KNOT on CALL

I've been thinking about this for a while now. I've got about 30-35 years to retirement and I'm trying to forecast the unforecastable, I know... However, I'm trying to look BACK 30 years to help me see what 30 years from now COULD look like in the payscale dept.

I don't want this thread to turn into a doom-and-gloom, nor a "pilotless-cockpit-by-then" kind of thread. Lets blissfully assume for a moment there will be 2 pilots in every cockpit for the next 50 years.

I do want help, however, in finding accurate documentation of actual pay rates of various major airlines pilot pay scals for the early to mid 1980s to compare to today. I am not looking for equivilant/adjusted-for-inflation numbers, just raw pay rates and min guarantee credit hour information. I can factor in my own inflation calculations on my own.

So if anyone out there has any info on this I'd appreciate the help!

(United, Delta, American, TWA, N.W., ...the big guys, past or present...)

Cheers
KonC

Flyby1206

Just like trying to predict the stock market future gains by looking at its past performance, the airline industry of the past 30 years is not an indicator of the next 30 years.

Looking at our country and the recent financial success of airlines I think the rest of the world will follow suit. There will be a reduction of small/struggling carriers, and mid-large carriers will merge to become more stable. This will truly become a global industry with cross-border, and cross-continent mergers. What does that mean for pay? Your guess is as good as anyone else's.

KNOT on CALL

I do fear cabotage as well. Probably the largest threat to US Carriers, much larger than that of Scope which seems to be worrying most pilots under the age of 50.

The way it seems to break down when I look at it

if you're in your late 50's or older: worried about your pension (if you have one)

50's: worried about a merger

30's & 40's: worried about Scope

20's: worried about cabotage...

Teens: excited to get your pilots license so you can start making $250k/yr right away!

OKLATEX

Three things I've learned in my airline career.

5 Years is Forever for an Airline, Upgrade times are nothing but past history and you will Upgrade to Captain somewhere between Year 1 and Year 30-35 in your case.

I can honestly say I've really enjoyed my career, but in no way has it gone in the direction I assumed it would and it seems to be continuously evolving. I think assumptions that far in advance are impossible.

Best advice I've gotten regarding finances are to stay married to your first wife and live within your means in your Second Officer/First Officer House.

Sink r8

I can't imagine a crystal ball with that sort of range.

The potential disruptors are so many, that it seems impossible to make a forecast. To name a few items that could completely change the industry and our job:
1) technology
2) legislation
3) foreign competition
4) geopolitics
5) energy
6) domestic economy
7) world economy
8) pandemics, real and imagined
9) climate issues, real and imagined
10)food
11)water

etc.

Most people that can figure out where one of these variables is going in 10 years are probably rich already.

I predict we'll be in a drastic global cooling cycle, requiring immediate action.

rickair7777

Cabotage is no threat until all the foreign countries with large and growing demands for airline capacity solve their own internal pilot shortages, and then grow a big enough surplus pool to start taking over our flying. It's not even a sure thing they'd work cheaper than we do...as their economies grow, they'll expect a better standard of living and the pay to make it happen.

Conveniently there are big stumbling blocks to growth in overseas pilot training. In the socialist nanny-states of Europe, general aviation is frowned on except as a ludicrously priced pastime for the hereditary nobility. In more totalitarian regimes, general aviation is viewed with outright suspicion and considered a threat to state/party security...way too much freedom involved in buzzing around the skies unchecked.

badflaps

In 1984, I was knocking it out of the park with $125,000 gross.( DAL B727A) over 12.

galaxy flyer

Well, badflaps, that's about 260,000 per year in 2012 dollars, so pay basically matched inflation for NB pilots, minus the A plan, minus the worse health care, minus a few other givebacks. So, there you have my best guess over the next thirty years. I thought I was a rich corporate pilot making 23,500 in 1983; it's about a third of my current salary in 2012 dollars.

The '60s B707 PAA and TW guys bragged about a "Cadillac a month"; those pay rates will never return. It'll be a comfortable middle class income.

GF

Timbo

I was a new hire at Delta in 1985. Our first year pay was a flat rate of $1,800/month regardless of how much you flew, which works out to $21,600/yr. before taxes. Everyone went to the 727 Engineer seat to begin. After a couple years depending on which base you were in, you might get to the back seat of the DC8 or L10-11, or right seat of the DC9.

The cap was 75 hours a month, which meant flying 4 three day trips, or 3 four day trips, i.e. 12 days flying per month.

Second year pay on the 727 engineer seat, on the B scale, was about $28/hr. After three years on the panel, (1988) I got to the right seat of the 727, which I think paid about $48/hr. again, B scale wages. At 75 hrs./month, that is $43,200/yr.

galaxy flyer

At EA, 1985, I was on the A scale, last line to not have a B, I think, probie pay was $1200 a month. DL guys were in high cotton; they looked sharper, drove better cars and had the best girls. Second year was about $35,000, IIRC, in the back seat of the Boeing. -9 pay was about 5,000 more, if you could hold it. Captains, after the Lorenzo contract, were making about $100,000.

Cap was 80 hours, then went to 84 under the Borman/Lorenzo contract. The old guys boasted they got a pay increase.

GF