CaptainTeezy

Hey guys I was just wondering in general what you all think about these predictions and if they are likely down the road.

1. The majors will bring all their jet flying back in house. The regionals will go back to primarily all props and bigger props like the Q400. The RJs will be phased out or brought up to mainline. All the RJ pilots will celebrate because they are at a "major" with a 20k pay raise while the major captains take a 50-70k cut in pay.

2. Or they will stay with the fuel inefficient jets because they make a profit due to the fact the pilots dont cost a lot with their low pay. This will cause a massive shrinking of the major airlines. Until Boeings/Airbuses become international and major cargo planes only. And "regionals" will do all the flying within the states, with the possiblity of regional pay going up 20k while the high time major captain pay will come down 75k.

3. In ten years major Captains will max out at 150,000 a year due to the high volume of pilots and constant undercutting of airline to airline and pilot to pilot.

I am just wondering what all you guys think the future will look like in ten years. I hear a lot of talk about a shortage...but I dont think their will be a shortage of pilots...just normal attrition after years of cutbacks and cost reductions.

SkyHigh

In the future the legacy airlines will continue to decay until they are essentially regionals flying bigger jets for similar wages.

LLCs will continue to take over the market and force wages downward. Domestic jet captain wages will continue to sink until it reaches a point where no one will show up for the job anymore at around 65 to 85K.

Most overseas flying will be taken over by foreign carriers who pay their pilots third world wages.

The good news is that hopefully it will take longer than ten years before all that comes into fruition.

Skyhigh

CaptainTeezy

I will be honest...I thought I was here because I loved to fly and I loved airplanes...but after being in the aviation workforce for 4 years I just realized something...I was here for the money and the quality of life. And I dont see that looking like it is ever even gonna be a factor. I hope I am wrong...but to sacrifice so much in just 4 years....missing all holidays, being away from my wife for a total of 2 years in my 2.5 year marriage to date (and my wife is 100% supportive of all my sacrifices and being gone), dealing with medical exams, and playing grab ass with the FAA...this isnt worth it. I would have to say for this to be worth it one would have to make $300,000 BEFORE TAXES for ten years. Other than that it is a life wasted making sacrifices for peanuts and a uniform.

de727ups

"No one can really say what will happen.... Skyhigh 5/20/08"

Personally, I think the economy will slowly turn around, and with the retirement picture in the next ten years, people will progress up through the ranks.

There are still good jobs out there. Fedex and UPS Capts are making over 200K. Perhaps some of the other majors can catch back up, over time, to what they used to be and at least equal the cargo outfits. SWA has always been successful and a good job.

For those who enjoy the positives of the career and can overlook the negatives, it's still a good job. Some just aren't cut out for it and never should have listened to the All ATP's or ERAU recruiters making it look so easy and glamorous to be a highly paid airline pilot. It's not that easy and never has been but those who stick it out and persevere might have a shot at a top job. There are no guarantees, so if "might" doesn't cut it for you, then you should check out something else for a career. That said, many like to say be a doctor, dentist, or lawyer, and fly for fun. I don't believe it's really that easy. People whine about aviation at this site but I'm sure in this economy that many careers are suffering. If you know one that's a guaranteed 100K job that anyone can easily get into with no sacrifice or chance of failure, well, please let us know.

Skyhigh would be a Captain today at Horizon Air if he hadn't left for a shot at an LCC 757 job. It would be interesting to hear his comment as to whether being a Captain at Horizon making 80K is a job worthy of his time or if he would have walked from that as well....

boeingt7

I think regionals will take over more of the domestic routes flying emb 190/195 or crj 900/1000 airplanes. Most legacies will be reduced to flying intl routes and probably some coast to coast flights. LCC's will grow and compete with regionals for domestic routes. Like skyhigh said, captains will be making in the 60 to 85k range with f/o's making half that. these wages will be across the board for regionals and lcc's, but legacies will probably pay slightly more.

de727ups

"I would have to say for this to be worth it one would have to make $300,000 BEFORE TAXES for ten years."

I would disagree, though we should all shoot for the top. If you really believe your quote, then you're in the wrong biz. Did you believe in your quote before you took your first flying lesson? Did you know how many pilots make 300K before you took your first flying lesson? I will submit that many, many, people making less than 300K as pilots (after taxes) will still consider themselves successful in the career. YMMV....

SaltyDog

Honesty is good.
If you were in the airlines just for the money. Enjoy your new career as an accountant or attorney. MD doctor will take to long. If in the workforce for only four years, then good time to make the break once you have the replacment in hand. Can be proud you gave it a shot, have no regrets like Skyhigh, make a clean break and enjoy flying one of the bests plans in aviation: General Aviation!
I got into the flying because I do love to fly. Can never do a 9-5 office job and couldnt get a job as an oil Wildcatter.<g> Worked on getting to profitable companies that flew airplanes. The Soutwest, FedEx, UPS's of the business. Takes time, certainly longer than 4 years.
Does in most professions. Even at the 14 year point, may just start getting the real scratch as a Doctor, Lawyer, mid level manageer, etc. But happiness and a good wife should not be taken for granted and your time spent elswhere looking for your niche is well worthwhile. Good luck.

SkyHigh

DE727UPS is back !!!!

I took a chance and grabbed for the next rung on the ladder. I was not getting any younger and the LCC job seemed to be worth the risk. At the time there were several start up LCC's. Some made it while others folded. Hindsight is 20/20 however at the time it was not clear who the winner was going to be.

I had every reason to believe that my LCC would be the next UPS. I mean you essentially did the same thing by jumping to UPS during its fledgling years. The only diffrence between you and I is that my company went under.

In any case my worst nightmare was to end up stuck as a career Horizon Air captain. After ten years I still would be making less than 80K and gone more than half the time. The life of a regional pilot is miserable in comparison to what legacy and LCC guys have to do. By going to National Airlines I nearly doubled my wages and increased my chances a great deal.

Why should some of us be expected to be satisfied with earning less than a third and working harder and longer then others in the industry? I got into aviation because I wanted to fly but also because I wanted a better life for my family and self. Why shouldn't I have taken a shot at the big time?

I took a chance and so does everyone who tries for the next rung. Honestly however if I had known that the best I could do was Horizon Air I would never had taken my first flight lesson. The top or bust !! and I busted, but also had the chance to start a new life.

Skyhigh

SkyHigh

Honestly, we all expected to make 300K as pilots. Why else would a rational person invest more than 150K in college and flight training plus most of a decade in school and time building to get a job that only pays 18K? Even 80K is way too little for the price it takes to get there. A better idea would be to save your money and buy a house and then get a job as a postman.

It just does not make any sense unless there is a significant compensation fairly early on. No one goes into debt for a career that promises them a life of poverty.

Skyhigh

capncrunch

Some honest truths are being told in here. If we pass the word to the next generation, maybe they can avoid some of the pitfalls we have had to endure.

I made it to the majors and am still looking at getting out. The price this business takes on the family is one I failed to estimate correctly.