Below is an email exchange between Lt Gen Brady (AF/CVA) and Lt Gen
Lichte (AF/A1) regarding a question that came up about pilot bonuses and
VSP at a conference that I recently attended.


===============Break, Break=================


Art, (Lt Gen Lichte: AF/CVA)

I understand during your recent world travels that you were cornered on
bonuses. In particular, we understand you were asked why we would
continue to pay retention bonuses to pilots at the same time we were
offering separation incentive pay and conducting Force Shaping programs.
BLUF: Both programs are necessary to ensure we retain our warfighting
skills while we also meet our goals for end strength and skills mix.

ACP provides us the retention incentive to bridge the gap between when
pilots end their initial ADSC and when retirement proximity helps with
retention. The long term ACP contracts we use provide stability and
help us maintain warfighting capability. Without the incentives the
long lead times, high training costs, and volatile external pilot market
could rapidly degrade our warfighting capability. In contrast, the
force shaping programs are designed to reduce specific skill sets and
year groups to ensure we meet end strength and skill mix goals.
Sometimes these programs overlap as we incentivize some to get out while
also paying some to stay in. Remember that the force shaping programs
are temporary measures to help us reach the right size and shape of our
force. The bonus programs are longer term efforts to make sure we
compete for and incentivize airmen in high demand, hazardous duty, or
hard to fill programs.

My folks have provided two talking papers on the subject of ACP and
bonuses in general.

Bottomline: this is not about "good guys", or even about who "deserves"
a bonus (a case which even general officers continually try to make to
me).....this is about a business case related to what it takes to
sustain a force.

Roger (Lt Gen Brady: AF/A1)

Always remember this simple fact: AFPC has their heads so far up their collective kiesters, that they have no idea what the hell they are doing... The system is hard broke. We'll have a stop loss soon enough and people screaming that the sky is falling. And to think, these cycles seem to be happening faster and faster. I think twice now in my career...

So to read the quoted general.... How little can we pay folks to stay in until the promise of retirement keeps them here vs. how little can we pay overages to leave before we have to give them a retirement check.

Tcha, as if... the real BLUF (Bottom line up front, or the buzzword for the Attention Deficit Disordered Generations)- Go ANG or Reserves. Active duty doesn't want your business.

Fts
 

Just curious, did you ever look at FTS for 2 years to SELRES/Airlines...

Truer words have never been written on this forum. In my 10 years of AD I came to that conclusion as well. Thankfully the USAF can fly extremely well. It sucks at everything else to include personnel, security, services and CE. I spent my first 3 years in the USAF in the Support Group as a cop officer. All every officer in the Support fields do is think of ways to get promoted and attract attention. There are thousands of support positions that should be contracted out. Releasing pilots early now is absolutely absurd. Paying them to separate so close to their committments expiring is FWA IMO. Take advantage of it if you can though.

Unfortunately any pilot/nav is not eligible to apply under the FY08 program. Funny all these years they've been telling us the AMC community is overmanned...

GNH

FY 07 results are now at AFPC under personnel statistics. Talk about fudged numbers!! The first slide shows Total FY07 "initial" eligibles at 853. The number they use for all of their computations are what they are calling the FY07 current initial eligibles at 746. Hmmm...a good 107 less pilots? So according to their graphic they had a take rate of 62.7%. Do the numbers with the "initial" eligibles and the rate drops to 54.8%. That's a lot closer to what the AF expected at 50%.

Any news on this years ACP? Going up?

Rand Corp has a report from 2007 that says the USAF lost little by getting rid of the 20 year ACP bonus in 2005, but would Lose 15% of it's officers if it removed the ACP bonus of 5 years, keeping w/ the spirit of the email from Gen Brady above.

Don't expect to see ACP go away. It may go up, but probably not. I think AFPC's massaging of the numbers shows a healthy outcome for them, I didn't get the feel that the numbers fell short. If the USAF needs a 50% take rate- they got it on AFPC paper.

ACP take rates are only a part of the story. VSP, Regular Separations at end of ADSC and Palace Chase numbers are not readily integrated yet into numbers I've seen. I think they whipped up a little "perfect storm" in the last 2 years and haven't figured out how to explain it on paper yet.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR470/

http://wwa.afpc.randolph.af.mil/demographics/

Under "Retention Analysis" tab, follow the "FY 07 Pilot ACP Summary" Link

Due to the public nature of this forum, I can't give specific numbers but this info came first hand from a Charleston buddy. Manning numbers are healthy on paper. The problem is that the types of pilots are very junior. The number of Instructor Pilots and some of the AD C-17 bases is jaw dropping low. I really mean it...JAW DROPPING LOW! They are heavy on co-pilots and the senior captains/junior majors are leaving because of separation/PCS (most guys are going UAVs or to Altus). A huge vacuum of experience has been created.

It will be interesting to watch everything unfold. Moose and I both received emails asking us to take a survey about how we felt about coming back on active duty. I recall using language in my response something to the effect of p!ssing into the wind. However, I admit that I will prostitute myself out for the right price. I just need to make sure I have my established line number with whatever airline I decide to go to (still haven't made a final decision yet...I likely will make it by the end of the week).

The way I read the message...ONLY "initial" eligibles were authorized to take ACP.

Correct, Initial eligibles. I had a DOS via VSP 3 months prior to the ACP paperwork being signed or rejected, so I don't show up in the numbers. I told that Rand survey to prepare the compensation package the roughnecks worked out w/ NASA in "Armageddon". I read that SECDEF Gates said "No" to Stoploss initially back in Jan 07, mostly referencing the Army, though it's a POTUS decision/order if used.

Not sure if you all have heard that the Army is so desperate to retain officers that they have offered an attempt at a bonus. 35K to CPT and 1LT(P)s for three year ADSO non-concurrent with current ADSO's. There are other incentives but the goal of HRC is to retain 90% of all eligible Captains.

My unscientific study based on my organizations results is that only about 25% (3 of about 12) have taken the bonus/incentive package.

I have to wonder how confident HRC was that a bunch of late 20's early 30's Officers with families and college degrees and headhunters e-mailing them left and right would fall for a "junior enlisted" type of bonus in order to spend at least three more years of 12-15 month deployments for (basically after taxes) 8K a year.

FWIW, I happily bypassed the bonus. I can't believe how much happier I am, I swear my blood pressure dropped by 20 points overnight.

Same tune is happening in the Navy. One stat that just was passed on to us was 20/25 EP(early promote) guys dropped their letter from the VFA FRS world. That is 20 out of 25 FRS EP's who were all EP's in their fleet squadrons. Can't wait to see what next years' ADHSB produces for results. I wonder how many below zone dudes will get pulled to in zone for the O-4 screen board to make the DH numbers work out. I'm with you Riddler, I made my decision in May and haven't looked back once. I know the grass isn't always greener on the other side but it can't be nearly as brown. :)

That would be a pretty accurate assessment of things around CHS. Sad but very true.

They're sending C17 guys to UAVs again? Hadn't heard.

Is manpower really so difficult? It seems the AF just can't figure it out...I lost some good friends to force shaping and now the AF says force shaping didn'tw work....

-LAFF

All the SECAF said was that force shaping didn't save enough money to pay for the recapitalization programs like they believed. That's not a manpower issue, that's a finance/budget/acquisitions issue.

My finance issue got a lot better today! The VSP check just arrived and I can't seem to get this grin off my face. I left active duty in Sep, took orders with the AF reserve in Oct and will hopefully get a class date at SWA late spring. I got out 18 months early so I'm sure that I'm left out of the retention numbers.

Hasta la vista, active duty. Good luck to everyone left as you continue to do more with less.

I just hope I get out before they start Stop Loss again.

Don't you have to pay the VSP back if you're going to the Reserves or ANG?

Spoken like a true KoolAid drinker. :rolleyes: All kidding aside, all the numbers manipulation the AF and Navy can do to make us think manpower is at the correct end strength will come to light here in the next couple years if not already. There are some extremely high vis issues going on in the Navy right now and I don't imagine the AF is any different.

Yes and no; there are a couple of threads full of all the details. As long as I don't retire from the reserves or voluntarily accept orders longer than 180 consecutive days, I shouldn’t have to repay a dime.

Marine Corps doesn't really care if I dropped my letter. This is now the 3rd year in a row the retention bonus for Hornet pilots dropped. (25 to 18 and now 15) They just shut down an active Hornet squadron and 3 reserve Hornet squadrons. Supposedly we are the "healthiest" group among Marine aviators. That sounds great on paper, until you look at a ready room with half the seats empty because all the O-3's and O-4's are overseas on IA's.

I'm not sure what exactly goes on up at headquarters, but the word denial seems to come to mind quite a bit lately.

I'm hearing its not because Hornets are that healthy moreso the helo guys are that thin and let's face it, they are getting the lion's share of the work these days and the most burdened. While I agree with what you're saying I personally think not buying the Superhornet is now forcing the Marine Corps hand a bit. Hard to keep legacy squadrons around when you don't have FLE left on the airframes or simply not enough airplanes to make a squadron. 8000 hours is getting close on alot of jets at one time. The only hope is that the Navy transitions sooner so the Marines can take our jets. The problem with that thinking is we don't fly D's except at the FRS and they are already a huge issue there. Hence the single seat FAC(A) program is up and running.

Even if you do retire from the reserves, you still get the TRICARE starting at age 60 (if they still have TRICARE in 30 years). I'm sure by then your SWA Profit Sharing and 401K and years of well invested Captains pay will more than make up for the income your not getting because you took the VSP.

Nevermind if you just invested the TSP now and drew on it at retirement.

Same stuff I went through 20 years ago. Man I would love to bag some traps on the old Kitty Hawk. Alas that's gone,,, or roar into the break at Miramar at just under mach. Oh that's been passed over to the marines. Well maybe one last trip in the old Tomcat. OOOPPPPSSS Nevermind.

Got out of AD back in '86 and went reserves till '95. Never looked back. Oh I've had my rough spots with Eastern Air Lines, but life on the civilian cargo side has been A-OK. Its natural to fear getting out. Its the fear of the unknown. But hey it wasn't the fear of getting shot at that drove me out but rather the fear of constant B.S. paperwork.

Good Luck to all of you in whatever path you choose.

Turkeys and Skyhawks forever.....................:cool:

BagEx? Never saw one in my entire JO tour. Sh*t Hot Break? We're limited to 350 in the break. My how times have changed.

OTOH, were I actually working a full line at my LCC and not on mil leave, I'd make around 60k as a 3rd year FO flying close to 1000 hours. Due to my (admittely self imposed) commute, I'd have 1 or possibly 2 days at home per week and spend 20+ hours per week commuting in coach in addition to my line flying. Yes, I could move, but why move for a job you hope not to keep? (I'm still saying 3 years later)

After running the numbers, and considering the active duty retirement (the biggie), tax benefits, health care, etc, I WAS making the equivilant of mid - high level captain pay while on active duty. And that's not considering the ACIP I passed up. Getting out turned out to be a pretty bad financial decision for me, at least so far. There's still hope for UPS/FDX though I suppose.....

My point? For every story like Lil J's, there's a counter story. Yes, active duty sucks, but I separated for improved quality of life and higher earning potential - I got neither.

I separted for family concerns.
While I am not making the $ I am home 220+ days a year rather than gone 220, plus I pick up an extra 30+ days a year by picking trips that layover in my home town. My quality of life revolves around being home, not the lifestyle. My mom was an AA STEWARDESS for 41 years. I grew up in the company. I grew up dreaming of the glamor. The reality is it has long gone by.
Being a pilot used to be a respected profession like doctor, or lawyer. Sadly none of these professions get respect anymore.

Wow. I can see why you'd be inclined to stay in. As a C-17 IP, I've spent just over 2 of the last 3 years away from my wife and kids. I'm PCSing to Altus just to get a break from this stuff. And of course, others touched on the fact that when you are home, you still don't get to enjoy you time not deployed since the wing will need someone to be the POC for this or that complete waste of time...

I was referring to the guys in the F-15E community. Anyway, The AF better get a clue. As Woody Hayes used to say, "you win with people." Don't know which desk jockey is telling the air staff that F-35s and F-22s and C-17s will fly themselves but from talking with most of my friends, the C-17 community is going to be hurting once everyone come up on their commitments.

UAVs
 

Yeah, a good friend just got screwed with one. And here's the kicker, he WANTED to deploy (To build hours and experience) with the squadron and continue to another flying assignment and will now get neither. Our squadron got briefed on this UAV potential and it's amazing that guys will have to fight to keep flying. It was as if layoffs were going to occur.

Those are unbelievable numbers! 20/25!! Did your CO go into Cardiac Arrest? Emergency JOPA meeting with the CO?

Funny how the numbers stuff works out. I have seen some pretty slick shifting of this and that to get the results you want!!!

I dropped my letter this time last year. Passed on the bonus after much thought. Lots of the reasons discussed here are the reason for my decision. Kind of a surprise to everyone when I punched, after 11 years I had seen enough of AD. I stayed in the reserves though. Even being a new guy where I am now it is SO much better than being a DH where I was!

Did you know Eric A.? Lost touch. Wondering where he ended up.

What was this guys qual level (IP,AC,CP). Sometimes I think a group of 4 year olds could run manning better. VSP, non-vol's to UAV's, and yet we're still trying to buy more. Who's gonna fly the damn things?

? for Moose pilot
 

Moose,
So would you bag your LCC gig and go back on active duty if you had the opportunity?

Just curious how many dudes out there are in a similar situation...not satisfied with how things are on the outside and would jump at the opportunity to get back in and finish out 20 years? Wonder is AFPC would put some kind of code on your AFSC to ensure you get hosed at every opportunity.

[quote=Rocco;257395]Those are unbelievable numbers! 20/25!! Did your CO go into Cardiac Arrest? Emergency JOPA meeting with the CO?quote]


No, however the Commodore did call a meeting with all of us that got out and asked a series of questions about why we're getting out. I think the numbers hit the Bureau at a pretty staggering pace and he was tasked to find out why. Not much the CO's can do about guys getting out as the problems are well above the squadron/CAG level. Time will tell.

Badger, are you at 106? If so, Rhino or Hornet side?

No, however the Commodore did call a meeting with all of us that got out and asked a series of questions about why we're getting out. I think the numbers hit the Bureau at a pretty staggering pace and he was tasked to find out why. Not much the CO's can do about guys getting out as the problems are well above the squadron/CAG level. Time will tell.[/quote]


"Time will tell". I will be surprised what effects IA's, decrease manning on the boat side, helo community. etc. etc....has on future numbers in the next few years.

I only know 3 people "staying in" from their JO tours....might have something to do with 10 years prior "E" time. 3-4 years to retirement plus a bonus would be hard to pass up I guess.

That's a tough question and each guy's situation is different. If I could rewind life a couple years and have the 20 year ACIP bonus available again, I'd do it in a heartbeat. With half up front, the compound interest and/or investment growth works out to be quite a large sum. Even going back on AD today without the bonus available I'd still come out well ahead financially. With each passing day and active duty pay period with the AFRES, the incentive gets larger. Time value of money is they key here.

Try this: find an online retirement calculator. Input some numbers to answer this question: "instead of an O5 pension starting at age 43 (or whatever your 20 year retirement age is), what if Uncle Sam paid me cash to invest, so that starting at age 43 I could withdraw it at an amount equal to said O5 pension until age xx (where xx equals your expected age at death)." Put another way: Let's say you're age 33 now and have 10 years to AD retirement. How much would you have to invest each of those 10 years in order to withdraw it for 40 years (or more - 3 out of my 4 grandparents lived past 90) at the rate of O5 retirment pay to end up with zero remaining at death? The result will blow you away, and that's essentially how much your pension is worth in addition to your salary.

Then again, I'm the breadwinner in the family and my wife has a very portable (but not very well paying) job and could work anywhere in the country. If she earned a bunch of $$ and PCSing all the time would hinder that earning potential, then it may have made sense to separate so our combined earnings would surpass my reduced earnings. Such is not the case in my family.

So to answer your question, yes I'd go back on AD. It may suck, but 6-7 years is a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of your life. Of course as soon as I'd sign the paperwork, UPS/FDX would start hiring again and call me the day before I left on a 1 year remote :D