What to look forward to?
11-15-2009, 03:39 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2009
Posts: 230
Originally Posted by CaptainTeezy
Hey guys I was just wondering in general what you all think about these predictions and if they are likely down the road.
1. The majors will bring all their jet flying back in house. The regionals will go back to primarily all props and bigger props like the Q400. The RJs will be phased out or brought up to mainline. All the RJ pilots will celebrate because they are at a "major" with a 20k pay raise while the major captains take a 50-70k cut in pay.
2. Or they will stay with the fuel inefficient jets because they make a profit due to the fact the pilots dont cost a lot with their low pay. This will cause a massive shrinking of the major airlines. Until Boeings/Airbuses become international and major cargo planes only. And "regionals" will do all the flying within the states, with the possiblity of regional pay going up 20k while the high time major captain pay will come down 75k.
3. In ten years major Captains will max out at 150,000 a year due to the high volume of pilots and constant undercutting of airline to airline and pilot to pilot.
I am just wondering what all you guys think the future will look like in ten years. I hear a lot of talk about a shortage...but I dont think their will be a shortage of pilots...just normal attrition after years of cutbacks and cost reductions.
1. The majors will bring all their jet flying back in house. The regionals will go back to primarily all props and bigger props like the Q400. The RJs will be phased out or brought up to mainline. All the RJ pilots will celebrate because they are at a "major" with a 20k pay raise while the major captains take a 50-70k cut in pay.
2. Or they will stay with the fuel inefficient jets because they make a profit due to the fact the pilots dont cost a lot with their low pay. This will cause a massive shrinking of the major airlines. Until Boeings/Airbuses become international and major cargo planes only. And "regionals" will do all the flying within the states, with the possiblity of regional pay going up 20k while the high time major captain pay will come down 75k.
3. In ten years major Captains will max out at 150,000 a year due to the high volume of pilots and constant undercutting of airline to airline and pilot to pilot.
I am just wondering what all you guys think the future will look like in ten years. I hear a lot of talk about a shortage...but I dont think their will be a shortage of pilots...just normal attrition after years of cutbacks and cost reductions.
Glenn Fletcher Tilton
11-15-2009, 03:48 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: UPS 757/767 Capt ONT
Posts: 4,357
"The only diffrence between you and I is that my company went under."
No, the difference is I didn't quit after I got furloughed. I ended up at UPS because I stuck with it and you ended up out of the biz for your own good reasons. Nothing wrong with you walking away from the biz, but you clearly didn't persevere through your furlough. You walked away and I didn't. I ended up doing well in the biz and you ended up bitter you had to walk away after all the effort. Not all of us would have walked after a 121 757 F/O furlough.
"In any case my worst nightmare was to end up stuck as a career Horizon Air captain."
Well, there you go folks. Some Horizon Capts make 100K and QX is amongst the top tier regionals and owned by Alaska Air Group. That this couldn't be good enough for Skyhigh speaks volumes. You have to ask yourself if making 100K at one of the best regionals is a worthy job. If not, I'd say you should heed Skyhigh's advice and get out. Not everyone is meant for this career. Get into the biz because you love to fly and find that the positives outweigh the negatives. If you can make 100K doing something else, go for it, and let us know how it goes. But I submit many who shoot for UPS Capt could happily live on 100K as a Horizon Capt. I know I could have.
I'll leave you with some of my favorite Skyhigh quotes to judge his credibility:
"A motivated soccer mom can fly an airliner with only a few months of training." 5/13/09
"The FO is one pilot to many in a job that requires a half alert person to begin with. They have superfluous and respect less job that really is "invisible". 5/1/08
"What is so bad with PFT? Who cares? There are short cuts all over the industry. If you can find one then there is no shame in taking it." 11/12/05
"Regional pilots get paid what they are worth. Modern automated planes do not need experienced flight crews anymore." 11/30/08
"It takes more of a sacrifice to become professionally licensed to cut hair than it does to become an airline pilot." 3/3/09
No, the difference is I didn't quit after I got furloughed. I ended up at UPS because I stuck with it and you ended up out of the biz for your own good reasons. Nothing wrong with you walking away from the biz, but you clearly didn't persevere through your furlough. You walked away and I didn't. I ended up doing well in the biz and you ended up bitter you had to walk away after all the effort. Not all of us would have walked after a 121 757 F/O furlough.
"In any case my worst nightmare was to end up stuck as a career Horizon Air captain."
Well, there you go folks. Some Horizon Capts make 100K and QX is amongst the top tier regionals and owned by Alaska Air Group. That this couldn't be good enough for Skyhigh speaks volumes. You have to ask yourself if making 100K at one of the best regionals is a worthy job. If not, I'd say you should heed Skyhigh's advice and get out. Not everyone is meant for this career. Get into the biz because you love to fly and find that the positives outweigh the negatives. If you can make 100K doing something else, go for it, and let us know how it goes. But I submit many who shoot for UPS Capt could happily live on 100K as a Horizon Capt. I know I could have.
I'll leave you with some of my favorite Skyhigh quotes to judge his credibility:
"A motivated soccer mom can fly an airliner with only a few months of training." 5/13/09
"The FO is one pilot to many in a job that requires a half alert person to begin with. They have superfluous and respect less job that really is "invisible". 5/1/08
"What is so bad with PFT? Who cares? There are short cuts all over the industry. If you can find one then there is no shame in taking it." 11/12/05
"Regional pilots get paid what they are worth. Modern automated planes do not need experienced flight crews anymore." 11/30/08
"It takes more of a sacrifice to become professionally licensed to cut hair than it does to become an airline pilot." 3/3/09
11-15-2009, 04:00 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: UPS 757/767 Capt ONT
Posts: 4,357
"I made it to the majors and am still looking at getting out. The price this business takes on the family is one I failed to estimate correctly."
Let us know when you leave and what you find is better. Thanks for taking personal responsibility for underestimating the needs of the career you walked into vs blaming the career for everything that went wrong in your life.
"If we pass the word to the next generation...."
When I was active at Jetcareers, I constantly attacked the easy ways into the career via the All ATP's, the Riddles, the Delta connection academies, the Gulfstreams, and the TAB expresses. Places that promise shortcuts for a high price. It's not worth it. You can't appreciate each step on the way up unless you pay your dues at that step and move on. The moving on has admittedly been hindered recently, but it's ALWAYS been a cyclical biz. I submit that those who persevere through this downturn ready to move up will be the ones who come on here and defend the career as I'm trying to do. No problem with those who walk for their own good reasons. Just don't push those reasons on everyone else cause not all are in your shoes.
Let us know when you leave and what you find is better. Thanks for taking personal responsibility for underestimating the needs of the career you walked into vs blaming the career for everything that went wrong in your life.
"If we pass the word to the next generation...."
When I was active at Jetcareers, I constantly attacked the easy ways into the career via the All ATP's, the Riddles, the Delta connection academies, the Gulfstreams, and the TAB expresses. Places that promise shortcuts for a high price. It's not worth it. You can't appreciate each step on the way up unless you pay your dues at that step and move on. The moving on has admittedly been hindered recently, but it's ALWAYS been a cyclical biz. I submit that those who persevere through this downturn ready to move up will be the ones who come on here and defend the career as I'm trying to do. No problem with those who walk for their own good reasons. Just don't push those reasons on everyone else cause not all are in your shoes.
11-15-2009, 04:02 PM
#14
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Posts: 51
For those of you not in the industry, but have the dream of flying in the airlines, I say go for it. You need to know that it is not an easy road, it can be financially draining, can be hard on families and can be disappointing at times, especially if you have set your expectations too high.
A lot of folks are saying go do something else, as if other industries are so easy to get into or that they provide the perfect lifestyle. No matter what you do will take a lot of effort to achieve and can go through bad times just as the aviation industry is going through. There are no guarantees.
I would suggest having realistic expectations, being financially conservative, and trying to have another skill or option for employment in case of job loss can help relieve some of the stress when times temporarily go bad.
I got into the industry when things were pretty good and thought I'd be making $200,000 a year by now. I'm now at the bottom of a very long furlough list at a legacy and not sure what my next flying job might be. It's frustrating, but if I still wouldn't be happy doing something else. The industry will recover, maybe not to what it once was, but it will recover.
A lot of folks are saying go do something else, as if other industries are so easy to get into or that they provide the perfect lifestyle. No matter what you do will take a lot of effort to achieve and can go through bad times just as the aviation industry is going through. There are no guarantees.
I would suggest having realistic expectations, being financially conservative, and trying to have another skill or option for employment in case of job loss can help relieve some of the stress when times temporarily go bad.
I got into the industry when things were pretty good and thought I'd be making $200,000 a year by now. I'm now at the bottom of a very long furlough list at a legacy and not sure what my next flying job might be. It's frustrating, but if I still wouldn't be happy doing something else. The industry will recover, maybe not to what it once was, but it will recover.
11-15-2009, 04:08 PM
#15
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Delta
Posts: 94
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Honestly, we all expected to make 300K as pilots. Why else would a rational person invest more than 150K in college and flight training plus most of a decade in school and time building to get a job that only pays 18K? Even 80K is way too little for the price it takes to get there. A better idea would be to save your money and buy a house and then get a job as a postman.
It just does not make any sense unless there is a significant compensation fairly early on. No one goes into debt for a career that promises them a life of poverty.
Skyhigh
It just does not make any sense unless there is a significant compensation fairly early on. No one goes into debt for a career that promises them a life of poverty.
Skyhigh
I didn't "expect" to make 300K when I started. I don't expect many things in life and that's one them. And 150K in college and flight training? Well, I would have paid for college anyway, and the remainder is not a bad investment for what I wanted. This career does not promise a life of poverty, you just have to be realistic about it. As with any other career, it's a possibility when you don't apply yourself or get dealt a bad hand.
For you, not flying professionally makes you feel better and you should keep doing that. Your opinion could be considered valuable to some, but don't assume others thought the way you did.
11-15-2009, 04:15 PM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Legacy FO
Posts: 4,096
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Honestly, we all expected to make 300K as pilots. Why else would a rational person invest more than 150K in college and flight training plus most of a decade in school and time building to get a job that only pays 18K? Even 80K is way too little for the price it takes to get there. A better idea would be to save your money and buy a house and then get a job as a postman.
It just does not make any sense unless there is a significant compensation fairly early on. No one goes into debt for a career that promises them a life of poverty.
Skyhigh
It just does not make any sense unless there is a significant compensation fairly early on. No one goes into debt for a career that promises them a life of poverty.
Skyhigh
I can't believe individuals are out there taking $150,000 loans to go to a flight academy. Wow.
11-15-2009, 04:52 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 747
Originally Posted by 72944
For those of you not in the industry, but have the dream of flying in the airlines, I say go for it. You need to know that it is not an easy road, it can be financially draining, can be hard on families and can be disappointing at times, especially if you have set your expectations too high.
A lot of folks are saying go do something else, as if other industries are so easy to get into or that they provide the perfect lifestyle. No matter what you do will take a lot of effort to achieve and can go through bad times just as the aviation industry is going through. There are no guarantees.
I would suggest having realistic expectations, being financially conservative, and trying to have another skill or option for employment in case of job loss can help relieve some of the stress when times temporarily go bad.
I got into the industry when things were pretty good and thought I'd be making $200,000 a year by now. I'm now at the bottom of a very long furlough list at a legacy and not sure what my next flying job might be. It's frustrating, but if I still wouldn't be happy doing something else. The industry will recover, maybe not to what it once was, but it will recover.
A lot of folks are saying go do something else, as if other industries are so easy to get into or that they provide the perfect lifestyle. No matter what you do will take a lot of effort to achieve and can go through bad times just as the aviation industry is going through. There are no guarantees.
I would suggest having realistic expectations, being financially conservative, and trying to have another skill or option for employment in case of job loss can help relieve some of the stress when times temporarily go bad.
I got into the industry when things were pretty good and thought I'd be making $200,000 a year by now. I'm now at the bottom of a very long furlough list at a legacy and not sure what my next flying job might be. It's frustrating, but if I still wouldn't be happy doing something else. The industry will recover, maybe not to what it once was, but it will recover.
If flying an airplane can make you throw everything else out the window then your'e a moron!
11-15-2009, 04:58 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: I only fly multi-winged airplanes.
Posts: 321
Ok...I am not trying to align myself with the arch nemisis of APC, SkyHigh, but he seems to be describing a lot of truths to me. Is he bitter...probably, but it doesnt mean he isnt accurate. I have not scrutinized every single statement he has ever made here, but he seems to be rational from what I have read from him. And as far as my experiences, I am 135 freight pilot, Sky makes sense.
There are practically 5 things that can end your career or damage it greatly vs. 1 potentially high value reward. Risk vs reward is huge, which is why pilots should have high pay. Maybe my perspective is off, but as a pilot I have come up with a pay formula.
Find out what you are worth in the non-aviation world...and DOUBLE IT for any pilot job.
That is the only way it would be worth the long term sacifice that your family would endure do to you being gone with a high risk of losing your income. So if you can make $45,000 as a teacher with full benefits, a normal schedule, and with no medical exam or FAA to worry about putting you out of business, then to fly you would have to pay me $90,000. Feel free to offer your opinions, this is why I started the thread.
There are practically 5 things that can end your career or damage it greatly vs. 1 potentially high value reward. Risk vs reward is huge, which is why pilots should have high pay. Maybe my perspective is off, but as a pilot I have come up with a pay formula.
Find out what you are worth in the non-aviation world...and DOUBLE IT for any pilot job.
That is the only way it would be worth the long term sacifice that your family would endure do to you being gone with a high risk of losing your income. So if you can make $45,000 as a teacher with full benefits, a normal schedule, and with no medical exam or FAA to worry about putting you out of business, then to fly you would have to pay me $90,000. Feel free to offer your opinions, this is why I started the thread.
11-15-2009, 05:01 PM
#19
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: I only fly multi-winged airplanes.
Posts: 321
Originally Posted by Joachim
In other words: ITS A **** JOB.
If flying an airplane can make you throw everything else out the window then your'e a moron!
If flying an airplane can make you throw everything else out the window then your'e a moron!
Exactly...the day it becomes a just a job is the day it is no longer worth it.
Also, to say good luck making $100,000 in another career is not logical. $100,000 as a pilot is not the same as making $100,000 at a 9-5 job. Like I said before making $100,000 as a pilot is like making $50,000 with a normal job.
11-15-2009, 05:14 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: UPS 757/767 Capt ONT
Posts: 4,357
"So if you can make $45,000 as a teacher with full benefits, a normal schedule, and with no medical exam or FAA to worry about putting you out of business, then to fly you would have to pay me $90,000."
It depends. If you want to be a teacher rather than a pilot, than knock yerself out. I know teaching jobs they couldn't pay me 200K to do. Others I'd almost do for nothing based on my personal outlook on what's important in life.
But that's just me.
I know of 45K 135 freight jobs where all you need to do is show up, fly to a little town, sit all day, fly back to your base, and repeat 20 days a month. If you live at either end, you're home every day, and you only spend an honest 4 hours on duty per duty day. I could see it being a much better deal for 45K than teaching for the same amount. Teachers do get the summer off, which is a bonus, but being a good teacher is way more than an 8 to 5 job. And 8 to 5 is way more hours than the 135 freight job I'm thinking of. The guy doing the job I'm thinking of actually had a second job during his time in the small town rather than sitting around.
I throw out the Skyhigh quotes cause readers should see his posting history. Myself, I've never been able to get past his outrageous side to see through to the good stuff. That's just me. YMMV...
It depends. If you want to be a teacher rather than a pilot, than knock yerself out. I know teaching jobs they couldn't pay me 200K to do. Others I'd almost do for nothing based on my personal outlook on what's important in life.
But that's just me.
I know of 45K 135 freight jobs where all you need to do is show up, fly to a little town, sit all day, fly back to your base, and repeat 20 days a month. If you live at either end, you're home every day, and you only spend an honest 4 hours on duty per duty day. I could see it being a much better deal for 45K than teaching for the same amount. Teachers do get the summer off, which is a bonus, but being a good teacher is way more than an 8 to 5 job. And 8 to 5 is way more hours than the 135 freight job I'm thinking of. The guy doing the job I'm thinking of actually had a second job during his time in the small town rather than sitting around.
I throw out the Skyhigh quotes cause readers should see his posting history. Myself, I've never been able to get past his outrageous side to see through to the good stuff. That's just me. YMMV...
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