The amount of retirements surpasses the amount of regional pilots available to fill those seats.

 

Yep. The mathematics of the problem do not stop at the regional airlines door step.

 

This is why the LCCs won't see the same depletion as regionals will. The flowthrough programs will suck up so many guys so quickly, and the focus will be mil/Corp guys for off the street hiring as a balance.

The end game will be a return of all flying done in house, or at least by wholly owned subsidiaries, and creating a defined career path for the regionals.

 

Thank you!

 

Jetblue has enough qualified apps each application window to replace our entire seniority list.

Not saying we couldn't be affected by a pilot shortage. I just don't find it very likely.

 

6 years from today the major airlines will retire 18,000 pilots. That's more than currently work at the regionals.

 

No problems.... Like another poster pointed out, its the DIP financing and broad discretion allowed a BK judge that makes BK a modern day restructuring tool.

Those BK's were not caused by pilot salaries, but since bringing the companies to BK court (to account for a multitude of strategical errors by mgmt over the previous decade), they go after labor as well because it's mgmts only time to get what they want inserted into a contract.

Do you think a legacy would have allowed PBS without BK court threat? 50% pay cuts? Etc, etc.

BK court is why you still get a decent rate on corporate bonds, because they're only as good as the corp mgmt to make good strategic business decisions.

Vegas, you have all the wickets in place. Plan a small vacation, that will garner you a call from a major, when you least expect or want it.

I can hardly wait till next Xmas when your newly trained behind will be stuck on reserve in NYC and you couldn't drop due to coverage!

 

Going after labor is not in the company's best interests in this case. The court will be made to see that. It doesn't make sense to exasperate a problem that was recently just mitigated by a new contract.

 

You're focusing on the fact that Legacies (withstanding) are, at this moment, the most desirable destination due to pay, QOL, etc. Everything is relative to timing; so would you have turned down a job at Southwest in the late 90s (or even post 9/11) in favor of a Legacy job? Not unless you wanted to spend nearly a decade furloughed. How will your legacy perform under the next economic downturn or $100+ per barrel oil prices? If your Legacy airline starts to lose money, you're one of the first to get the boot.

The ULCCs create revenue under wider profit margins than the Legacies. Will the pay come up for ULCCs as the competition for qualified pilots increases, the simple answer is "yes" because they can budget for higher pay. Otherwise explain to me how LCC Southwest pilots were once the bottom-feeders in pay, and over time their pay was increased steadily to put them on top for narrowbody pay? And somehow even with those top-of-the-heap pay rates Southwest has maintained its reputation on Wall Street for reliable profitablity!

It starts with a successful business plan. As a small and successful business either you're bought up by the bigger competition or you manage to remain independent and grow.

In the case of ULCCs, if the business does well, eventually the pilots do well. If a ULCC is bought, it is to be merged, not liquidated (it would be foolish to suggest otherwise). There is a lot of precedant to prevent pilots of a successful airline from being stapled to the bottom of a list.

So the question really is, do you see the ULCC business plan as sustainable or unsustainable?

... Legacies, LCCs, ULCCs, they all have risks!

 

SWA pay was never brought up, it's just everyone else's was brought down so it appeared as though they were "highly compensated"...........

At least that's how I understood it