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Old 09-08-2009, 08:11 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by Adlerdriver View Post
It’s not going to be any easier for him to get a fighter pilot job or any flying position in the military for that matter
I actually believe it is easier for FlyHigh to get into the Air Force than a major. Majors aren’t hiring now and when they do, there are thousands of pilots that are ahead of him with tons of 121 experience. If you don’t have the massive amount of mutli pic turbine time they want, they won’t even look at you.

The Air Force, on the other hand, will look at you with zero time. Now, I don’t know much about fighters, but I do know that if you work hard for a pilot slot in the AF, there is a good chance of it paying off. Unlike the airlines, you don’t have to start preparing for a career in the Air Force praying that by the time you meet their standards they will be hiring.

I am sorry that so many think that expecting to be stuck at a regional is a horrible mindset and a sign that the career is dead. I am sorry, but as many have stated before it is dead and has been dead for years. That does not mean to give up on it and become content with the new status quo, but it also does not mean we should accept low paying jobs and brain wash ourselves into believing that we will be the lucky few who get to move on after a few years. That is the attitude that got us low wages. Everyone knew that the pay was bad, but they justified it by saying “I will only be here a few years, and then it will pay off when I get to the majors”. I think that mindset has done more harm than preparing to never get past the regional level.

I knew what this industry was when I started my training and I set my goals accordingly. My dream was to go into the Air Force and become a fighter pilot. Then I would go to the reserves and start at a major airline and make international captain before I retired. After doing some research, I modified my plan. I asked myself if I would still be happy if I could not get into the Air Force and my airline career peeked at commuter captain. Although it is depressing, I still thought that it would be better than sitting in an office and running that rat race. That doesn’t mean that I have forgotten about my dream, but I realize that it is only a dream.

So, FlyHigh, focus on the Air Force. You have more control of that career than you do of the airlines.
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Old 09-08-2009, 08:42 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Adlerdriver View Post
Perhaps FATboy was “scared” by the complete lack of judgment it shows to willingly embark on a career path with a final destination that’s the left seat of an RJ? I was holding out hope that he hadn’t meant that was his final career goal.

However, Kasserine, if that’s the most “realistic career expectation” (I have to agree with you on this - at least for those who choose to gain their flight experience via the standard civilian path), then why on earth would they do it?



If it’s “not pretty”, the most realistic end result is something to be bitter over at age 45 and realization of a “dream” is impossible before you start, then why do it? Why would anyone enter any career where they have to “plan for the worst” outcome? Having realistic goals is one thing but “planning for the worst”????
It’s one thing to have entered into an RJ job years ago when it was viewed as a stepping stone – experience building position which will make pilots competitive for a good flying job where they can establish a long-term career.
If I pilot accepts that job now, knowing it’s where he’s going to finish, I really have to question his judgment.

I’ll bet that most young “wannabes” still hold that glimmer of hope when they accept that RJ job. They still think “not me” - “I’ll be here a few years and pay my dues, then I’ll get a better job”. “I’ll be the one to win the lottery”. Some will, if they have the right contacts, the right timing, etc. Most won’t. If they really BELIEVED in their gut that this was the final stop in their career, I think many would think twice. Unfortunately, even if they do think twice, many have made their bed already. They’ve paid boo-coo dollars to some college with an aviation program or some pilot factory promising a great career. Now they have big debt, pilot ratings w/ no experience and the only thing they feel like they can do is enter “the matrix”, plug in and hope things get better someday. It ain’t lookin’ real good for that any time soon.

So, the key is to reach them at this guy’s age – while they’re still in high school and haven’t decided. Really educate them about the reality before they commit to an expensive education path that’s going to lead them to a point where they feel they have no choice and have to continue because they’ve spent so much buying their ratings, etc.

It’s not going to be any easier for him to get a fighter pilot job or any flying position in the military for that matter – but at least he won’t go into debt pursuing it. If he really wants to be a fighter pilot, he shouldn’t limit himself to the Guard. He needs to look at all avenues – active duty USAF, Navy, Marines. Either he wants it or he doesn’t. There are not many fighter pilots on the planet who have pursued that dream with caveats like “I’m only going to be a fighter pilot if I can be in my home state, near my family and my dream airline hub”.
^^^^ Well.... I know plenty of those in garden variety locales like Ellington, Knob Noster, Syracuse and Nellis. Nobody questioned their past or present commitment to the mish either, bro check and all....just sayin'.

As to the rest of your post, SHACK. This kid would be better served by having these flawed assumptions of his "plan" debunked now than buying his own hindsight at the tune of 5 or 6 figs of debt to chase a non-existing statistical career expectation. Nevermind the wake-up call when he hits the interview lanes with your garden variety Guard fighter unit in an already pilot-saturated economy. Heck, as a Reservist I'm more worried about where I'm going to fall flat on my backside in 30 years I can't even remember my boldface. Forget flying fighters, that's just putting the cart before the horse. And we ALL used to sound like this kid if it tells you anything!

Militant "Aim High" allusions are for Disney Movies, and outright foolishness when there is no carrot to chase anymore. I'd fly a buck fifty with rocket pods for a living if it paid GS-12/13 with the bonus and had me home before the gardener got to the wife...I digress..
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Old 09-08-2009, 09:04 AM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
^^^^ Well.... I know plenty of those in garden variety locales like Ellington, Knob Noster, Syracuse and Nellis. Nobody questioned their past or present commitment to the mish either, bro check and all....just sayin'.
I think you misunderstood my point. I'm not questioning commitment to mission. All I'm saying is there's a lot more fighter pilots (even military pilots in general) who made it through UPT w/ no specific unit/aircraft/location in their future. To narrow your plan before you even go to UPT to one specific unit is certainly doable via the ANG but you've just reduced your chances of actually achieving that goal my a huge magnitude. That's all I was saying.
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Old 09-08-2009, 09:07 AM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Kasserine06 View Post
I actually believe it is easier for FlyHigh to get into the Air Force than a major.


I think I'll have to beg to differ on that. As a guess, I'd say the chances are similar. There is timing involved with entry into the USAF as a pilot, too. They are not always "hiring". Sometimes they need a lot of pilots, sometimes they don't. There's also a difference between setting your goal to become a pilot in the USAF and setting your goal to become a fighter pilot in the ANG of a specific state.

If he sets his goal a bit more broadly, he may not end up in OH flying a fighter but he may end up with pilot wings on his chest in the USAF. However, realizing that goal is certainly no easier than attempting to get hired by a major airline. The window of opportunity for entering the training pipeline of the USAF is SIGNIFICANTLY smaller than applying to a major. Once you have the quals for a major, you can apply until you die. The USAF will take you from college graduation (say ~22 years old) until age 30. So, you've got 8 years to make it happen. Once you're in UPT, you've got to graduate. 50% of my class washed out. I'm sure that statistic varies but I doubt it gets lower than 25-30%.

I'm no statistician but I would hazard a guess that the selection process, medical requirements, small window of opportunity, needs of the military and extremely demanding curriculum of military pilot training would all combine to make the realization of a position as a USAF pilot no easier than getting on with a major. He just won't go into debt and waste a significant portion of his life chasing the USAF dream. He'll either make it or he won't and he won't slow leak his life hoping to achieve a dream job that for many has become a nightmare anyway.
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Old 09-08-2009, 09:42 AM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Adlerdriver View Post
I'm no statistician but I would hazard a guess that the selection process, medical requirements, small window of opportunity, needs of the military and extremely demanding curriculum of military pilot training would all combine to make the realization of a position as a USAF pilot no easier than getting on with a major. He just won't go into debt and waste a significant portion of his life chasing the USAF dream. He'll either make it or he won't and he won't slow leak his life hoping to achieve a dream job that for many has become a nightmare anyway.
I agree that FlyHigh should not limit himself to one type of military flying in one particular guard unit, but I still think it is easier to get into the AF than the military. I am not saying that it I easy though. You are right, there is a small window to apply, they aren’t always hiring, the medical standards are strict, and training is tough, but you still have more control trying to get in the AF than an airline.

You are right, sometimes there are not a lot of pilot slots offered, but I have been following pilot slots for three years now, and the AF has had some every year and can’t say that for the majors. And you are also right that the selection and training is much more rigorous than the airlines, but that is something you can prepare for. It is no mystery what it takes to get a pilot slot. You need good grades, good attitude, and sometimes even a little flying experience. As long as you spend you high school and college years working hard, there is a good chance of getting in. And then once you’re at UPT, continue to work hard and it will pay off.

That is not the case for the airlines. You can spend your high school years getting your ratings and your college years building your time, but if the hiring minimums change when you graduate, then there is little you can do, but find a time building job and wait. The airlines don’t care about your GPA, or if you flight instructor thinks you were the best student they ever had. All they want to see is 3000 turbine time, and then they might talk to you. My friend who was a year ahead of me had poor grades and just over 230 hours, but got hired at a regional because of pure luck and timing. Just one year later, I applied with over twice the time and GPA, and they wouldn’t even look at me because I did not meet their new minimums.

That being said, the AF is no cakewalk. I have prepared my entire life for it and I have spent the last two years jumping through hoops after I got my pilot slot just to go to OTS. However, I feel like I have had more control of my AF career than I have had in my civilian ones.
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Old 09-08-2009, 09:44 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by Adlerdriver View Post
There are not many fighter pilots on the planet who have pursued that dream with caveats like “I’m only going to be a fighter pilot if I can be in my home state, near my family and my dream airline hub”.
Ha ha, I know this dude who grew up in Huntington Beach. His career path was USMC hornets at El Toro (twice) then UAL at SNA/LAX. Never left home except for OCS, Pipeline, and the odd deployment. But it doesn't happen that way very often.
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Old 09-08-2009, 12:00 PM
  #17  
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seeing as the guard is going to lose another 250 - 300 fighters in the next 4 years with no replacement in the future (Air Force Magazine) and we are now training more UAV pilots than fighter/bomber pilots this year, I'd take a long hard look at the future of manned combat aviation. I cried when they cut the F-22 at 187, and I think 2250 F-35's is a pipe dream in todays budget world. Now I hear they are looking into unmanned tankers, not sure if this transition is going to end, but good luck on the plan, sounds like a good one if you can make it happen.
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Old 09-09-2009, 08:38 PM
  #18  
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I may be a half-full kind of guy, but at least this kid did some research. I mean, he knows about mil-leave and seniority.

That said, your priorities are [messed] up: 1. XJT 2. your boyfriend 3. your puppy named muffins 4. USAF .....

ain't gonna hack it.
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Old 09-09-2009, 09:36 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by UPTme View Post
I may be a half-full kind of guy, but at least this kid did some research. I mean, he knows about mil-leave and seniority.

That said, your priorities are [] up: 1. XJT 2. your boyfriend 3. your puppy named muffins 4. USAF .....

ain't gonna hack it.
Awesome .. haha
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Old 09-10-2009, 02:03 AM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by Adlerdriver View Post
Once you're in UPT, you've got to graduate. 50% of my class washed out. I'm sure that statistic varies but I doubt it gets lower than 25-30%.
That's probably a valid "total attrition" number over time, but that's not the washout percentage by a longshot. About 10 years ago the washout rate was something like 14%, and I have to guess it's even lower now. Your number probably includes all the SIEs, med-disquals (airsickness), etc.

Here are some citations showing those statistics:

- A 1996 paper by Thomas R. Carretta which considers the validity of the AFOQT, shows that of 14,403 officers who attended UPT between 1981 and 1995, "88.3% of the pilot trainees successfully completed UPT." (meaning an 11.7% washout rate)

- "Over the last several years, UPT attrition rates have been steady at about 22%." (Source: "Group Differences on US Air Force Pilot Selection Tests", Thomas R. Carretta, 1997)

- A report which was looking at the impact of T-3/IFT showed that initial classes going though UPT after the cancallation of the T-3 program (1998 time frame) saw an increase in attrition from 6% to 19%. (Source: "The pre-Pilots Fly Again", Air Force Magazine, June 1999 Vol. 82, No. 6)

- The "US Air Force Pilot Selection and Training Methods" study by Coretta in 1999 said that the washout rate from T-37s alone during the two data periods they used was between 7.8% and 8.8%.

- "Approximately 15-20% of Undergraduate Pilot Training (UPT) students are eliminated each year." (Source: United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM) website)

- FY 88 UPT attrition was 37% (Source: "Air Force Pilot Selection Assessments", Tina Strickland, Air Force Personnel Operations Agency, 2 Nov 04)

- "The academy has a 50-percent lower attrition rate for pilot training than Reserve Officer Training Corps or Officer Training School. During the moratorium, attrition rates at UPT jumped to more than 20 percent at some bases." (Source: 'The Officer' Magazine Sept, 2001 by Jennifer Brugman)

- "Without the benefit of T-3 flight screening, attrition rates for SUPT climbed above 15 percent. The Air Force considers an 8 to 10 percent attrition rate acceptable." (Source: "AF replaces T-3 flying program", Air Force News Service, 13 Oct 1999)

- "General Welser said the Air Force's goal with the expanded IFT was to maintain an acceptable attrition rate. "Over the period of time we've been doing IFT vs. the T-3, we're finding the attrition rates within 1 percent of each other," he said. "7.8 percent for the T-3 and 8.8 percent for IFT." (Source: "AF replaces T-3 flying program", Air Force News Service, 13 Oct 1999)
The current UPT focus is on more selective picking of guys to go to UPT to minimize the waste of washing out so many candidates.
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