What to look forward to?
 

Hey guys I was just wondering in general what you all think about these predictions and if they are likely down the road.

1. The majors will bring all their jet flying back in house. The regionals will go back to primarily all props and bigger props like the Q400. The RJs will be phased out or brought up to mainline. All the RJ pilots will celebrate because they are at a "major" with a 20k pay raise while the major captains take a 50-70k cut in pay.

2. Or they will stay with the fuel inefficient jets because they make a profit due to the fact the pilots dont cost a lot with their low pay. This will cause a massive shrinking of the major airlines. Until Boeings/Airbuses become international and major cargo planes only. And "regionals" will do all the flying within the states, with the possiblity of regional pay going up 20k while the high time major captain pay will come down 75k.

3. In ten years major Captains will max out at 150,000 a year due to the high volume of pilots and constant undercutting of airline to airline and pilot to pilot.

I am just wondering what all you guys think the future will look like in ten years. I hear a lot of talk about a shortage...but I dont think their will be a shortage of pilots...just normal attrition after years of cutbacks and cost reductions.

Future
 

In the future the legacy airlines will continue to decay until they are essentially regionals flying bigger jets for similar wages.

LLCs will continue to take over the market and force wages downward. Domestic jet captain wages will continue to sink until it reaches a point where no one will show up for the job anymore at around 65 to 85K.

Most overseas flying will be taken over by foreign carriers who pay their pilots third world wages.

The good news is that hopefully it will take longer than ten years before all that comes into fruition.

Skyhigh

I will be honest...I thought I was here because I loved to fly and I loved airplanes...but after being in the aviation workforce for 4 years I just realized something...I was here for the money and the quality of life. And I dont see that looking like it is ever even gonna be a factor. I hope I am wrong...but to sacrifice so much in just 4 years....missing all holidays, being away from my wife for a total of 2 years in my 2.5 year marriage to date (and my wife is 100% supportive of all my sacrifices and being gone), dealing with medical exams, and playing grab ass with the FAA...this isnt worth it. I would have to say for this to be worth it one would have to make $300,000 BEFORE TAXES for ten years. Other than that it is a life wasted making sacrifices for peanuts and a uniform.

"No one can really say what will happen.... Skyhigh 5/20/08"

Personally, I think the economy will slowly turn around, and with the retirement picture in the next ten years, people will progress up through the ranks.

There are still good jobs out there. Fedex and UPS Capts are making over 200K. Perhaps some of the other majors can catch back up, over time, to what they used to be and at least equal the cargo outfits. SWA has always been successful and a good job.

For those who enjoy the positives of the career and can overlook the negatives, it's still a good job. Some just aren't cut out for it and never should have listened to the All ATP's or ERAU recruiters making it look so easy and glamorous to be a highly paid airline pilot. It's not that easy and never has been but those who stick it out and persevere might have a shot at a top job. There are no guarantees, so if "might" doesn't cut it for you, then you should check out something else for a career. That said, many like to say be a doctor, dentist, or lawyer, and fly for fun. I don't believe it's really that easy. People whine about aviation at this site but I'm sure in this economy that many careers are suffering. If you know one that's a guaranteed 100K job that anyone can easily get into with no sacrifice or chance of failure, well, please let us know.

Skyhigh would be a Captain today at Horizon Air if he hadn't left for a shot at an LCC 757 job. It would be interesting to hear his comment as to whether being a Captain at Horizon making 80K is a job worthy of his time or if he would have walked from that as well....

I think regionals will take over more of the domestic routes flying emb 190/195 or crj 900/1000 airplanes. Most legacies will be reduced to flying intl routes and probably some coast to coast flights. LCC's will grow and compete with regionals for domestic routes. Like skyhigh said, captains will be making in the 60 to 85k range with f/o's making half that. these wages will be across the board for regionals and lcc's, but legacies will probably pay slightly more.

"I would have to say for this to be worth it one would have to make $300,000 BEFORE TAXES for ten years."

I would disagree, though we should all shoot for the top. If you really believe your quote, then you're in the wrong biz. Did you believe in your quote before you took your first flying lesson? Did you know how many pilots make 300K before you took your first flying lesson? I will submit that many, many, people making less than 300K as pilots (after taxes) will still consider themselves successful in the career. YMMV....

Honesty is good.
If you were in the airlines just for the money. Enjoy your new career as an accountant or attorney. MD doctor will take to long. If in the workforce for only four years, then good time to make the break once you have the replacment in hand. Can be proud you gave it a shot, have no regrets like Skyhigh, make a clean break and enjoy flying one of the bests plans in aviation: General Aviation!
I got into the flying because I do love to fly. Can never do a 9-5 office job and couldnt get a job as an oil Wildcatter.<g> Worked on getting to profitable companies that flew airplanes. The Soutwest, FedEx, UPS's of the business. Takes time, certainly longer than 4 years.
Does in most professions. Even at the 14 year point, may just start getting the real scratch as a Doctor, Lawyer, mid level manageer, etc. But happiness and a good wife should not be taken for granted and your time spent elswhere looking for your niche is well worthwhile. Good luck.

Yea
 

DE727UPS is back !!!!

I took a chance and grabbed for the next rung on the ladder. I was not getting any younger and the LCC job seemed to be worth the risk. At the time there were several start up LCC's. Some made it while others folded. Hindsight is 20/20 however at the time it was not clear who the winner was going to be.

I had every reason to believe that my LCC would be the next UPS. I mean you essentially did the same thing by jumping to UPS during its fledgling years. The only diffrence between you and I is that my company went under.

In any case my worst nightmare was to end up stuck as a career Horizon Air captain. After ten years I still would be making less than 80K and gone more than half the time. The life of a regional pilot is miserable in comparison to what legacy and LCC guys have to do. By going to National Airlines I nearly doubled my wages and increased my chances a great deal.

Why should some of us be expected to be satisfied with earning less than a third and working harder and longer then others in the industry? I got into aviation because I wanted to fly but also because I wanted a better life for my family and self. Why shouldn't I have taken a shot at the big time?

I took a chance and so does everyone who tries for the next rung. Honestly however if I had known that the best I could do was Horizon Air I would never had taken my first flight lesson. The top or bust !! and I busted, but also had the chance to start a new life.

Skyhigh

Honestly
 

Honestly, we all expected to make 300K as pilots. Why else would a rational person invest more than 150K in college and flight training plus most of a decade in school and time building to get a job that only pays 18K? Even 80K is way too little for the price it takes to get there. A better idea would be to save your money and buy a house and then get a job as a postman.

It just does not make any sense unless there is a significant compensation fairly early on. No one goes into debt for a career that promises them a life of poverty.

Skyhigh

Some honest truths are being told in here. If we pass the word to the next generation, maybe they can avoid some of the pitfalls we have had to endure.

I made it to the majors and am still looking at getting out. The price this business takes on the family is one I failed to estimate correctly.

Three words....


Glenn Fletcher Tilton

http://edgehopper.com/wp-content/upl...12/tilton1.jpg

"The only diffrence between you and I is that my company went under."

No, the difference is I didn't quit after I got furloughed. I ended up at UPS because I stuck with it and you ended up out of the biz for your own good reasons. Nothing wrong with you walking away from the biz, but you clearly didn't persevere through your furlough. You walked away and I didn't. I ended up doing well in the biz and you ended up bitter you had to walk away after all the effort. Not all of us would have walked after a 121 757 F/O furlough.

"In any case my worst nightmare was to end up stuck as a career Horizon Air captain."

Well, there you go folks. Some Horizon Capts make 100K and QX is amongst the top tier regionals and owned by Alaska Air Group. That this couldn't be good enough for Skyhigh speaks volumes. You have to ask yourself if making 100K at one of the best regionals is a worthy job. If not, I'd say you should heed Skyhigh's advice and get out. Not everyone is meant for this career. Get into the biz because you love to fly and find that the positives outweigh the negatives. If you can make 100K doing something else, go for it, and let us know how it goes. But I submit many who shoot for UPS Capt could happily live on 100K as a Horizon Capt. I know I could have.

I'll leave you with some of my favorite Skyhigh quotes to judge his credibility:

"A motivated soccer mom can fly an airliner with only a few months of training." 5/13/09

"The FO is one pilot to many in a job that requires a half alert person to begin with. They have superfluous and respect less job that really is "invisible". 5/1/08



"What is so bad with PFT? Who cares? There are short cuts all over the industry. If you can find one then there is no shame in taking it." 11/12/05

"Regional pilots get paid what they are worth. Modern automated planes do not need experienced flight crews anymore." 11/30/08

"It takes more of a sacrifice to become professionally licensed to cut hair than it does to become an airline pilot." 3/3/09

"I made it to the majors and am still looking at getting out. The price this business takes on the family is one I failed to estimate correctly."

Let us know when you leave and what you find is better. Thanks for taking personal responsibility for underestimating the needs of the career you walked into vs blaming the career for everything that went wrong in your life.

"If we pass the word to the next generation...."

When I was active at Jetcareers, I constantly attacked the easy ways into the career via the All ATP's, the Riddles, the Delta connection academies, the Gulfstreams, and the TAB expresses. Places that promise shortcuts for a high price. It's not worth it. You can't appreciate each step on the way up unless you pay your dues at that step and move on. The moving on has admittedly been hindered recently, but it's ALWAYS been a cyclical biz. I submit that those who persevere through this downturn ready to move up will be the ones who come on here and defend the career as I'm trying to do. No problem with those who walk for their own good reasons. Just don't push those reasons on everyone else cause not all are in your shoes.

For those of you not in the industry, but have the dream of flying in the airlines, I say go for it. You need to know that it is not an easy road, it can be financially draining, can be hard on families and can be disappointing at times, especially if you have set your expectations too high.

A lot of folks are saying go do something else, as if other industries are so easy to get into or that they provide the perfect lifestyle. No matter what you do will take a lot of effort to achieve and can go through bad times just as the aviation industry is going through. There are no guarantees.

I would suggest having realistic expectations, being financially conservative, and trying to have another skill or option for employment in case of job loss can help relieve some of the stress when times temporarily go bad.

I got into the industry when things were pretty good and thought I'd be making $200,000 a year by now. I'm now at the bottom of a very long furlough list at a legacy and not sure what my next flying job might be. It's frustrating, but if I still wouldn't be happy doing something else. The industry will recover, maybe not to what it once was, but it will recover.

I didn't "expect" to make 300K when I started. I don't expect many things in life and that's one them. And 150K in college and flight training? Well, I would have paid for college anyway, and the remainder is not a bad investment for what I wanted. This career does not promise a life of poverty, you just have to be realistic about it. As with any other career, it's a possibility when you don't apply yourself or get dealt a bad hand.

For you, not flying professionally makes you feel better and you should keep doing that. Your opinion could be considered valuable to some, but don't assume others thought the way you did.

SkyHigh, I'm not coming down on you. But seriously, did you believe pilots were making $300,000 a year? Did you do any research into the career field?

I can't believe individuals are out there taking $150,000 loans to go to a flight academy. Wow.

In other words: ITS A **** JOB.

If flying an airplane can make you throw everything else out the window then your'e a moron!

Ok...I am not trying to align myself with the arch nemisis of APC, SkyHigh, but he seems to be describing a lot of truths to me. Is he bitter...probably, but it doesnt mean he isnt accurate. I have not scrutinized every single statement he has ever made here, but he seems to be rational from what I have read from him. And as far as my experiences, I am 135 freight pilot, Sky makes sense.

There are practically 5 things that can end your career or damage it greatly vs. 1 potentially high value reward. Risk vs reward is huge, which is why pilots should have high pay. Maybe my perspective is off, but as a pilot I have come up with a pay formula.

Find out what you are worth in the non-aviation world...and DOUBLE IT for any pilot job.

That is the only way it would be worth the long term sacifice that your family would endure do to you being gone with a high risk of losing your income. So if you can make $45,000 as a teacher with full benefits, a normal schedule, and with no medical exam or FAA to worry about putting you out of business, then to fly you would have to pay me $90,000. Feel free to offer your opinions, this is why I started the thread.

Exactly...the day it becomes a just a job is the day it is no longer worth it.

Also, to say good luck making $100,000 in another career is not logical. $100,000 as a pilot is not the same as making $100,000 at a 9-5 job. Like I said before making $100,000 as a pilot is like making $50,000 with a normal job.

"So if you can make $45,000 as a teacher with full benefits, a normal schedule, and with no medical exam or FAA to worry about putting you out of business, then to fly you would have to pay me $90,000."

It depends. If you want to be a teacher rather than a pilot, than knock yerself out. I know teaching jobs they couldn't pay me 200K to do. Others I'd almost do for nothing based on my personal outlook on what's important in life.

But that's just me.

I know of 45K 135 freight jobs where all you need to do is show up, fly to a little town, sit all day, fly back to your base, and repeat 20 days a month. If you live at either end, you're home every day, and you only spend an honest 4 hours on duty per duty day. I could see it being a much better deal for 45K than teaching for the same amount. Teachers do get the summer off, which is a bonus, but being a good teacher is way more than an 8 to 5 job. And 8 to 5 is way more hours than the 135 freight job I'm thinking of. The guy doing the job I'm thinking of actually had a second job during his time in the small town rather than sitting around.

I throw out the Skyhigh quotes cause readers should see his posting history. Myself, I've never been able to get past his outrageous side to see through to the good stuff. That's just me. YMMV...

de727,

I agree with most of what you are saying. But, I wouldn't exactly say thay Riddle promises shortcuts for a high price. Easy way into the career? No. High price? Yes. Shortcut? No. Unless I missed that class. :rolleyes:

New K Now

Maybe I meet your criteria for being a moron, but I'm not bitter.

I don't think anyone here has said you have to throw everything away for this career. It's only been said that it has it challenges, just as every career has, and that you should be aware of them and prepared. If you are not willing to deal with the challenges, then yes, you should try something else.

It is natural human behavior to justify one's chosen path. Skyhigh's posts, even those reposted by de757ups still ring mostly true unless one chooses not to believe them.

And ups' posts make good sense too. However, they are from the viewpoint of one who made it through - largely due to luck.

Perhaps the truth lies in the middle.

I've got a good SWA captain friend who I've known for years. Got into flying around age 30 after working for Black and Decker for a number of years in a non flying job. Basically got ratings, flew in England for a while primarily in the corporate world, then got on with SWA during the ramp up period (right place/right time) and is topping 200k now.

My attempt led to furlough after 18 months on the job with no hope of funding my family for the next many years. He'll be the first to tell me (and has done so) that one's ultimate fate is heavily weighted in the luck department.

Is It Just Me?
 

Does Tilton kind of look like the "PC-Nerd" on the "Cool Apple vs Nerd PC" commercials?

What I WISH the Future Held
 

Don't know what's in store, but I wish:

1. Major carriers had a full arsenal of airplanes to meet market demand. Big jets for big markets, small jets for new markets, and turboprops for small markets. Regionals/Feeders wouldn't exist.

2. Companies and Unions would meet and say "We want to make money, and we want you to make money"....and would work collectively to make it so, instead of fighting each other.

3. Some re-regulation of the market. Don't give an operating certificate to every entrant just because they can complete the paperwork. Show that they are adding previously unseen service, or competition...but the FAA (or CAB, for those who remember) would keep the total number of ASMs reasonable to ensure at least break-even for operators, and a fair price for consumers.

4. Regulation of Fares. No tickets below expected operating cost.

5. Simplification of Fares. No Wallet-gouging because you have to buy a ticket last-minute for a dying relative. How can a one-way ticket cost twice what a round-trip costs? Would you buy groceries this way? A house? A car? Everytime I buy a ticket, I feel like I'm playing 'Wheel of Fortune".....

Anyway, that's what I would like. But I don't think it will happen.

Making $100k as a regional captain is great. It's the 10-15 years of student loans and being an fo living on oatmeal doing 4 day trips that sucks.

I dare anyone to look up how much flight training costs now. I guarantee you'll be shocked. If you're creative and willing to have it take 10 years, $40k might do it. Otherwise good luck coming in under $100k.

As has been said, I got into this job for pay and QOL. Financially it has not paid off. QOL is marginal. Did I make the right decision? Do I have any spare $ or time to pursue something else, no. Look we all love flying, but we need to make a respectable wage also. I shouldn't be responsible for peoples lives then come home and envy the lifestyle of my neighbor the cabinet maker.

Occasionally I've had access to a pretty good crystal ball. Here's a few predictions:

The "sweet spot" in the domestic market is going to move from 70 to 100 seats to 130 to 150 seats. Barring changes in scope, this will make growth opportunities as outsourced flying return to mainline aircraft. The perfect platform for this flying has not been built yet. The AirBus and Boeing products are too heavy and too capable (expensive) for this market.

Age 65 retirements are right around the corner. The hiring wave in 2013 to 2014 will be substantial and will continue for a while.

Profitability will remain illusive for our employers. Government will fail to come through on airspace modernization and will seek to penalize aviation as they see carbon taxes as a way to raise revenue and look good at the same time. Terrorism, fuel prices and contagion will continue to be difficult to plan for risk factors.

Due to the lack of profitability fleet renewal among the more established airlines will be slower than it needs to be. It will be difficult to finance the aircraft needed to remain leaders in the international marketplace.

Labor will continue to face threats from alter ego low wage competition. Multi crew licensing and alien ab - initio programs will supply the marketplace reasonably well. The supply of General Aviation and Military pilots will dry up. General Aviation itself is dying and it's death will also reduce the interest in corporate aviation except for the very high end.

There will be some small market resurgence for turboprop flying. The efficiency and capability of these platforms simply make so much better sense for a lot of the RJ flying being performed today.

Airline wages will increase, but will trend with, or trail real inflation. ( even FedEx and UPS pilots make substantially less than they used to as inflation has reduced their real earnings ).

Shortcuts
 

The airlines are cyclical but times and conditions definitely are changing. Even you have to admit that things have steady gotten worse.

My main issue is that I believe that most who enter the profession have the same overall needs and expectation as I do. They need to make enough to justify the sacrifices it takes to get there and the continuing sacrifices it takes to remain in the profession. In addition they also need access to a decent quality of life.

I do not believe that those needs are commonly able to be met as a pilot anymore. You mentioned that each of us are different and we are. I have a wife and family to think about. If I can not insure the ability to provide for them financially and the ability to build a decent lifestyle then I can not pursue aviation as a career. I reached a place in my career where the only place I could go was back to 18K per year.

I choose my family over the crummy opportunities aviation afforded me. I paid my dues. How many times is a pilot supposed to get furloughed before it is time to try something else? There just is not enough room at the top for everyone and to me I would rather work as a mailman over being gone 398 hours a month like I was at Horizon. That is no life and no way to live.

Skyhigh

All ATP's expensive? I think I paid less than $2,000 for an initial commercial / multi / instrument /Commercial & ATP written.

Yeah, if you do the entire career training it IS expensive. But if you fly independently and just use them to sharp shoot the rating, it is cheap, fast and effective.

I've always been suspicious of the programs that have a flight instructor in the airplane and it seems like 4 people are all logging flight time in a light twin. I'm even more suspicious of folks logging sim time. But, it is easy to side step those wastes of time and money if the guy is motivated and willing to spend some time networking with other pilots at their local airport. I've let several pilots fly & log some time in my airplanes over the years, just paying back the many that helped me fill in those precious first 1200 hours.

Shoes
 

De727UPS,

Have you ever considered that perhaps your needs do not match what most others here and in aviation have? How can you relate to the hardships that a family person has?

It is no fun to be gone more than half the time when you have small children at home while making slave wages. It isn't worth it either.

Skyhigh

"My main issue is that I believe that most who enter the profession have the same overall needs and expectation as I do.:

No, I don't agree. You didn't find being a 100K a year regional Capt as worthy. I think that most who enter the profession would say that if that is the average end result, with the possibility of going farther, that making 100K working 4 on, 3 off, and flying, is worthy. I appreciate your comments that people should be garbage men, plumbers, teachers, or work for the post office, but I reject your assertion that MOST people would find a 100K a year Horizon Capt job as not worth sticking with the career for. I just don't agree....

Sky,

Make your own decisions. For me, I sure got tired of a two hour drive each way to the office, then eight to sixteen hours at work. A meal, bed, start at 05:30 the next day, stay out late with the co workers Friday, work Saturday, laundry & fix the house Sunday, then repeat. I made a lot of money and did not have time to enjoy it. I talked my employer into leasing an airplane for me & that was the only part of the job I really relaxed in and enjoyed.

Making more than $100K is pretty tough in the Corporate world. Of course it can be done, but usually a few years of service and some good luck with promotional opportunities is needed. Unlike the seniority list, it is hard to be assured that your Company will not acquire, or be acquired, or worse re-organize you, right out of the promotion you worked a decade for.

I LOVE that it is required that I get 8 hours of rest every day. In reality there are few days where there is not time for a good run, a meal with an interesting crew member, a couple of nice flights which is followed by three or four days with my family.

Different strokes for different folks. I gave up a really good gig for a $18K a year job with a regional. In a few years it was a $70K a year job and again it was necessary to take a step backwards to fly for a major. But looking back on it, the decision to pursue this avocation was a good one.

So true!!!

When anyone asks for my advice the subject I tell them the same thing a UAL pilot told me years ago. Find the cheapest, slowest airplane around. You're trying to build time. Whether it's a new Piper with GPS, glass, and autopilot or a 1965 C-150 you're still logging single engine piston time.

I'm not sure what flight training costs are these days but no way should anyone be paying anything close to 150K for training.

I totally agree brother, that's why I left 121. I am just glad that it was sooner than later. Good luck with your decision.

I enjoy 121. Wouldn't want to do much else. I wish that experience counted for something. If you get furloughed, it would be nice if you could move to company b, and pick up where you left off (national seniority list).

I think the barrier to enter 121 is getting higher, which is a good thing. I think the way to do flight training is to buy a 152. The local flight school wants $110 for a trainer (plus $35 for a cfi), and the seminole is $240 (plus $40 for a cfi). Do the math on that. Ridiculous if you ask me.

100k
 

I like how you throw 100K around as if that is an actual amount that I could have earned at Horizon Air by now. By my math it is 72K. I am still in contact with people from my new hire class and they do not make 100K either. In addition I was gone more than most pilots and worked harder because of the short leg lengths in the dash. My time away from base was punishing. More than twice as much as when I flew for National Airlines. From what I hear it is five on and three off.

Another thing for you to consider is that during my time there we were on pre-contract wages. My income potential was considerably less than what they have now. Had I known that a better contract was on its way perhaps I would have made my choices differently. At the time however it was a sweatshop that was slow to upgrade and offered humiliating wages. I needed to make a living to support a family on not $492 every two weeks.

72K in itself is not all that bad but when you consider the 20 years of poverty, pain and suffering it took for me to get there then it stinks on ice. Had I known that this was a realistic career destination then I definitely would have skipped the four years of college and flight training, chosen to miss out on all my years of living in a bug infested hut in Alaska and gotten a job as a mailman straight away and been close to retirement by now.

I love to fly just as anyone else here but I needed to make a living and have the ability for a life. I made sacrifices so that I could earn a better life for my family and I. It is not worth it to me to have to live in the city, earn garbage man wages and then be gone more than half the time. If you were in my shoes then perhaps you would see it differently.

I am afflicted by the nagging thought that I can do better.

Skyhigh

It's difficult to predict what will happen in the Part 121 flying world in the next year or two, let alone in 10 years because there are too many variables that changes unpredictably.

However, I do not see your number (1) scenario happening. I think the number of regionals will go down in numbers but I do not see regionals going back to flying all turboprops. Most major airlines that outsources its domestic flying is reducing the number of turboprops flying at regionals. People living in small towns that are currently being served by RJs and turboprops like Saabs will have to drive to bigger cities to catch their flights.

Even with large retirements predicted starting 2012, it is more likely majors will manage with less pilots. DAL is saying even with the new duty and rest requirement that is being discussed, it will be a washout or at best DAL may need 100 more pilots.

I think a more likely scenario is that majors will concentrate on international flying and most domestic flying will be delegated to regionals. For some it would done by wholly owned regionals. For others, like UAL, it will be done by any contract regionals UAL chooses. As for international flying, it looks like it will be taken over by joint alliance concepts and eventually some foreign carriers may wind up merging with US carriers and with each other. I think it's already in the works. BA will be merging with the Spanish carrier, and DAL may wind up sharing most international flying along with its profits and expenses with KLM and Air France, making them virtually indistinguishable in their operations.

Is it worth staying in this business? Like others have pointed out, it depends on whether flying is your passion or not. I have always loved flying so I will stay put either 121 or 135 flying. But it also means I am willing to take the risk when there are opportunities for me to move forward. For this reason, I cannot fault SkyHigh for leaving Horizon for a start up LCC. I probably would have done the same thing. After all why stay at Horizon for 10 years when you have a chance to fly B757s for a higher pay. Who can gurantee anything in this business.

The difference between SkyHigh and I, though, is I would not have given up trying to get another flying job, even if it means working in an office for several years. I would have kept on trying. But then again, I am not married with kids like SkyHigh. Given his circumstances, who can blame him for dropping out? I do value SkyHigh's input because he presents the other side of the coin and what can happen to you if run out of luck in this extremely unstable aviation business. I know plenty of examples where superbly talented pilots wind up being unemployed.

Yep. Anything I spent on learning flying was made back and then some by cleaning, waxing, fixing and selling the old slow airplanes I trained in.

Spending $150,000 and chasing girls around the beach would have been fun, but isn't necessary.

Piper Tri Pacer or Colt, $15,000 and 6 Gallons Per Hour. Worth as much or more when you sell it as when you buy it.

Piper Twin Commanche ~ $50,000 and 12 to 14 GPH. You can find partnerships on Comanches and the remaining Apaches out there.

No one wants to do it that way any more. They'd rather sit in a box bolted to the floor with a CRJ'ish cockpit and pay $5,000 for a week of playing Flight Sim X with some other similarly inclined individual under the supervision of a bored out of his mind flight instructor who endues the box in the hope a real multi engine student will show up.

Wonder what one of these kids would do if instead of the particleboard procedures trainer you took them out of an hour of time in a Citabria, gave them a few spins followed by some stops at grass strips and some light acro? Much more educational than sitting there reading "3 down and green, flaps 40, landing check complete."

So true, so true, so true...