I think its more likely the LCC's consolidate with each other. Many people think a Frontier and Spirit marriage is inevitable. JetBlue and Southwest has been floated before.

Others like Allegiant etc.. will simply just go out of business as I don't see their business model fitting in with anyone else. Allegiant would have to do the acquiring though if they were to merge.

 

It's inevitable. LCC future is in as much doubt as the regional airlines.

 

Why is it inevitable?

 

No way. I'm sorry but I don't believe that for a second. For a myriad of reasons. The way regionals are compensated (FFD) etc vs LCC etc..... The list is long

Just my opinion. Besides, it was the legacies in the past who needed a government bailout, not SWA, Spirit, JetBlue etc.

The model works it's just would they rather pay pilots or simply shut the doors, lol.

 

I doubt any legacy scope clause would allow that.

 

That's completely incorrect. If you think that LCCs haven't gotten govt assistance monetarily, through asset seizures (forced divestitures) and redistribution, sweetheart deals on airport usage/fees, etc, you do not understand anything about the business.

Example: How many airlines were allowed to bid for the 2 gates at Dallas Love that American was forced to divest? Exactly one. Virgin America.
Just one of many, many examples.

As far as post-911 government bailouts, do you know how much United, one of the two airlines that lost aircraft on 911, received in government bailouts?

 

Explain why you think the LCC's are in as much doubt as the regionals?

 

Myth that is falsely propagated. Only lcc airlines received govt "loans" , you said bailout, post 9-11. UAL was actually rejected and DAL and AA never applied.

Only airline I remember specifically was lcc awa at the time but as I remember all the loans were repaid with interest so the govt actually made money off that deal.

You hear this urban myth all the time though so I don't fault the youngsters for repeating it.

It wouldn't surprise me if the lcc Mgmt itself likes to propagate the idea that proper pay for pilots lead the legacies to their demise and not ill conceived Mgmt desire to capture/ maintain market share. It serves their narrative that "we're lccs and we don't pay employees what the legacies pay despite you do the same exact job, with less support in many cases, than other legacy pilots.

Your Mgmt likes you to believe that legacy pay will lead to the demise of lccs and not poor mgmt decisions.

 

Look at new student/private/commercial/ATP certificates issued over the last decade. The pipeline of new pilots looks bleak right now which means airlines are going to try to hire as many qualified pilots as they can get their hands on.

The hiring at legacies over the last four years has turned the regionals from well staffed to train wrecks. And the hiring at legacies during that time is only enough to meet retirements plus minor growth. Legacy retirements alone require ~2000 new hires per year.

Let's not forget that all airlines - legacies, LCCs, and regionals are fishing from the same pond of pilot candidates. The legacies are able to offer better 'bait' (pay, QOL) than LCCs and regionals. This has already started killing the regionals. I expect the same to happen to LCCs, as I don't think that they can compete against the legacies for a smaller pilot pool.

We'll either see a huge surge in new pilot certificates which will meet demand for pilots or the LCCs will start having problems recruiting and retaining pilots within the next few years.

 

My management has nothing to do with what I think I should be paid. What they think and what I think is completely different.

I apologize. I spoke incorrectly. I said bailout, I don't know why I said that, I meant Bankrputcy.......

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