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Old 05-29-2008, 09:05 AM   #461  
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NWABusDriver and Keenster,

Retirements are fixed, but they don't mean anything if a pilot retires and his job is gone after he retires. In order for you to move up, there has to be a job to move up to. Delta has added 700 jobs including 350 wide body Captain jobs in the last year. That is the same as Northwest having a static fleet and having 700 pilots retire. Unfortunately, Northwest does not have a static fleet. They are losing 52 airplanes this year.

If you are going to look forward and count retirements, then you are going to look forward and count growth according to each airline's business plans. You can't just cherry pick one item that favors you and assume away all others. Again, retirements only matter if your fleet doesn't shrink more than the retirements. Right now your fleet is shrinking more than your retirements. Most Northwest pilots say "I will make the Whale in 20XX" depending on their seniority. How do you know the Whales will be around in 10 years or more? Where did all the DC-10's go? To make a forward looking view based on retirements requires you to make the same forward looking predictions on fleets as a growth plan does. Your forward looking assumptions are just as wrong as my forward looking assumptions, this industry changes rapidly.

You can either snapshot where we are right now, or you can look forward using ALL forward looking factors. If you think any arbitrator will allow you to cherry pick your individual arguments then you are mistaken.

In the Nicolau award (US Air/Am West), the arbitrator said that all that forward looking crap for both sides was just that, crap. He took a snapshot and integrated the lists based on that snapshot.

You are correct that after a merger Delta's superior contract will become community property and be shared. After a merger, Delta's superior growth plan will become community property and be shared. Northwest's slight edge in retirements (of active pilots, not long term sick) in the short term (about 350 more at 10 years) and Delta's slight edge in the long term (about 350 more at 15 years) will also become community property and be shared. If you want to keep "your" retirements then you have to keep "your" contract and "your" fleet plan. No cherry picking allowed.

I think the Northwest pilots should get used to the idea of a snapshot integration using some ratio method. That is what was used in the Airways arbitration and that will most likely be a guiding factor if we are forced to arbitration. While it will affect your advancement due to retirements, it will give you huge benefits in contract items and in potential fleet growth. I know that seniority can't be bought, but your view on what your retirements mean to you will necessarily be translated into economic terms. Any outside arbitrator will see that the contractual and fleet growth economic gains will outweigh your retirement issues. Whatever personal value you place on being a "Whale Captain" will not factor into the decision.
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Old 05-29-2008, 12:15 PM   #462  
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Well stated. It is a tough situation that we are all in. Lets hope for lots of growth to make the pain a little more bearable.
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Old 05-29-2008, 12:40 PM   #463  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newKnow View Post
Out of Nagoya, Osaka, and Narita the 757 (180 seats) flies to:
1. Busan, S. Korea
2. Guam
3. Saipan
4. Guangzhou, China
5. Taipai, Taiwan (I think)

As I remember, the flights were always full.

Everywhere else the flights are 330's and bigger.

Wait. I forgot. The -400 goes down to Guam. I think the 330 also goes to Saipan. Basically, to the Japanese, Guam and Saipan are like Hawaii is to Americans. We have multiple flights down to those Islands FULL of Japan mainland passengers as well as those who connect through Japan from elsewhere (like S. Korea).

NWA and UAL have something in Japan that is hard to explain until you see it. They are like national airlines over there which the Japanese use heavily to go to places other than the United States. When you go over there and look at the ramp, you would swear you are in DTW or ORD.

New K Now
Yeah, I'm a 757 guy over there most months. We are starting up Taipai sometime this summer out of Narita. We did it out of Osaka for a time during SARS but when the loads came back it went back to a -400, but now I think it's a bus also. I think the only "south" flying the -400 does anymore is Manila out of Narita and Nagoa.....don't know about Osaka. Everything else, including GUM and Saipan are big busses. Guam and Saipan are turns on the buss, more beer for me

We are the SWA of the orient!

Ferd
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Old 05-29-2008, 12:47 PM   #464  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd149 View Post
Yeah, I'm a 757 guy over there most months. We are starting up Taipai sometime this summer out of Narita. We did it out of Osaka for a time during SARS but when the loads came back it went back to a -400, but now I think it's a bus also. I think the only "south" flying the -400 does anymore is Manila out of Narita and Nagoa.....don't know about Osaka. Everything else, including GUM and Saipan are big busses. Guam and Saipan are turns on the buss, more beer for me

We are the SWA of the orient!

Ferd
4 words for ya.
Saipan - Sunday - Champagne - Brunch


6 more
All - You - Can - Eat - And - Drink


5 more
Why - Am - I - In - Cleveland?
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Old 05-29-2008, 02:48 PM   #465  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
NWABusDriver and Keenster, Northwest does not have a static fleet. They are losing 52 airplanes this year.
Please post your source on 52 airplanes. The number I've heard at management meetings is 18.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
If you are going to look forward and count retirements, then you are going to look forward and count growth according to each airline's business plans.
Not only can you do that, an arbitrator WILL do that. No arbitration that I've ever seen paid attention to some "business plan" at all. Retirements are real and quantifiable, business plans are nonsense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
In the Nicolau award (US Air/Am West), the arbitrator said that all that forward looking crap for both sides was just that, crap. He took a snapshot and integrated the lists based on that snapshot.
That is correct

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
Where did all the DC-10's go?
They were replaced by nearly double the number of A-330's.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
After a merger, Delta's superior growth plan will become community property and be shared.
Growth plan... I truly hope you're not really that naive.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
I think the Northwest pilots should get used to the idea of a snapshot integration using some ratio method. That is what was used in the Airways arbitration and that will most likely be a guiding factor if we are forced to arbitration.
The last arbitration has no bearing whatsoever on what an arbitrator will do. Most mergers have been done by Date of Hire. NWA history is Date of Hire. Delta's history is mostly non-arbitrated ratios. This one could easily go either way. Given we are of similar size and similar fleets, history shows the most likely award will be date of hire with seat and base protections. That's not my opinion, that's history.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
Any outside arbitrator will see that the contractual and fleet growth economic gains will outweigh your retirement issues.
Utter nonsense. You have no clue what ANY outside arbitrator will do. Nobody knows that.

Carl
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Old 05-29-2008, 02:53 PM   #466  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd149 View Post
Yeah, I'm a 757 guy over there most months. We are starting up Taipai sometime this summer out of Narita. We did it out of Osaka for a time during SARS but when the loads came back it went back to a -400, but now I think it's a bus also. I think the only "south" flying the -400 does anymore is Manila out of Narita and Nagoa.....don't know about Osaka. Everything else, including GUM and Saipan are big busses. Guam and Saipan are turns on the buss, more beer for me

We are the SWA of the orient!

Ferd
Cool... since we are the SWA across the North Atlantic, we will be bringing the world to WalMart..
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Old 05-29-2008, 02:58 PM   #467  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newKnow View Post
Out of Nagoya, Osaka, and Narita the 757 (180 seats) flies to:
1. Busan, S. Korea
2. Guam
3. Saipan
4. Guangzhou, China
5. Taipai, Taiwan (I think)

As I remember, the flights were always full.

Everywhere else the flights are 330's and bigger.

Wait. I forgot. The -400 goes down to Guam. I think the 330 also goes to Saipan. Basically, to the Japanese, Guam and Saipan are like Hawaii is to Americans. We have multiple flights down to those Islands FULL of Japan mainland passengers as well as those who connect through Japan from elsewhere (like S. Korea).

NWA and UAL have something in Japan that is hard to explain until you see it. They are like national airlines over there which the Japanese use heavily to go to places other than the United States. When you go over there and look at the ramp, you would swear you are in DTW or ORD.

New K Now
Thanks for the info New K... so I would assume then the bus drivers and real airplane (757) guys deadhead over for long rotations... Sounds like a pretty good deal.

When I was stationdito in the P.I. I remember seeing all the Japanese going to Guam to have the "American" experience... what a trip that was. A friend that was stationed on Guam said they would come over and pay big bucks to dress up like cowboys and ride on the back of a horse that she lead... just priceless...

I'm looking forward to seeing the operation someday.
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Old 05-29-2008, 03:04 PM   #468  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Spackler View Post
Please post your source on 52 airplanes. The number I've heard at management meetings is 18.Carl
I KNEW it... CARL IS A MANAGEMENT TOOL!!!!!!!

Just kidding Carl.

Steve
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Old 05-29-2008, 05:06 PM   #469  
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Carl,

Here are the numbers I have gleaned from your company's public releases:

32 DC-9
3 747-200F
10 more DC-9
4 A-320
3 757

That equals 52 in my book. I think you are only looking at the planes announced a month ago. Don't forget the other announcements earlier in the year.

As for the DC-10's, you had 36 in 1998, do you really have 72 A-330's? You also had 35 747's and 8 Freighters. Fleets change with time, that was only 10 years ago, what will your fleet look like 10 years from now? Neither you nor I have any clue on that and neither will an arbitrator.

You state that an arbitrator will definitely look at retirements yet Nicolau ignored all of the East's pilots claims about attrition and career expectations. How do you explain that? Just to be clear he also ignored the West's pilots claims that the East was days away from liquidation so they had no careers left.

Again, retirements only mean something if you make some prediction about future fleet size, even if you predict a static fleet. How does your prediction of a static fleet differ from a prediction of fleet growth? Both are future predictions which will change with time. Given the recent history, growth at Delta is easier to prove than a static fleet at Northwest. I believe that arbitrators will avoid these future looks because they are just a guess. Somehow you think your guess at the future is more relevant than a company's business plan that has been designed by management and approved by the Board of Directors. You must be a good guesser.

Your retirements hit a few years earlier than Delta's, but then Delta has much more retirements. You would have to convince an arbitrator that the short time when you have more is the only relevant time, please provide that explanation.

Date of hire used to be written into ALPA Merger Policy and it was removed. The US Air arbitration was the first big merger since the policy was changed. You are kidding yourself if you think it will not be viewed as precedent in any future arbitrations. Date of hire was specifically removed, the world changed since the Roberts award.

I believe that Northwest just had 70 displacements. Delta just bid out 70 new positions for the 777 (35 each seat). Does that trend mean anything to you? The 737-700's show up next month. The next 777 delivery is in December.

You guys must be betting a lot on the Date of Hire concept, the one that was specifically removed from ALPA policy. Each month the ratios get worse and worse for your side.
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Old 05-29-2008, 05:19 PM   #470  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
Carl,

Here are the numbers I have gleaned from your company's public releases:

32 DC-9
3 747-200F
10 more DC-9
4 A-320
3 757

It should be said that along with thus announcement it was published that these aircraft were NOT being retired they were being parked until the market turns around. The rumor with the A320s and 757s are they are being parked because of the leases which might be renegotiated

That equals 52 in my book. I think you are only looking at the planes announced a month ago. Don't forget the other announcements earlier in the year.

As for the DC-10's, you had 36 in 1998, do you really have 72 A-330's? You also had 35 747's and 8 Freighters. Fleets change with time, that was only 10 years ago, what will your fleet look like 10 years from now? Neither you nor I have any clue on that and neither will an arbitrator.

You state that an arbitrator will definitely look at retirements yet Nicolau ignored all of the East's pilots claims about attrition and career expectations. How do you explain that? Just to be clear he also ignored the West's pilots claims that the East was days away from liquidation so they had no careers left.

Again, retirements only mean something if you make some prediction about future fleet size, even if you predict a static fleet. How does your prediction of a static fleet differ from a prediction of fleet growth? Both are future predictions which will change with time. Given the recent history, growth at Delta is easier to prove than a static fleet at Northwest. I believe that arbitrators will avoid these future looks because they are just a guess. Somehow you think your guess at the future is more relevant than a company's business plan that has been designed by management and approved by the Board of Directors. You must be a good guesser.

Your retirements hit a few years earlier than Delta's, but then Delta has much more retirements. You would have to convince an arbitrator that the short time when you have more is the only relevant time, please provide that explanation.

Date of hire used to be written into ALPA Merger Policy and it was removed. The US Air arbitration was the first big merger since the policy was changed. You are kidding yourself if you think it will not be viewed as precedent in any future arbitrations. Date of hire was specifically removed, the world changed since the Roberts award.

I believe that Northwest just had 70 displacements. Delta just bid out 70 new positions for the 777 (35 each seat). Does that trend mean anything to you? The 737-700's show up next month. The next 777 delivery is in December.

You guys must be betting a lot on the Date of Hire concept, the one that was specifically removed from ALPA policy. Each month the ratios get worse and worse for your side.
I love that you guys simply leave out that DAL announced parking some planes also. Does this ring a bell?

"Delta Air Lines announced a domestic downsizing to help negotiate rising fuel costs and a slowing US economy, with each carrier planning to ground 15-20 mainline aircraft this year and DL also aiming to slash its workforce by approximately 2,000."

Last edited by Superpilot92; 05-29-2008 at 05:31 PM.
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