of pilots and constant undercutting of airline to airline and pilot to pilot.

I am just wondering what all you guys think the future will look like in ten years. I hear a lot of talk about a shortage...but I dont think their will be a shortage of pilots...just normal attrition after years of cutbacks and cost reductions.

Originally Posted by SkyHigh

Currently third world countries are trying to ramp up their production of pilots and have to offer high wages to attract western pilots in the mean time. Once they develop their own source of cheaply trained and abundant flight crews then I predict that the high wages are going to plunge as they are able to hire locals instead.

I offer as an example the international shipping fleet. At one time those big ships were maned by highly paid western crews. Now it is all third world people who will take a lot of abuse and get paid peanuts because in their home countries their wages go much farther and so they are happy.

In 10 to 15 years 747-400 crews could fly into JFK from New Deli and then stay with the plane for a month before going home at half the wages that a US pilot would want/need.

Skyhigh

Originally Posted by DYNASTY HVY

How about a list of those countries to back up your claim?



Ally

Originally Posted by SkyHigh

You are suggesting that since I was not having the time of my life as a bush pilot that perhaps I was not meant to fly? My reply is that I did not want to be a bush pilot. I did not ever want to be a regional pilot either. I wanted to be a respected major airline pilot who was well taken care of by my employer and was I willing to climb the ladder to get there.

Flying to me was a profession and not a vision quest. I loved it just as much as anyone else here but my main focus was in making a good living and not in adventure seeking. I am not alone either. Everyone in my college graduating class expected to get a better life out of their flying career as well. In the late 1980's the term "regional airline" did not exist. Horizon air was just a dead end fledgling airline that most of us were hoping to avoid.

Flying is for me. Poverty, long hours, constant moving and decreased financial security is not. Professional aviation has changed considerably since I took my first lesson. Had I known what the future held I certainly would have dropped the yoke long ago as most of my classmates did years prior.

I don't know much about you however given your attitude it would not surprise me if you were not a single guy who was married to the job. To that I say you are in good company. The path to success in aviation today seems lie in the maintenance of low expectations. Don't get married. Don't expect to have much of a home life. Don't plan on anything other than mailman wages and a life of managements choosing. If you are comfortable with that then you are in the right place. I however have a family to support and a life to live.

In answer to your question "why I can't just walk away" :

Just like you flying has been my dream since I was a kid. After spending most of my life trying to make that dream come true those urges don't just go away overnight. The best analogy I can offer is that I quit smoking over 20 years ago and still occasionally want to light up. I am sure that my aviation dreams will perpetually haunt me. After more than 20 years of effort you guys are all that I have left of my flying dreams.

Skyhigh

Originally Posted by CaptainTeezy

Well said Sky...well said.

On another note...I think pilots are going to pay a HEAVY price for demeaning our own jobs. We have degraded ourselves and jets by flying them at the regional level. I personally, as a pilot don't have a respect for this industry as a whole. Everyone accepts that a 250 hour rookie with an RJ course is ready to fly 50+ passengers around. I think the ATP PIC min should be raised to 1,000 PIC in airplanes.

And I am sorry if you disagree, but this is why we are seeing "regional" jets getting bigger and bigger. I fear we have opened a door that can never be closed...the RJs are here and they will soon be carrying 150 seats for mediocre pay. Regionals and majors will merge...and that will be the end to any quality of life with an airline.

Originally Posted by SkyHigh

The last few weeks I have had a lot of nervous idle time on my hands. Thinking about APC stuff has been a welcome distraction.

You guys are the best !!

Skyhigh