Here's a chart showing inflation adjusted, DAL M88 hourly rates for 12-yr Captain (727 rates used prior to 1985). This chart verifies my previous statement that this career has been on a 30 year down trendline since deregulation. C2K was a single aberration above that trendline, and BK was a single aberration below that trendline. By 2012, we are back to the trendline.

We need to figure out how to reverse course, but to blame this on one person, or one entity is simple minded and not reality.

 

Good graph PG. I'll agree with you 100% that no one individual or entity can be blamed here. It took 30 years to slide to where we are at, and it will take a few years if not a decade to get the trend line headed in the right direction. I wonder what a graph that included benefits and retirement value would look like since 1978?

 

Great post PG. I also beleive that the trend line can be reversed. The industry may have finally found a way to make money post deregulation. If the margins stay in the 6-10% range the above is quite possible.

 

Nice work, PG! That is very interesting indeed. I stand (well, actually, sit) corrected on this one!

One interesting takeaway from the graph. Our C2K rates were not some extravagant aberration. They simply got us back in line with the level of compensation airline pilots enjoyed prior to deregulation. If you subscribe to the theory that a lot of the problems the airlines have had during deregulation is due to poor management (which I do), then you could also conclude that, as management improves in the industry and the airlines are more consistently profitable (like they were pre-deregulation), maybe we should be compensated more in line with that era? Just a thought... but I'd like whomever is representing me to be advocating an objective like that rather than accepting that we should continue our downward trend or only slowly reverse it. Don't forget that losses (whether you're talking investments or pilot pay) are subject to "reverse compounding" and it takes much more significant gains to overcome them. We have a very long way to go to get anything like restoration. And many of us (probably most of us) don't have THAT much time.

 

I agree with that assessment. Having said that, I also think you can look around the various industries that were heavily unionized (steel, auto, airlines) and see how old-fashioned capitalism has put tremendous long term downside pressure on their wages. While a profitable industry will make for more of an ability to pay higher wages than at present, my personal opinion, and I know it is EXTREMELY unpopular to say this, is that we can reverse the downtrend, but it is extremely unlikely we will ever see this job pay like it did prior to deregulation.

I want whomever is representing me to maximize the value of my contract. Promising the moon but delivering zero is not my view of good leadership. See APA and USAPA for exhibits A and B; both made wild promises, but have led their pilot groups to zero gains. Promising something realistic AND achieving that (or a little more) is what I want.

 

We mostly agree. The only big place I see that we disagree is on what is "realistic." I think we have sold ourselves very short over the past few years and I continue to see that mentality with just about everything coming from this MEC, the most recent Chairman's Letter being a prime example.

 

Unfortunately, I don't thinks its a question of selling ourselves short, but rather uncontrollable events that have happened and will continue to happen. Start back in 1980 with deregulation and move forward. Now the question is how do we start moving forward and recouping what we've lost.

 

Agreed-the capitalists are very, very smart. They flow to where the money is. As well, you can bet the other employees who are about to be unionized across the industry will want a bigger and bigger piece of the pie. My hope is that most remain rational. In many ways, a management team sees a strike as an opportunity to press the Code Red bankruptcy button generating numerous golden parachutes (and subsequent attorney fees).

 

What cost $275000 in 1978 would cost $894401.29 in 2009 adjusted for inflation.

What cost $175000 in 2009 would cost $53806.94 in 1978 adjusted for inflation. Just wondering what correction you used.

Deregulation brought more jobs, but it lowered the value of those jobs.

Capitalism may have it's evils, but the alternatives will put you in an even worse position. We are caught on the twin horns of pilot oversupply and rising tax rates that can easily consume up to 50% of your salary depending on your location.

Without massive change in supply or demand and rates of taxation, regaining the former glory is impossible. At best it remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.

 

oversupply, what are you talking about? I've only been hearing about a pilot shortage for the past 12 years or so?