That's 20 years from now! How young do you think guys are when they're hired at a major?

In another amazing fact....in 30 years almost all of them will be retired! Wow!

 

Wow no kidding... and by 2050, everyone on this board will either be dead or retired. Just think of the hiring.

 

22 years old right out of college, 18 if you skip college

 

really those numbers just indicate how long one will have to be an fo at a regional before they can upgrade.

 

Let me preface this by saying I don't really know anything about it, but what if there was a national seniority list that could only be used by pilots who were furloughed or whose airline went under. That would prevent people from getting hired at an airline, and then just switching to another airline for better pay/QOL, and jumping people already in the company. That would offer some protection/security for all pilots, especially in their 40's and 50's and watching their company fold. Just a thought...I am not in the airlines, but would like to be some day, and I think I would like that security...obviously would still have to be interviewed/hired at another airline.

 

The national list would not prevent pilots from switching carriers and jumping ahead but allow it.

Be careful what you wish for. Let's say CAL is hiring. Why would they hire a pilot who will step on the property at the 15 year point and hold captain? They won't. They'll hire the new guy who comes in at year zero and FO pay. Only way around it is to take all hiring decisions away from mgt. That ain't happening.

 

Easy - you make it cost neutral for management, and they'll do it. How do you make it cost neutral? Well, you get the actuaries and just make it so. Does that mean everyone earns a bit less? Probably. But the upside is you have true job security, at least to a degree, and much more than at present. What's the point of rising to the top of the pile, if at the end, the pile evaporates?

Think of this (or any similar "portable seniority" system) as career insurance. Costs you a little in the short run, but in the end, if you need it, its worth every penny and then some. And if you never need it, well, you won't mind having paid a bit for that peace of mind.

 

omg, Kit where are you? it's another pilot shortage in the making. send your check to...

 

Okay...say we implement this. What do you tell the guys who start a new airline (this is a free, capitalist country--at least for now...) who take a risk and work their butts off getting the airline off the ground. After 5-10 years, the company takes off and starts doing very well. It becomes "the" place to work for QoL, pay, benefits, etc., and they are hiring like gangbusters.

Does the 15 year pilot from another carrier now jump the ENTIRE list and start bidding number 1 in the system? REALLY? Are you really suggesting that?

 

In 2012 retirements will not kick in at UPS because the 65 year old pilots already realized that the age of 65 is discrimination. They will force an age change to 70. If anyone dare stand up to them they will scream about capitalism, entitlements and seniority.

Just prior to 2017 when you think retirements will accelerate, an old crusty geezer, Larry King, who surely isn't dead yet, will point out that we don't want to lose our most qualified captains at 70, it just isn't fair, besides it's a seniority system and the "new" financial meltdown left them with no retirement, so it's bumped to 75. 70 after all is discrimination.

Just prior to 2022, our fiat money, fractional reserve system collapses completely and the world enters it's 2nd depression in 15 years. Our beloved elder Captains, at least the bottom half, fight over first officer positions that remain. They were still fully vested in the stock market, just trying to line up a few more ducks...when the SEC shut the doors. They lost everything. How can they possibly retire? Besides 75 is discrimination. The youngest pilot is now 65... the new 40.

Getting close to 2027, geezer pilots start to die off in the cockpit. Accidents rise and finally, finally the door is open for a safer form of travel. The UAV era has arrived!

Sorry for the negativity, I just got my furlough notice last week...