What you have to remember about age 65 is the effects will never go away. Sure in 2 years people will start retiring. But the effect of age 65 will last forever. Based on the trends we've seen, almost everyone is working until age 65. It basically means every pilot has the ability to work an extra 5 years. That means that things will always be slower than they were before age 65. It means a good 20-25% fewer pilots will ever reach a major airline because those currently there will stay longer.

Waiting for the effects of age 65 to calm down is a bad idea. The effects of age 65 will never go away.

 

If you're looking for a major with upgrade times under 6 years you're going to have a really long search. I totally understand the money issue, but the post by Sniper is spot on. The QOL here is fantastic, and you will end up better financially after the first few years.

I am planning(financially) to NEVER upgrade at Spirit...not that I never will, but to sit around and stare at the CA payscale is just pointless, and there are so many variables that will affect the time to upgrade. That being said, as an FO here I will top 100/hr in a few years. When you compare the FO rates here to the CA rates at XJT its a no brainer to make the move.

Now, on to bases. The ACY base could literally be gone tomorrow. There are almost as many reasons for the company to get rid of it as there is to keep it. The CURRENT plan is to keep it. We are flying very productive schedules, and the hotels in ACY are really expensive. I wouldn't count on the base being around long term though...for me its the same deal as the CA upgrade, I dont expect it, then if it happens, great for me.

Good luck in whatever you decide.

 

You can never out guess the airlines go or stay where you want to be.

 

I would not come here for ACY alone. Anything other than FLL is a gamble right now.

But one more thing to look at is the outlook for your current job. What is the future of 50 seat flying with oil they way it has been. Can you take that seat you are in as granted? The regional jet is a thing of the past. Will your company be able to transform into something else like RAH is trying? I am sure all this is on your mind.

On the other hand the ULCC model that Spirit pursues is also only working up to a certain oil price. $25 move in the wrong direction and the market segment Spirit is serving shuts down. People often mention JB and other LCCs as our competition when in reality our pax are the Walmart folks. A high % of our pax are poor and they are not on a trip to Medellin for vacation. They don't choose Spirit over JB. They had no choice. They don't go to Walmart because they want to save money, but because they have no money to save. This is why the model is good and the place has potential. It is tapping into a market that has the highest population of all. It serves the lowest income classes. But for the same reason Spirit can't raise prices so the game is over above $115 per barrel if sustained for a long period.

Coming to Spirit is a gamble for many reasons. The pay off could be a quick (4-5y) left seat in a growing company. May be even the next best thing. The other side has acquisition, merger, integration, staple, and furlough written all over it.

The pay is actually not bad. The scale on apc does not show the stepping but your 2nd year would be $66 if you get hired now. QOL is outstanding especially in ACY. Highest days off and if you are close there is always extra flying for you. The only thing is ACY is always in limbo and it is already senior. I am not even sure you could hold it out of class anymore.

Good luck with your choice.

 

With the upcoming payraises a 2nd year FO at Delta can pull down six figures. No way is it going to take 7 years to break even, maybe a few and it's all gravy after that. What does a 10 year XJT Captain make?

 

Well put. I've been watching energy very closely with oil price being a big concern, I cannot fathom the impact that July '08 prices would have on our industry.

 

Try not to laugh.......$79.35

$84.35 pre concession

 

Thanks for the number hash. Am i the only one that found this depressing???

 

I admit, I did not take the extra time to comb through Delta's contract for pay bumps, only Spirit's (this is a Spirit thread), but here's what I came up with using APC's #'s, which must surely give us a 'ballpark' estimate.

10 year XJT CA vs. new hire Delta FO = Delta earnings disparity:

1. 72,000 vs. 45,360 = -26,640
2. 73,800 vs. 65,520 = -8280 + -26,640 = -34,920
3. 76,500 vs. 76,776 = 276 + -34,920 = -34,644
4. 78,300 vs. 78,456 = 156 + -34,644 = -34,488
5. 81,000 vs. 80,640 = -360 + -34,488 = -34,848
6. 81,900 vs. 101,850 = 19,950 + -34,848 = -14,898
7. 83,700 vs. 104,790 = 21,090 + -14,898 = 6,192

I assumed our Delta FO would get paid the average NB FO rate (DC-9, MD-88, MD-90, A319/320, 737NG) for the first 5 years, then the average widebody rate (757/767, 767-400/A330, 787, 777/747-400) for the next 6 years, and would only make Reserve guarantee of 70 hours.

As you can see, starting in Year 3, the Delta FO brings in about the same as the XJT CA (that year, the Delta FO is on a $91.40/hr rate, while the XJT CA is on an $85/hr rate, but XJT has a 5 hour greater guarantee). The jump to WB pay bridges the gap in less than 2 years.

This is a typical result. You take a hit the first year, then you make about the same (junior NB FO = senior RJ CA) until you are able to hit a pay bump. @ NB only operators it is your upgrade to CA. @ WB operators, it is your move to the WB right seat. The longer the upgrade to CA, the longer the wait to get to both the right seat of the WB and the left seat (hence why United takes so long right now, 15 years in the right seat and a bankruptcy wage scale).

 

Nice numbers guys, and thanks for taking the time to figure them. Well im a 14 year captain flying about 92hrs on average out of EWR I don't commute and I bid well let's say in the top twenty. Pretty nice schedule and about half the year off and bring home just a little over 105000. However, with us just being bought by ASA and no joint contract in hand and CAL/UAL merger still going on it an understatement to say that im not just a little concerned. I don't think I would ever be displaced from EWR because they can't get anyone to stay here...living in Jersey is expensive to say the least and being middle aged with two young kids its not a money thing its a responsibility thing. Just exploring some options.

Not a left seat hog if that was the case I would have left for CAL five years ago when I could have flowed over, just was the wrong time to much going on I life...well I would have been sent to the street anyway...would have been recalled by now but still non the less...no job!