2007 Pilot Retention Rates
 

I just got done reading an article in the AF Times online that came out two weeks ago: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/20...ention_070813/


Pilot retention in 2007 surpasses expectations

Are you bagging me?

Just look at AMCs takerate...44%, down from 65% last year if I remember right. Material Command had the higest rates...and how many aiplanes do they have in comparison??

In today's AF of do more with less and do it while you're deployed or TDY, there is a snapping point just around the corner and no one (leadership) is willing to accept that or do anything about it. Add in the constant excercises and inspections that continue to keep people away from home and bogged down with minutia, I forsee a record number of pilots exiting in 2008, especially with the airline hiring flood gates open.

I would be curious to know how the 2007 rention numbers would look had it included all those that took the VSP or Palace Chased that should have been included in the numbers. I'm sure those people weren't included in the 853 pilots eligible. Case in point, a guy in my Sq took the VSP a whole year before his commitment was up...he would have been elibible for the bonus in 2008, but because he exited this month he won't count against the retention numbers next year.

Compare the number of eligible pilots in the past and see if there weren't more pilots eligible then. With 1,100 pilots coming out of UPT every year...that's about 250 pilots unaccounted for in 2007...about 22%. If those people took the VSP or Palace chased then they certainly did NOT take the bonus and 2007 retention rates start to look a lot more
grim.

Congress needs to act this year with some incentives to compete with the airlines or else they aren't going to have enough of a force to bribe for 2009.

The Navy is in the same boat(no pun intended). The Hornet community next year will not have enough bodies "opting in" for dept head screen board. I am sure other fixed wing communities are the same. This year VFA had a surplus of 2-7 bodies(for 65 DH slots) depending on which spreadsheet you look at. That included 2nd screen guys that didnt make it last year. I've also heard, not confirmed, that the Naval Aviation was short some 150 new accessions this past FY. I wonder what that will do down the road.

I just recieved an email from my CO telling me that the Commodore would like to sit down with those of us that opted out and find out our reasons why. I guess it has the Bureau's attention. Gee, I wonder why. 6-8 month cruise followed by 6-9 months(working up) at home followed by 4-6 months on the boat gain, followed shortly thereafter by a year in Iraq or Afghanistan. That pill is a bit hard for those of us trying to have a family to swallow. I could care less what Congress does for the bonus. They could make it $50/grand a year, and the QOL of getting out would still be worth it in the end. My $.02

Would the AF or Navy be interested in any of the young wannabees that haunt APC? The "whine du jour" is that flight training is expensive and airlines won't hire them because they don't have the minimum flight times.

Hard to say. I didn't join the Navy to build time for the airlines. I joined because I wanted to fly jets off of aircraft carriers and serve my country and in the end be a squadron skipper. I never intended to get out of the Navy even as much as a year ago. The past year and the direction the Navy has gone in "doing more with less" at the expense of people(it's greatest asset) is what did me in. I would argue that the vast majority of "youngsters" that haunt these boards are looking for a 'free' ticket to the airlines in terms of flight time. Wrong answer and wrong reasons.

BDGERJMN
Interesting stats! Haven't heard those numbers yet. I joined with similar intentions as well but now find myself siting on the fence with the clock ticking and wondering which way to go. The money is still way to short for me to do that much time away from home again. Plus I don't know if I could ever call my self a Hornet Guy :D

I'll only speak for USAF AMC C-17s. I never planned on getting out, but had zero reasons to stay in at the 12 year point. The VSP program gave me a nice lump to leave 4 months earlier than the DOS I would have taken for free. The numbers on the chart probably don't show me at all. I separated before the system offered me the retention bonus from another program and pot of money, so no lying staff puke would ever show me there. The VSP takers are a "good thing" in one respect because we made that program "happy" by taking it's offering and saving taxpayers from our future active duty retirement.

Dumb and dumber. Both programs managed by folks I would not chose to fly with in my jet or formation, no doubt- but great staff folks on powerpoint I'm sure.

I predict stop loss by Christmas for some of the MDS/MWSs in at least AMC. Happy New Year. After elections it'll all start anew one way or the other.

Moose said it: Why would the military ask congress for more bonus money when they have proven that they are not afraid to implement stop loss? It's free and obviously AFPC cares more about bodies than quality. No hope for morale in the forseeable future.

I'll be the dissenting voice here....I'm taking the bonus and staying in. Don't get me wrong....I'm not drinking the Kool Aid or thinking that things are currently any better than they are -- things do suck and have been getting worse recently. Like others, my opinion on the subject has changed significantly for the worse in the last year or two.

BUT...if the AF is hemmoraging pilots as bad as it appears, perhaps things will change for the positive on AD. Plus, having recently run the numbers for staying in the AF and grabbing a retirement vs jumping ship right now, it's a slightly better bet for me to hang on the last 8 years and get the retirement.

How is staying in the military at this point any different than people applying to Delta or United (where pay and work rules are NOTHING like they used to be back in the day) and hoping that the next contract will improve?

Yes, there are going to be crappy parts -- more deployments, maybe a 365 or a remote...but is that really any worse than starving with no medical insurance in your first year at CAL, or sitting reserve for a couple years at a crappy base you have to commute to?

If it were 10 years ago, and the pay scales were different, it would be a SURE THING -- run, run, run away. But it isn't. In my mind, it's pretty much dead even right now.

Hacker,

I will tell you why it's different, at least for me, and agree to disagree with you on some levels. When you shut the aircraft door on a plane for FedEx, UPS, SWA, or any other airline you go home and you don't think about work, you dont think about your next deployment, you're not management, you're not anything, you're just a bus driver. That appeals to me right now. I want to spend time with my family and friends and do the things that I haven't gotten to do in the past 10 years when I'm not working. I know I will spend time away, and thats fine, but 3-4 day chunks or even 7 day chunks is better than 6 months at a crack.
As for the retirement? Sure it's nice, but if people in our year groups with our backgrounds(I'm not saying the airlines are the only option for guys like us, b/c they certainly aren't) are relying on the military pension for QOL when they are 60, then they have done something grossly wrong with their money. Is it a nice offset for the first few years? Sure, but history and math has proven that if you make the break at your MSR or DOS or whatever the AF calls it, the money works out about the same. This isn't about money for me at all, its purely a QOL decision. I don't need to be rich to have a good QOL, esp if I have been smart with my money to this point. If I was in the AF where they do care about people to some extent, I might agree with you.

Pitts, you are a Hornet guy! I haven't met one former turkey driver who doesn't like the Rhino in the end. Different debate for sure.

If anyone calls you out and says you are stupid for making the choice to stay in, then that person is an idiot. Only you and you alone know what the best choice for you and your family is. I was right where you are this time last year. I even had the bonus paperwork filled out and then an opportunity came out of nowhere and I ran with it. So far, no regrets. I'm confident you will have no regrets either. Just run ahead full steam and don't look back.

Don't ever feel like you need to justify your choice to us "clowns" on this board. Good luck.

My friend you are wrong. While the medical insurance doesn't kick in till your 7th month at CAL, the QOL is ten times better. I don't know of many pilots who'd rather be in hellhole Iraq, than on the beach drinking Daquiri's in St Maarten. Oh, I'm sure there's a few, but not many. Most of the newhires on the B737 in EWR are on reserve for all of 2-3 WEEKS. They are holding 15 day off lines in less than a month. Wow.........pretty tough, eh? Many of the military reserve pilots I fly with are fed up with this whole war shenanigin stuff, and are bailing out left and right. Get out, and join the Reseves as a CAP (Civil Air Patrol) Liaison, or AF Academy Liaison. You'll still get a pension at 60, and not worry about being deployed 90% of the time while your kids are growing up without you. There's a reason so many pilots are bailing, and QOL is something the President, Congress, nor many of our senior leaders will ever figure out is the problem. They think living in a tent without a bathroom 5000 miles from home months on end is a lot of fun and worth an extra $500 in your paycheck. They are WRONG......... JMHO

I was just saying CAL as a rhetorical example. I wasn't looking to go point-for-point on what it's really like your first year.

My point was, there is suck-age on both sides of the fence. You're right...the QOL probably IS better, depending on how you look at it. My post was simply saying that the grass is not necessarily greener.

I worked with numerous Reservists at my last job who flew for Delta, FedEx, JetBlue, and American, and I listened intently to what they said at the bar about all aspects of the airline lifestyle. I read up as much as I can, and participate in the forums here -- I feel like I have a decent handle on how things are at the Majors versus how things are on active duty for a fighter guy. I recognize that there are low points staying on active duty (hell, I'm writing this post while sitting at Bagram in my 4th month of deployment). I also recognize that there are things that staying in offer me that the gig at the Majors can't. For me, the indicators are pointing slightly toward staying in...so, that's what I'm doing.

I think and re-think the decision I've made every day, and the answer that's best for me, today, is to stay in. Maybe I'll regret that decision, maybe not. Again, if it were 10 years ago and the pay and work rules were different, it would be a no-brainer for me. I'd all ready be a civilian and hopefully working for a Major. I want to be sitting on the beach at SXM as well someday.

If getting out was right for you, then great! I don't second guess anybody's decision to stay or go. The fact of the matter is that I hope to fly with some of you when I try and get to the Majors in the future.

Minor thread redirect/unhijack. Retention rates- sounds like the mid 90s. STOP LOSS happened in that time period, that was my point for a consideration. No new history, just repetitions. Plenty of clowns are also history buffs, or at least have heard or seen the cycles.

One thing to consider is also age 65. The old math based on age 60 rules that showed you were ALWAYS better to separate and goto the airlines by a certain age rather than stick it 20 years for an active duty retirement won't apply, I think. W/ age 65 allowing you to still slog longer in the airlines after a retirement around age 43 from the military- it may actually pay off to retire from AD- anyone figure that out? I had pondered it only long enough to realize it was time to go for me, regardless of dollars.

Second minor issue is we're in the 2 year gap where the AF went from 8 year SUPT commitments to 10 year indentured servitude (Congress calls it that)- there should be a downturn in those able to get out, and the SUPT machine was just getting on speed also back when the 10 years started- there are lots of AD AF folks w/ a few years left on their committment and in front of them are those that took the bonus to stay in or have either just separated at the end of 8 years or left on some 12 step program.

That AFTimes article was just about the retention bonus takers and doesn't actually paint an accurate picture.

Either way, it'll be an interesting ride- just be on the one that suits you better.

Hacker, just curious as to how QOL in the fighter world is vs the heavy world. The reason I ask is that most fighter guys I know are all about staying in, while that's definitely not the case in the heavy world. How often do you guys deploy? How does the AEF concept work out for you guys? How many of you go to a predator or ALO assignment after your first tour, and how many of THOSE guys eventually return to a fighter cockpit?

Within the Fighter community the deployment rate and QOL is vastly different. From an A-10 perspective we are gone all the time with BRAC cutting squadrons and still one squadron in one or both theaters constantly. But compare that with an F-15C squadron that does Noble Eagle stateside for their AEF and those guys are screaming to get deployed just to get some action. I think the F-16 guys are somewhere in between. Of note only 49 % of A-10 pilots took the bonus last year compared to ~65% for other fighters if I remember the article correctly.

I'm facing a 6 month non-flying deployment in Dec which happens to be the end of my 8 year commitment. That would be my 4th deployment. WWYD?

Sounds like the early/mid 80's, mid/late 90s and its happening again. When provided with options more folks are going to punch and see what the other side is like. As far as stoploss, highly unlikey you will see it as it puts a real bend on end of year authorized personnel numers - as a stoplossee (Detained 6 1/2 months passed my separation date) the bosses kept telling us we would not be released and that we were clowns for punching in spring of 2002, come summer and USAFs request for additional 10000 bodies beyond authorization gets shot down and BAM! we're released and oh by the way please be completely separated by Sep 30. Bottom line is if you like what you're doing - stay in take the bonus and lead from the front when your time to do so comes, don't like - quit, still want to log time on the governments dollar and fly the occaisional mission - find a guard or reserve job and the most important thing - Don't look back and second guess. As for me it all worked out and that six months with a pregnant wife, one small child and no health insurance just made me that much stronger. fwiw

Wow. ANother great post on APC. This guy hit the nail on the head. QOL is the number 1 reason to leave AD. I never realized how much my life sucked in the USAF until I got out. I knew it was bad, but it really rang true when I got hired at UPS. The money ain't bad--I'll make 150k as a 3d year FO while flying less than 250 hours, but the time off, establishing roots in the communuity, and enjoying life are priceless.

While the USAF continues to draw down and pay people to leave they are sending out feelers for pilot Reservists to come back on AD in staff tours. I got an email today wanting me to fill out a survey about what the USAF would have to do in order to get me to come back on AD.

I for one am dying to know what you wrote. Could have a lot of fun with that one.

In the F-15E community, the majority of guys will deploy once or twice on their first tour for 120 days each. Most of those guys will do an ALFA tours as their 2nd tour, and then come back to the jet on their 3rd tour.

I was a T-38 IP on my ALFA tour.

I've been very fortunate, apparently. I've been on active duty 12 years and deployed overseas a grand total of twice.

I'm guessing that the view from guys who have only been flying on AD after 9/11, and after the deployment pace picked up in '03, see things a lot differently than I do.

I know it's different but Marine grunts are lucky if they don't have 3 seven month deployments in one four year enlistment. I know a lot of guys that did four... Speaking of $htty retention...

So, they are trying to cherry pick Rated Reservists from what the powers that be no doubt perceive as not so great an airline QOL back to active duty..... An idea that is 2 years too late for many as the lines are picking back up/recalling/hiring.

Everyone that accepts such a return probably sends some poor pilot to the non-flying deployed AOR jobs, rather than getting a 2-3 year break home w/ the family not flying on the staff tour. It's bad enough to not fly on a staff job, I imagine. Talk about feeding the machine.

My conditions: Whomever I replace in the staff job gets to stay in their airframe and fly. (one of those king for a day type answers, I know)...

Give the 30 days of leave per year that Congress says we have. Stop doing more w/ less by stealing money, time and perceived lifestyle by getting 5-10% extra days out of me in a year. If you take my leave, repay at 2:1 in days or $.

Of course there will be your favorite proficiency keeper involved parked on the nearest ramp suiting your aviating needs. Golf club pods too, for those so inclined, while I'm being wing king for a day, might as well go for the gusto)....

I'm not sure how to make anything else politically correct enough to mess around with- The do more with less leadership will draw up a new pot of money and make this look like a great deal for all involved, or at least those that dreamt it up and made the survey. Probably right after looking around a 1/2 empty cube farm and handing his best staffer deployment orders or finding out the new replacement got rerouted to the AOR again.

Think about the scene in "Armageddon" where the roughnecks are negotiating w/ the NASA folks over compensation.... That would do!

I got that email also. I would have posted the message on here, but it would have probably gotten me into mucho trouble.

I remember telling my dad that I would not be surprised if I was given the opportunity to come back on Active Duty. I just didn't think it would happen so soon. Yikes!!!

I'm supposed to be getting out next year, around Oct hopefully. I applied for VSP, but got turned down. Can't even begin to tell you how happy I'm gonna be if they now stop-loss me.

As far as QOL, the fighter community and the airlift community are two different animals. AEF...what the hell is that? I'm "in a bucket", but somehow we have to deploy for 4 months out of every 8. Geez, doesn't quite fit the ol AEF construct somehow.

All I know is being told to wear PT gear 24/7, to wash my hands when I walk in the chow hall and flying a 1963 model C-130 has lost it's appeal and most of my buds are bailing as well. Same as usual tho...the bosses think everyone is happy and everyone wants to be a general.:rolleyes:

GNH

You're not at the Deid are ya?? "Morale is high...I repeat...morale is high"

Actually, I'm sitting on my couch in Fayettenam.

When we go out the door, we go to Ali. Actually from the couple of times I've dropped into the Deid it's a much better place to be. I'm sure being able to get off base and some of the other conveniences there are a little nicer. You there now? If so fly safe!

Later,

GNH

I spent 12 years active duty. In 8 years of active duty flying I was TDY 5yrs 5days overseas. I spent most of my time in the desert. I finally got wise and went Guard. When my Guard unit got BRAC'd I went Reserve. Big picture, resevre = better trips when I want to go, I get to still fly the plane I love, serve my country and still be home with my wife most nights. OH and btw I get to pilot brand 737-700 for AirTran to boot. Being short on pilots for the Air Force has been a problem since the force reduction in the early 90's. I just can't believe they are paying people to get out with TDY rates as high as they are. Yeah that do more with less attitude is crap. I would like to beat the heck out of the number cruncher who invented that phrase

I got the same email. They said not to forward it, because it has a link and a log number, but didn't say not to make fun of it in a forum.

Funny, as I was just paid a chunk of taxpayer change to bail at the 12 year point w/ VSP this year. Now they want me to tell Rand Corp what it would take for me to do a 3 year staff tour as a rated chop to let somebody else either deploy forward or season and not have to go to a staff job where they might not know what they are doing. Hmm.

I think it's time for the staff pukes to do more w/ less. I'll pass. Hmmm, maybe if they give a nice 15 year retirement package starting right away after the tour in my case... On second thought... Nope.

I'm at 14.5 years AD, never planned that. Wanted my 10 and out but when the time came, shortly after 9/11, things didn't look so hot in the job market. So I took the 5 year bonus. It had nothing to do with patriotism, I did my time. It was purely financial. My current job, is good. If I stay, I'll have 3yrs 5 mos until 20 for the AD retirement but I'm still thinking about punching next year for the QOL issues. The suck tour is coming up, I did two deployments in my 2 year DH tour.......granted, not an IA...not yet but I'd rather live the good life, less money for a start and collect my money at 60. My seniority may mean no reserves though so AD might be my only opition if I want any sort of retirement out of the military. I'm going to get something for all these years, just wish it were a reserve retirement now.

Moose,

You got out at the 12 year point on VSP huh? I passed that point in Jan and of course the didn't let me out. Unfortunately at this point the new program is in effect and it says NO 11M career folks, so I guess I'm screwed.

Oh well, one more year...as long as stop loss doens't kick in:mad:!

GNH

I will tell you why they are paying people to get out. It's cheaper for the AF or the Navy or whichever service faces this issue to pay people to get out and than to pay the retirements 10 years later when they can just "do more with less". That is simple math, and in the business model of "Naval Aviation Enterprise" or the "Airspeed" concept(I'm sure the USAF has the same buzz words) that is the bottom line. Unfortunately that bottom line is coming at the expense of people. Just another cycle........

It is also cheaper to let pilots Palace Chase to the ANG/Reserves, pay them part time and activate them when you need them - all while cutting training and flight hours and making the ANG/Reserves more and more like AD with never ending bull$hit.

I jumped ship to the ANG after only 4 years of AD last year and I haven't looked back. I'm back home with family and friends, I live in a community where being in the military is not common, and I'm loving the ANG. My intentions were to do it part-time and get an airline job, but was hired as an ART and the commercial world doesn't look as attractive as it used to be. I'm making a 6 figure income, still get to fly a few times a week, go on a trip every so often and I'm home every night. Right now, there's not much else I can ask for. If I can stick it out for another 20 years or so in the civil service, it won't be a shabby retirement either and I'd still be young enough for another 15 years in the airlines if I wanted. I'm sure once these post 9/11 contracts are a thing of the past (we hope), pay scales are going to go up significantly.

If nothing changes in the projected commercial airline growth over the next 5-10 years, retention is going to suffer big time unless they stop-loss people. It's amazing how this sine wave goes back and forth every 10 years or so.

Herc drivers have four months deployed swapped with four months home pretty consistent. Your only ways out of it are AETC or stick around for staff tour - which could be an unaccompanied year to the sandbox. QOL sucks and there will be a mass exodus as the committments come up. The only thing that will temper it will be the jump from 8 year to 10 year committments which will slow the floodgates and mask the real issue from AF leadership.

I love government accounting....I took VSP with 9 years in and got out one year before my pilot training committment expired. Buddy of mine is same year group, same qualifications, took the retention bonus to stay. Roughly we were both paid the same amount, one of us to stay and one of us to leave...somebody call the Fraud, Waste and Abuse Hotline.

Something doesn't make any sense-- they're announcing 2007 retention rates, yet FY07 doesn't end for another month, and I'm sure it'll take a couple weeks to analyze the data.

My guess is they have the numbers of those that will be off the books by end of FY07. The Navy needs 9-12 months notice to process a resignation so they would theoretically have the data that much sooner.

Yep. Somewhere around July-August, they'll stop accepting current fiscal year applications. Happened to me last year. I had to make a whole new application with "FY07" on it and run it up the chain again. Good times. Not.

I'd like an idiot's guide to understanding the airlines' pay scales.

Take year 1 for instance with Continental. I'm making $31 per hour and I'm "guaranteed" 72 hours. How much over that might I fly? Can I also sit another 72 hours of "reserve" in the same month, thus doubling my money?

And speaking of "reserve", is it mandatory that new hires sit a certain amount of it? If I don't live in my base city, am I required to go there and sit in a crash pad, or is it optional just to make more money?

Here's another question: Aircraft type? How is that determined? Do they tell you at the interview whether you're being considered for widebodies versus narrows? That seems to be a big deal in respect to 2d-3rd-4th year earnings!

There are rumors of new hires going direct to 777s at Continental. Anybody know if this is true? And if so, how do they pick which ones?

thread redirect
 

Roadking...you'll find plenty of folks willing to discuss 777 orders at CAL on one of the other forums. This is more of a military discussion thread/board.

To redirect - I saw that they added 11F and 12F to their list of AFSCs which are ineligible for force shaping. And I quote "due to overall manning and AFSC sustainment considerations". I'll bet that same line shows up on stop-loss in a year or so. When Gen Mosseley culls the force by another 20k of folks next year, maybe they'll get rid of all the enlisted cooks and cater all of our meals? Ridiculous.

I've heard some say stop loss and I've heard some say larger bonus. I think stop loss can only go so far (ie you can only impliment it for a year or two)...larger bonues will have to emerge to keep guys from taking off for the airlines, which by the looks of it are coming back from 9-11.