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2007 Pilot Retention Rates

Old 08-30-2007, 12:47 PM
  #1  
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Default 2007 Pilot Retention Rates

I just got done reading an article in the AF Times online that came out two weeks ago: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/20...ention_070813/


Pilot retention in 2007 surpasses expectations

Are you bagging me?

Just look at AMCs takerate...44%, down from 65% last year if I remember right. Material Command had the higest rates...and how many aiplanes do they have in comparison??

In today's AF of do more with less and do it while you're deployed or TDY, there is a snapping point just around the corner and no one (leadership) is willing to accept that or do anything about it. Add in the constant excercises and inspections that continue to keep people away from home and bogged down with minutia, I forsee a record number of pilots exiting in 2008, especially with the airline hiring flood gates open.

I would be curious to know how the 2007 rention numbers would look had it included all those that took the VSP or Palace Chased that should have been included in the numbers. I'm sure those people weren't included in the 853 pilots eligible. Case in point, a guy in my Sq took the VSP a whole year before his commitment was up...he would have been elibible for the bonus in 2008, but because he exited this month he won't count against the retention numbers next year.

Compare the number of eligible pilots in the past and see if there weren't more pilots eligible then. With 1,100 pilots coming out of UPT every year...that's about 250 pilots unaccounted for in 2007...about 22%. If those people took the VSP or Palace chased then they certainly did NOT take the bonus and 2007 retention rates start to look a lot more
grim.

Congress needs to act this year with some incentives to compete with the airlines or else they aren't going to have enough of a force to bribe for 2009.
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Old 08-30-2007, 01:01 PM
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The Navy is in the same boat(no pun intended). The Hornet community next year will not have enough bodies "opting in" for dept head screen board. I am sure other fixed wing communities are the same. This year VFA had a surplus of 2-7 bodies(for 65 DH slots) depending on which spreadsheet you look at. That included 2nd screen guys that didnt make it last year. I've also heard, not confirmed, that the Naval Aviation was short some 150 new accessions this past FY. I wonder what that will do down the road.

I just recieved an email from my CO telling me that the Commodore would like to sit down with those of us that opted out and find out our reasons why. I guess it has the Bureau's attention. Gee, I wonder why. 6-8 month cruise followed by 6-9 months(working up) at home followed by 4-6 months on the boat gain, followed shortly thereafter by a year in Iraq or Afghanistan. That pill is a bit hard for those of us trying to have a family to swallow. I could care less what Congress does for the bonus. They could make it $50/grand a year, and the QOL of getting out would still be worth it in the end. My $.02
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Old 08-30-2007, 01:34 PM
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Would the AF or Navy be interested in any of the young wannabees that haunt APC? The "whine du jour" is that flight training is expensive and airlines won't hire them because they don't have the minimum flight times.
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Old 08-30-2007, 01:45 PM
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Hard to say. I didn't join the Navy to build time for the airlines. I joined because I wanted to fly jets off of aircraft carriers and serve my country and in the end be a squadron skipper. I never intended to get out of the Navy even as much as a year ago. The past year and the direction the Navy has gone in "doing more with less" at the expense of people(it's greatest asset) is what did me in. I would argue that the vast majority of "youngsters" that haunt these boards are looking for a 'free' ticket to the airlines in terms of flight time. Wrong answer and wrong reasons.
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Old 08-30-2007, 02:29 PM
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BDGERJMN
Interesting stats! Haven't heard those numbers yet. I joined with similar intentions as well but now find myself siting on the fence with the clock ticking and wondering which way to go. The money is still way to short for me to do that much time away from home again. Plus I don't know if I could ever call my self a Hornet Guy
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Old 08-30-2007, 03:49 PM
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I'll only speak for USAF AMC C-17s. I never planned on getting out, but had zero reasons to stay in at the 12 year point. The VSP program gave me a nice lump to leave 4 months earlier than the DOS I would have taken for free. The numbers on the chart probably don't show me at all. I separated before the system offered me the retention bonus from another program and pot of money, so no lying staff puke would ever show me there. The VSP takers are a "good thing" in one respect because we made that program "happy" by taking it's offering and saving taxpayers from our future active duty retirement.

Dumb and dumber. Both programs managed by folks I would not chose to fly with in my jet or formation, no doubt- but great staff folks on powerpoint I'm sure.

I predict stop loss by Christmas for some of the MDS/MWSs in at least AMC. Happy New Year. After elections it'll all start anew one way or the other.
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Old 08-30-2007, 05:54 PM
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Moose said it: Why would the military ask congress for more bonus money when they have proven that they are not afraid to implement stop loss? It's free and obviously AFPC cares more about bodies than quality. No hope for morale in the forseeable future.
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Old 08-30-2007, 09:53 PM
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I'll be the dissenting voice here....I'm taking the bonus and staying in. Don't get me wrong....I'm not drinking the Kool Aid or thinking that things are currently any better than they are -- things do suck and have been getting worse recently. Like others, my opinion on the subject has changed significantly for the worse in the last year or two.

BUT...if the AF is hemmoraging pilots as bad as it appears, perhaps things will change for the positive on AD. Plus, having recently run the numbers for staying in the AF and grabbing a retirement vs jumping ship right now, it's a slightly better bet for me to hang on the last 8 years and get the retirement.

How is staying in the military at this point any different than people applying to Delta or United (where pay and work rules are NOTHING like they used to be back in the day) and hoping that the next contract will improve?

Yes, there are going to be crappy parts -- more deployments, maybe a 365 or a remote...but is that really any worse than starving with no medical insurance in your first year at CAL, or sitting reserve for a couple years at a crappy base you have to commute to?

If it were 10 years ago, and the pay scales were different, it would be a SURE THING -- run, run, run away. But it isn't. In my mind, it's pretty much dead even right now.
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Old 08-31-2007, 04:13 AM
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Hacker,

I will tell you why it's different, at least for me, and agree to disagree with you on some levels. When you shut the aircraft door on a plane for FedEx, UPS, SWA, or any other airline you go home and you don't think about work, you dont think about your next deployment, you're not management, you're not anything, you're just a bus driver. That appeals to me right now. I want to spend time with my family and friends and do the things that I haven't gotten to do in the past 10 years when I'm not working. I know I will spend time away, and thats fine, but 3-4 day chunks or even 7 day chunks is better than 6 months at a crack.
As for the retirement? Sure it's nice, but if people in our year groups with our backgrounds(I'm not saying the airlines are the only option for guys like us, b/c they certainly aren't) are relying on the military pension for QOL when they are 60, then they have done something grossly wrong with their money. Is it a nice offset for the first few years? Sure, but history and math has proven that if you make the break at your MSR or DOS or whatever the AF calls it, the money works out about the same. This isn't about money for me at all, its purely a QOL decision. I don't need to be rich to have a good QOL, esp if I have been smart with my money to this point. If I was in the AF where they do care about people to some extent, I might agree with you.

Pitts, you are a Hornet guy! I haven't met one former turkey driver who doesn't like the Rhino in the end. Different debate for sure.
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Old 08-31-2007, 04:55 AM
  #10  
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Originally Posted by Hacker15e View Post
I'll be the dissenting voice here....I'm taking the bonus and staying in. Don't get me wrong....I'm not drinking the Kool Aid or thinking that things are currently any better than they are -- things do suck and have been getting worse recently. Like others, my opinion on the subject has changed significantly for the worse in the last year or two.

BUT...if the AF is hemmoraging pilots as bad as it appears, perhaps things will change for the positive on AD. Plus, having recently run the numbers for staying in the AF and grabbing a retirement vs jumping ship right now, it's a slightly better bet for me to hang on the last 8 years and get the retirement.

How is staying in the military at this point any different than people applying to Delta or United (where pay and work rules are NOTHING like they used to be back in the day) and hoping that the next contract will improve?

Yes, there are going to be crappy parts -- more deployments, maybe a 365 or a remote...but is that really any worse than starving with no medical insurance in your first year at CAL, or sitting reserve for a couple years at a crappy base you have to commute to?

If it were 10 years ago, and the pay scales were different, it would be a SURE THING -- run, run, run away. But it isn't. In my mind, it's pretty much dead even right now.
If anyone calls you out and says you are stupid for making the choice to stay in, then that person is an idiot. Only you and you alone know what the best choice for you and your family is. I was right where you are this time last year. I even had the bonus paperwork filled out and then an opportunity came out of nowhere and I ran with it. So far, no regrets. I'm confident you will have no regrets either. Just run ahead full steam and don't look back.

Don't ever feel like you need to justify your choice to us "clowns" on this board. Good luck.
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