Currently 50 guys over age 60.

2012 1
2013 18
2014 31
2015 36
2016 48
2017 46
2018 43
2019 49
2020 55
2021 57
2022 57
2023 50
2024 60
2025 57
2026 52
2027 77
2028 55
2029 76
2030 51
2031 58
2032 70
2033 56
2034 67
2035 63
2036 54
2037 39
2038 22
2039 26
2040 18
2041 26
2042 14
2043 10
2044 6
2045 4
2046 2
2047 1

 

wn:

Presently (14 Jan '10) 265 guys over 60

2010 19 (guys who took the early out "Freedom 09")
'11 0
'12 0
'12 3
'13 129
'14 107
'15 140
'16 160
'17 148
'18 105
'19 133
'20 149
'21 176
'22 266
'23 188
'24 221
'25 240
'26 272
'27 278
'28 250
'29 239
'30 222
'31 216
'32 209
'33 171
'34 186
'35 169
... tired of looking up the numbers, but you get the idea


PS aside from a few military retirees, most are staying to 65 (or so they admit)

 

After two years of the age 65 "deal" we have over 500 at Usair(East) over age 60 and the numbers are climbing daily.

 

OK. I was bored and mined these numbers myself using the 2009 seniority list on Adobe. UAL currently has app. 453 pilots over age 60.

New and Improved UAL <MANDATORY> retirement list based on age 65

Dec 2012 11
2013 222
2014 220
2015 197
2016 165
2017 219 (1034)
2018 234
2019 231
2020 258
2021 319
2022 289 (2365)
2023 364
2024 337
2025 443
2026 483
2027 464 (4456)
2028 528
2029 519
2030 481
2031 496
2032 332 (6812)

 

There was an earlier post that alot of pilots would retire before they hit 65. That is an awful assumption. I would enjoy these fat old guys gone yesterday, but... The problem is pilots in general are greedy and the economy has tanked. At good ole SWA trailways many old timers said they would leave at age 61-62 years of age when the new rule kicked in, but they are still on property. Seniority rules.

 

Excluding SWA, the majors that still have some sort of pension left will have the most guys go out earlier than 65. Those that lost their pensions like Usair and UAL will likely stay till 65 imho. We'll see

 

And DAL (terminated) as well as NWA and CAL (frozen). The only one left with a pension is AMR!!

 

Pineapple guy has some ideas. Mine is more traditional, but the "haves" will always fight the "have-nots".
Of course I'm talking the age old national list idea. It got a LOT of debate back in the 80's/91 and was well represented in ALPA magazine..the pros and cons. The irony is, as I remember it, that it was usually opposed (by letters to the editor) by UAL, and Allegheny/USAir pilots. Of course TWA, PanAm, and Eastern guys were for it. It went nowhere, of course.
Teamsters head guy, as I understand it, has floated the idea, but has met the usual opposition, particularly from the legal division boys.
It would be a hard sell to airline management, but I have thought some sort of national list with the union taking over training and standardization might work. Many years ago the Merchant Marine had something like this(at least for the great lakes freighters). One was trained and qualified by the union agreements..then you shipped with "whomever". If Cleveland Cliffs screwed up, you took your years and quals to someone else, possibly without missing a beat.
If we could get over the egos and the management worries, I think we could do this. Or maybe some of Pineapple Guys ideas. What we have now is a travesty and harmful to the industry.
As an aside we lose quality pilots due to this. One of the better pilots I have flown with in my career finally said "enough" (after his most recent job loss) and is driving a truck. The airline industry is NOT better off without him. Very few were/are his level of expertise, skills and work ethic. However, due to our system of doing business, he is probably gone for good.
So it goes.

 

PG has an interesting concept.

 

based on the figures given for Delta, SWA, AMR, UAL and Alaska, %75 of the pilots at the previously mentioned carriers will be retired by 2030, pretty amazing.

in 20 years delta will lose 9500 pilots out of 12000 total