TheManager

Same. Put your Parker hat on for a minute. He is looking for an exit plan. Why else wopuld he be asking the judge for a declaratory judgement.

He wants to either:

1. Cash out. Most likely way to do that is piece by piece. That might actually be more lucrative and easier with labor woes than selling out as a whole.

2. Gain mass via merger and run the show afterward. More ca$h after he accomplishes this.

The judgement will play a big role. My guess is the judge tosses that steaming stinking request right back in his lap and does not rule on it. She won't let him hide behind her skirt.

acl65pilot

That makes a lot of sense. It would be a big gamble with SEA and PDX though.

Bucking Bar

ACL's exactly correct.

Alaska has a rare characteristic in this business, customer loyalty.

There is no way we could stick the Delta brand (diluted as it is) on America West and compete head to head with Alaska. That might look good on paper, but our results would be only marginally better than US Air's (with much higher costs).

Flyby1206

How would a PHX hub replace what Alaska does in SEA/PDX/LAX? Seems a bit of a stretch. If the crap hit the fan and Alaska walked away from DAL codesharing I think DAL could survive out of their existing SLC/SEA/LAX hubs. Granted, they would still lose a ton of loyal customers from Alaska and there would be no way to replace that.

Tab Flyer

Alaska is a large commuter airline, everyone of their managers is ex Horizon. Years ago I did flying for them as an Era pilot.

Probably the main reasons customers are so loyal is the fact that they own the ANC SEA market and the AS Alaskan Permanent Fund Check discount program (the state check Alaskans receive from oil royalties). AS gives residents several tickets in exchange for their check.

If SWA or other carriers seriously competed in the ANC market this perceived customer loyalty would dissipate. I do agree if we were to buy AS it would be a loser for us , HP would be worse yet.

Delta actually does not need to buy anyone on the west coast. Just purchase the Saudia MD90s, establish an LAX category and running those twenty-five or so hulls up and down the west coast using existing gates and personnel. Use a rational schedule between city pairs to join our customers with Delta flights. Also supplement the MD90s with other fleet types here and there. the cost at $10 mil/frame, $250 mil total.

Let AA or SWA deal with the merger issues and costs.

TheManager

PHX would not do a thing for DAL. A fleet of Airbii would as well as the handful of gates at various west coast cities.

Thing is, look at the route map in the back of the Sky Magazine. If Alaska ends up in the arms of AMR or anone other than Delta.....then there goes all of that feed into SEA PDX and LAX.

That would present a significant problem for the folks in ATL.

TheManager

Interesting about the Permanent Fund check.

TheManager

I would much rather see growth like that as it = seat progression and jobs. However, They would have to act quickly to plug a hole the size of Alaska leaving the network. Could that be accomplished quick enough? Would other options as buying a chunk from Parker, doing a deal with Branson, etc. be quicker? Who knows.

Point is....strategically they are exposed. I understand there is a complex poison pill involved though but I never have heard the details.

Tab Flyer

I also don't know the details concerning the poison pill, though I did hear that post 911 it was made less lethal. Also I do not know for how long AS and their acquirer would have to honor the code share agreement with Delta.
But we could start purchasing those airframes now and start a small LAX category.

I did a one year gig flying for Sierra Pacific Airlines on an AMR contract flying the Air Cal routes. There are small carriers that can do the flying on a short term contract while Delta gets the new category up and running.

Losing AS does not leave us screwed or without options. AS is probably great for the company as a code share but not as an acquisition. If Delta were to lose AS to AA or SWA, long term it would be good for us (more seats) and good for the company (hobble the competition with costs and employee problems).

Cactusone

LOL customer loyality, really? Alaska provides better product at a good price because it can subsidize it off of high yeilds/subsidies it receives from its AK routes. It can match most of all the SWA, DAL etc fare wars between SEA and LAX ect and give the amenities/schedule because of ops elsewhere is its system. The pax just receives this benefit without directly paying for it, if they were not matching fares aggressively they would lose a lot of there pax to $7 cheaper tickets on SWA, US etc without the free stuff and the mystical customer loyalty would slowly melt away over $7. For the record I am a ALA supporter and hope to see them prosper.