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Old 09-14-2010, 08:25 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by PSpence View Post
As for me, I feel I started too late. I just turned 21 (9 years to meet the goal!) with only 133 hours but flying like crazy and hoping to get a Commercial in the next few months ....
Many thanks again.
I wouldn't get so hung up on your age now. I was 19 when I took my first flying lesson and didn't get my first RJ job until I was 34. Things change rapidly in this industry and you need to be flexible. That's the most important thing I've learned after 18 years of working for airlines in one capacity or the other.

I only got a certificate or rating when I had the money saved up to pay cash for it. I didn't get my commercial until I was in my mid 20s and didn't start instructing until I was almost 30. I also worked my way through college (non-aviation) while working as a flight attendant for 12 years. I flew part time as a flight instructor, traffic watch pilot and part time charter pilot all while keeping my flight attendant job to pay the bills and stay out of debt.

I'm almost 39 now and am working for my 3rd RJ company. Still not at a Major, but that's ok because I've kept my eye on the ball and will hopefully end up there someday soon, 20 years after this adventure began. At the end of the day, I wouldn't have done any different. I have experience with different jobs at the airlines besides pilot, no pile of debt facing me and have had a blast over the last 18 years in this industry.

Good luck to you.
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Old 09-14-2010, 09:00 AM
  #32  
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Crystal ball is what you need.

Hired at US Air at 26
Hired at Delta in '99 at 27, retiring at projected #2
Hired at UPS in '06 at 34, look like genius for leaving.

4 short years later I look like a moron at 38...go figure.
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Old 09-14-2010, 09:05 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by MoonShot View Post
I wouldn't focus too much on age. You do have some great things going for you. Around the 2020 time frame, almost all of the major airlines are going to be retiring pilots like crazy. If you can just get hired in the first half of that wave (about the first five years or so) you will be set. Your first five years at the airlines would look extremely different as compared to someone that's been hired over the last decade (just bad timing for the 2000-2010 hires). As others have stated, the airline pilots have really been kicked in the teeth that last ten years. 9/11, outsourcing to RJs, bankruptcies, Age 65 etc... causing little growth and few retirements. The pilots hired at the majors between 2018-2025 are going to really going to have great progression, IMHO.

I made it at 24 (but very much on the backside of the hiring wave).

Good luck to you!
I agree. It's not about age, but about where in the hiring cycle you get picked up. Say you're hired at the end of a big cycle, with 2,000 pilots hired in an airline of 6,000. And you're the youngest person in the airline, for example 8 years less than average. Let's make the average 38, you 30.

Until the last 8 years of your career, you're going to have 2,000 guys in front of you competing for everything good. THEN they'll start getting out of the way. So, out of 35 years remaining to 65, you'll really have the run of the airline about 8 years.

The number one guy in that cycle will only be one number junior to the bottom guy in the previous cycle, even if it's been ten years between cycles. HE is going to be at 66% of the company when you're hired, and he's going to steadily progress to #1, about 8 years before you retire. Now, since he was hired at the average age of 38, he'll only have 27 years at the airline, but each one of these will be a good year.

He'll have a great career, despite starting older. You will have a decent career. You'll be better off than the old guy hired in your class, by far, and you'll enjoy a happy period near the end of your career. Right around the time you'll start worrying about wet farts, you'll finally be able to fly really, really long legs...
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Old 09-14-2010, 09:43 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by Rocket Bob View Post
Crystal ball is what you need.

Hired at US Air at 26
Hired at Delta in '99 at 27, retiring at projected #2
Hired at UPS in '06 at 34, look like genius for leaving.

4 short years later I look like a moron at 38...go figure.
Are you still flying at UPS, or did you get furloughed?
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Old 09-14-2010, 09:49 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Bill Lumberg View Post
Are you still flying at UPS, or did you get furloughed?
still at UPS, not in the furlough group fortunately. I'm one of the lucky ones that left Delta and Northwest that is not in that group...
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Old 09-14-2010, 10:31 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Sink r8 View Post
I agree. It's not about age, but about where in the hiring cycle you get picked up. Say you're hired at the end of a big cycle, with 2,000 pilots hired in an airline of 6,000. And you're the youngest person in the airline, for example 8 years less than average. Let's make the average 38, you 30.

Until the last 8 years of your career, you're going to have 2,000 guys in front of you competing for everything good. THEN they'll start getting out of the way. So, out of 35 years remaining to 65, you'll really have the run of the airline about 8 years.

The number one guy in that cycle will only be one number junior to the bottom guy in the previous cycle, even if it's been ten years between cycles. HE is going to be at 66% of the company when you're hired, and he's going to steadily progress to #1, about 8 years before you retire. Now, since he was hired at the average age of 38, he'll only have 27 years at the airline, but each one of these will be a good year.

He'll have a great career, despite starting older. You will have a decent career. You'll be better off than the old guy hired in your class, by far, and you'll enjoy a happy period near the end of your career. Right around the time you'll start worrying about wet farts, you'll finally be able to fly really, really long legs...
Obviously it's better to be hired at the begining of a hiring cycle rather than the end but you almost seem to be saying that age doesn't matter that it's the cycle that does.

What's the difference if you're 30 and are the last guy hired for 8 years or the 1st guy hired 8 years later when you're 38, during the next cycle? You're still in the same place except you have 8 years of longevity. (hopefully not furloughed either)

If you are going to compare a 38 year old and 30 year old you should make the comparison when the 30 year old reaches 38 and then compare.
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Old 09-14-2010, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Going2Baja View Post
Wow...Thanks for walk down memory lane.

To Grand Canyon @ 19
To Island Air @ 21
To SkyW @ 26
To NWA @ 32
To Alaska @ 38
Back to NWA/DAL @ 42
I guess that means Delta is about to buy Alaska.
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Old 09-14-2010, 11:39 AM
  #38  
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Here's one for you, I was hired at XJT in 2000 no long after turning 22. We had a bid, I called the union and was told I'd be upgrading to ERJ-145 Captain two months after turning 24, just a few months shy of 2 years in the company. Watched the NY Giants play Monday Night Football that night contemplating how to handle training in most likely February. I slept in the next morning and my phone kept ringing and ringing and ringing. It was the morning of September 11th, 2001. By the end of the week I was told that I'd be furloughed due to flow backs, a term I had never heard of. I was never furloughed and I eventually upgraded three years later.

Somebody once said this to me in college, and it came from his early 40s L1011 Captain dad, and I think it was the best advice I ever got: "there is always someone who did it younger, faster and better than you could ever do it - so just do a good job and enjoy it."
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Old 09-14-2010, 05:12 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
Here's one for you, I was hired at XJT in 2000 no long after turning 22. We had a bid, I called the union and was told I'd be upgrading to ERJ-145 Captain two months after turning 24, just a few months shy of 2 years in the company. Watched the NY Giants play Monday Night Football that night contemplating how to handle training in most likely February. I slept in the next morning and my phone kept ringing and ringing and ringing. It was the morning of September 11th, 2001. By the end of the week I was told that I'd be furloughed due to flow backs, a term I had never heard of. I was never furloughed and I eventually upgraded three years later.

Somebody once said this to me in college, and it came from his early 40s L1011 Captain dad, and I think it was the best advice I ever got: "there is always someone who did it younger, faster and better than you could ever do it - so just do a good job and enjoy it."

now thats a good quote
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Old 09-14-2010, 05:44 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by Eric Stratton View Post
Obviously it's better to be hired at the begining of a hiring cycle rather than the end but you almost seem to be saying that age doesn't matter that it's the cycle that does.

What's the difference if you're 30 and are the last guy hired for 8 years or the 1st guy hired 8 years later when you're 38, during the next cycle? You're still in the same place except you have 8 years of longevity. (hopefully not furloughed either)

If you are going to compare a 38 year old and 30 year old you should make the comparison when the 30 year old reaches 38 and then compare.
I actually said age was a discriminator between people in the same class. I suppose that, if hiring at some airline was constant and evenly spaced, age would be the only factor influencing career progression. But in the real world of boom and bust, there seem to be very big hiring pushes, spaced far apart. The more patches of hiring are spread out, the less important age becomes.

In the example you cite, I think you actually make my point. When the second guy gets hired, by virtue of the example you laid out, you are comparing two 38 year-olds.

The senior of the two guys is 8 years earlier in getting hired. For those eight years, all he has to show is a difference in longevity for pay and benefits. But both get to exercise roughly the same bidding power. Both get their widebody transition at the same time, both get to the left seat at the same time. Both retire at the same time. Youth gets the senior guy... nothing special.

It's hard to compare total QOL and career earnings between the two, but it's undeniable they both will fly roughly the same equipment, for all their career at the major. Now, the junior guy was probably senior at some regional for the eight-year gap between classes, which maybe wasn't that great. Then again, the senior guy was the plug at his airline, which maybe wasn't that great either.

Now, you can play different variations on the theme. I will agree that age plays a role, but it seems to me that the standard deviation in terms of age is not that much, especially when compared to the length of the career. I think the guy that gets hired early is much better off, for much longer, than the young guy that finally gets to move up for a few years after older guys retire.

I'm one of those younger guys. I got hired late in the push, but young (8 years below average), and I've been doing the math a lot. What I get to do in the last 8 years of my career is a nice consolation price for my furlough, and the relative slow movement I will see until those old ba$t@rds finally get out of my way.
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