USMCFLYR

On the logic, I completely agree, BUT China has thumbed their nose at the "West" many times and gotten away with it. Witness 1989 Tianaman Squre, the value of the RMB, SEA waters, UNSC vetoes or refusals to sanction Iran and Iraq. They're bulletproof in many ways.

The question is: do they believe the West (US, really) really isolate China, if it stood behind NK? So far, we haven't. Now, nuclear war is another thing. The overall aftermath of 9/11 was pretty harsh in many ways. Nuking a city, US or ROK would be an entirely new level of disaster.

China for the last 20 years has put a figurative gun to the Western economies. Look at the Titan Tire plant in France. New owners comes in, says, "give me this for union contract or it's off to China". The Chinese need to expand and provide for its population has driven many a Western business to the wall.

GF

 

I stand by my position. In addition, their "one child per family" policy will play into this.

China is not going to war (combat war) with anyone. Will they hack the crap out of a country's computer networks and clone their military technology ? yes. will they put soldiers on the ground and engage combat or drop missiles ?

No.

Will China "take credit" for de-escalating tensions with NK? Sure. And that's fine. Like I said, the result is the same.

 

Exactly my point. China will still throw its new found weight around - they are a global power no doubt.
WAR between the west and NK is a whole different scale.
I believe that China wants to play on the world stage now. They know that they need to play by the world's rules when talking about something SO drastic. They are *bending* to world standards more and more as time moves on and they see the benefit of being in the good graces of global economics.

 

I read somewhere recently that China accounts for about 70% of NKs foreign trade business, where as NK barely provides 1% of China's. Economically, I don't see how losing ties with NK would harm China in the least, and the Chinese probably feel the same way.

Agreed. Being a global economic power now, China will not risk losing that status by taking up arms against the ROK/US and its allies.

I do agree with previous statements that China would not want to deal with having an American ally directly on its border, and that the NK refugees would almost certainly go north into China.

The North Korean army is indeed quite massive, but being malnourished, poorly trained, and poorly equipped, they won't last long. They do have a LOT of missiles and a LOT of boots on the ground. Not much for a Navy or Air Force. They would quickly lose control of the air and sea above and around their country.

 

Food for thought: Wouldn't a unified Korea negate the need for U.S. troops on the peninsula entirely? Regardless, I think it's less about having the U.S. at the doorstep vs. masses of refugees. I doubt the ROK is salivating over reunification either. They see Germany, 20 years on, still struggling with the effects of reunification. Lots of people invested in the status quo.