cards5

Yep. Enjoy that raise as we fly more with less. Self funded career stagnation.

sevenfiveseven

Fall of next year 2013........

forgot to bid

To add insult to injury, his numbers don't use the 8 757s now leaving and, sorry buddy, he used pink to represent the A319/320 in the pie chart.

Now, looking at those numbers provided, a little side banter.

So let's take a random 22 year old dude (I'll use a picture from buzzpats favorite boy band to illustrate) and say he wants to become a pilot.



So he goes over to ALL ATP and drops $60K on their Private-MEII 5 month fast track program. Spends a year or year and half instructing. So it's fall of 2015 when he gets hired at a regional. Spends 3 years there and applies to Delta. It's 2018. Gets hired.

At the attrition rate and say no growth or shrinkage from here, he'd hold NYCM88A in 5 years. At that point he's 32 year old 88 Captain making it rain in the nightclubs in Kew Gardens on his $165K/year salary (if we haven't gotten a new contract and we didn't give away any more large RJ flying thereby keeping him at said regional longer).

So he'd be about 30% back from guys hired 17 years ahead of him, he'd be about 15% back from our current plug who was hired eight years before.

Sounds fanciful, but speaking of Buzzpat, I know of someone hired 6 years after him who is only 200 numbers back from him and hadn't even started instructing when Buzz was being furloughed from DAL. And this dude got no special favors. He got an engineering degree, paid his own training, instructed, got furloughed from his first airline, flew his tail off, became Captain and applied.

So it can happen and will.

BTW, if we don't have new hires til 2014 then we'd hired a little less than 1400 pilots over a 13 year period.

Now is a good time to start flying.

Bluto

Talk to the 6+ year FO's at most regionals and thy may have a slightly different picture for you. Other than that, though, it could happen.

MrBojangles

That's what angered me the most about the contract. So many people here will do anything for some chump change!

forgot to bid

oh trust me I know, but if movement happens on the 747 here the lowly plug may feel it. if movement picks up at mainline carriers it will hit the regionals... unless there is scope concessions in the years to come.

i was hired at coex in 2000 and sat in class in 2008 with guys hired at coex in 04. in 2005 it looked like you were doomed to your current lot in life forever, in february 2007 delta had new hire classes.

being an optimist i hope that happens, being a realist, i know there will be pressure to make concessions on the very things that create movement solely because they create movement.

and i hope we do the right thing(s) for our own movement which should translate to the regionals.

Columbia

Yep- same thing will happen if we keep believing in the "hope" the current president espouses.

MatthewAMEL

Isn't DAL taking 22 of ATN's 717's in 2013? Then 32 in 2014 and 32 in 2015.

That's not more than the slots being lost through A/C retirements, pilot retirements and FAA work rule changes?

80ktsClamp

DL can't get around not hiring next year, but it looks like we've got about 8-10 more months of stagnation. Mainline is projected to grow from around 715 to 796 airplanes between now and 2015. Factor in retirements on top of that and things are going to really get moving.

I would expect to see another narrowbody aircraft order here in fairly short order.

Brocc15

That's a rumor I just heard