Recalls
 

Recalls of any amount offer hope to an industry that has been kicked in the crotch, teeth, and pile-drived onto a concrete floor. As one 777 captain retiring triggers about 12 training events, ten recalls per month sends a disproportionate signal to the industry. :) It is, however, good news.

J

Yeah, realize that if AA has acquiesced and agreed to recall 10/mo they proably really need 30/mo and will have to increase at some point.

I guess that's pretty conclusive then. You don't know jack about recall chances at AA.

Then educate us almighty one...and what's with the attitude? Are you just ****ed because I support keeping age 60? Answer the question, or should I ask an actual "active" AA pilot? How many retire in the next 10 years?

Shackone, what do you see driving AMR's recall rate?
1) Retirements
2) Increased block hours
3) Contractual changes where pilots on property become more productive (ie QOL decreases to get a few more hrs/mo out of every pilot on property)
4) A change to age 65 for part 121 pilots

The first two will generate recalls; the last two delay recalls.
Since #2, 3 & 4 have not occured, I'm looking at #1. AMR probably has ~30 pilots/mo retiring. 10/mo doesn't keep up with attrition; this tells me that AMR is planning on #3 and/or 4 happening. If #4 doesn't happen (right now I see it as a crapshoot; could go either way), I'd be willing to bet that management is going to push for #3.
Should the pilots on property opt to take a pass on #3, recalls will accelerate (assuming block hours remain constant).
United forecasted a recall of 200+ pilots in 2006; it looks like we'll close out the year a bit short of 400 recalls. We burned through >800 numbers through November; I wouldn't be surprised if we burn through 1000 numbers to close out 2006.
At 10/mo, AMR's current forecast is for 120/yr. In order to generate that number of recalls, don't be surprised to see AMR burn through 400+ numbers. But I expect AMR to recall closer to 300 (to keep up with retirements) in 2007 and go through 1/4-1/3 of the furlough list. The deeper that AMR gets into the furlough list, the less furloughees will return. I expect AMR to recall the most junior furloughee (as long as status quo is maintained) no later than mid-2009.

The problem with any predictions is that there are a LOT of moving parts. And of course, hindsight is 20/10. So consider my ramblings above to merely be a WAG. What's your WAG on AMR's recalls?

I bet they don't recall more than that. AA has a very young pilot seniority list, and attrition isn't high. As far as understaffed, a few productivity changes and high efficiency lines will correct that. As far as I'm concerned, it's just a trickle in a vast ocean of furloughees----most definately the highest in aviation history.

And, they could always ground more mainline jets and add 90-100 seat flying at AMR Eagle.

I'm not an AA pilot (but I did sleep in an really nice hotel...). The word I heard from other guys is that AA is trying to hold back growth in order not to have to recall any TWA flight attendents. If they don't recall any TWA attendants by Sept 07 then they can just cut them loose. If they recall even 1 TWA flight attendant before that, they become liable for health care and retirement for the whole lot.

They have something like 150 AA FA's on furlough that get recalled before the TWA list.

Not speaking with any kind of special knowledge other than what I overheard at the bar.

As far as the pilots being recalled, I would think that of the 2900 or so furloughed, probably less than half will actually answer the recall.

I heard from a US FA they had to call four to get one to come back. Not sure about the pilots but I bet its 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 that they get back.

Great news they are calling anyone. I agree with "1seat" what is most likely happening with the TWA FA's. Sux but thats what they are up too.

They got the age 60 rule in when it was good for them, I don't see them fighting to pay the most senior pilots the highest wages for the next 5 years.

But really what do I know. And ease up on the "Shackster" he is the guru here, isn't he?

they become liable for health care and retirement for the whole lot.





Measure it with a micrometer, mark it with chalk, and cut it with a chain saw ... seems the AMR bean counters haven't changed.

J

As you might imagine, this recall is topic #1 with all of us AA'ers...active and retired.

The 'official word' is that 10/month will offset attrition only. How much faith do we have in that? Only the amount of faith that we have in anything coming from corporate operations. You probably can guess how much that is.

Given the number of folks on the street, even with the most sanguine estimates here, it will take 5 years or more to get everyone back who wants to come back. Five years in this industry is a long, long, time...as we all know, anything may happen in such a time frame.

Don't be too sure about the number of folks who will turn down the recall if you are using past experiences at other carriers. Being recalled to AA is not like being recalled to a less prosperous carrier or a carrier with less potential for the future.

Right now, the attitude with our folks is one of cautious optimism. Many did not expect a recall announcement until the present union negotiations had reached some agreement...and the summer season is over and with it the greater need for pilots. Once again, this only proves the old maxim that we'll never know what's going to happen until it does.

Bottom line...some recalls are much better than none at all. But it's going to be a long haul to get everyone back who wants to come back.