Yes, sarcasm.

Not one word of it was sarcasm.

The USAF has been planned into a manned aircraft pilot shortage for a while. The personnel guys were already spouting the math a couple of years ago. It has already begun to hit the RTU's in the fighter world.

My son is currently in F-16 RTU. I talk to my old friends out there all the time.

The big "IF" is how many F-35's is the USAF going to buy. With the current numbers, there is almost no way they can produce enough pilots.

The fighter pilot pipeline has become so small that the community cannot produce enough pilots to fill all it positions (AETC, rated staff, RPA, etc). This has impacted AMC where for example the mobility community is readily used to fill AETC IP slots and ACC staff positions. Where AMC sqdns used to be manned at 110% plus we are now held to 100% and the prior excess is used to fill prior ACC allocations. Can only give my opinion on the "why" or "how" we got here but it's where we are today. It's now the norm in AMC to see pilots do 2-3 ops to ops assignments. The AMC pipeline has the ability to produce bigger/excess numbers to make up for the shortfall on fighter side. Interesting times ahead.

Now that I read this again, I will say that my use of the word "cleverly" was entirely sarcastic. Otherwise my post was as factual and sober as I could make it.

The story I've heard is that when the money started drying up they "cleverly" (read stoopidly) cut the training force well out of proportion to the line force. The result is that we cannot train enough pilots to fill the needed force structure. Why? Dunno. I can confirm that the RTU syllabus is cut to the bone in an attempt to shorten the pipeline. Most instructors leaving Luke right now are getting F-16 flying assignments.

Also, the UAV world now has it's own pilot training so they will no longer be boning young Lt's straight out of UPT.

If you have a UPT assignment it is a good time to have it.

No problem. Just cut a whole bunch of frontline combat proven jets.

A-10, B-1 Vertical Cuts On the Table

Then when the JSF production line is cut waaaay short you are good to go. Probably have the same AD end strength, so without all those pesky pilots and jets the shoe clerks should finally get some much needed peace and quiet.

A buddy convinced me to go fighters after reminding me that when I was growing up I never said, "When I grow up I wanna be an AWACS pilot."

This said, in 2013 I'd go Guard. Just be advised that that VIP transport mission could change to RPAs or lose airframes altogether at any moment. Talk to the guys at Barksdale, Ft Smith, etc.

Still leaves the problem of training the required number of F-35 pilots since the F-35 was going to replace A-10's anyway.

If the F-35 buy is cut way short all bets are off.

I'm just saying that the current math is already dictating that all current and qualified fighter pilots are staying in the cockpit.

As always, there is no way to predict the future of USAF rated personel assignments, even 2-3 years. That's the way it's always been.

They're going to transport VIPs in RPAs?

We're not short fighter pilots. We're fat on hours and fighters. That will change with the current budget cuts. I think you'll see continued belt tightening next year too. The ground pounders won't be happy until the Air Force is just the Force.

Considering how big of a disaster the F-35 program has been, and our trainwreck of an economy... I'm guessing we'll end up with around 300-400 total F-35s in the USAF, so about a 2:1 ratio to the F-22. The 1700+ we're "supposed" to get? Yeah, right.