I know it's a silly thing to ask, but I am curious what others think.

My current plan is to retire from AF in Jan. I really enjoy what I'm doing but have no desire to take another assignment. Anyway, I've been asked (very nicely, no guilt trips) if I'd like to stay on at least another six months. Probably longer if I wanted. In the grand world of trying for an airline job, anyone see a difference between availability in Jan vs June?

From a military point of view, it's another checkride, another PT test, more ADLS--minor queep I was happy being done with but not that big a deal.

Appreciate any thoughts/feedback you guys might have.

Thanks

 

Short answer...no. While it would be great to get a call from an airline this winter, the odds will be very slim. The airlines will just be spinning up hiring and the initial calls will go to those with friends in very high places and then to those with friends in high places. Got any of those? United, although "hiring" now, they really aren't. Those pilots have already been notified and few guys scored big time but the real hiring is starting this winter. Delta, sure in 2014, but they too will take months to really spin up and work through their required regional hiring. FedEx and SWA forget about.
If you retire and you don't get a call you'll wish you had stayed the 6 months. Its a crap shoot. But really we're talking about double digit seniority numbers lost, not triple digits!
Save your leave, tell the airlines spring availability.
Good luck!

 

I am retiring next year and shooting for May availability. F15andMD11 makes some great points based on my limited research the past few months. For those of us with 20 years or less left to fly (mid forties), we also have to consider how a future airline employer will impact our earning capability and lifestyle since captain upgrade could be less than 5 years (at a start up that pays less) to well over 10 years at a larger employer (pays better and has multiple aircraft types which we may never have seniority to fly). Do we take the first job that comes along and stick with it, wait for the right job, or move around until we get the one we want. Time is not on our side. Waiting for or eventually moving over to the cargo side (UPS/FedEx) seems to pay better over just about any other choice (depending upon upgrade it pays about 750K more over an 18 year career). Lots of moving parts and seems like we can't plan on anyone calling until close to or past our availability date. Hopefully that might change with the higher numbers being predicted but as always no promises. For now I am playing the game...applying, updating, networking, getting letters of recommendations, and planning to attend the fairs this summer/fall.

My biggest fear is getting tagged with a 365 or 179 deployment--knock on wood I can survive the next 6 months and then be ready to interview if/when the time comes.

I've got a total earnings excel spreadsheet for a cross section of airlines that looks at an 18 year career with upgrades between 3 and 12 years if anyone wants to PM me. Happy to share.

 

This is why I left active duty as soon as I could when the airlines were hiring. I didn't want to take a gamble of being removed from military flying (flying a desk or UAV), retiring without civilian jobs available, or worse getting to 14-16 years and being forced to leave the military without civilian jobs available and being too old/high of rank for most Guard/Reserve positions.

Spreadsheets are fine and dandy. However, there's so many variables that go into how much you're going to make and they're probably as accurate as blindly throwing darts at a dart board. I've seen guys make the bare minimum at company XYZ and know FOs who made 400 large.

Timing is simply everything in this career. Getting seniority as fast as you can makes life so so so much easier ... either total seniority or in base/aircraft seniority.

 

Yes Darts are probably just as reliable (haha) but there were a few take aways from some simple analysis to help guide/shape some of my upcoming decisions.

The lower paying majors will pay about 2 million if I can upgrade in under 5 years--the big benefit might be that I get the seniority to pick my schedule for well over half my 18 year career if the company grows/stays in business.

The big majors will pay about 3 million with surprisingly small difference between NB and WB (roughly 200-300k over career with 10-11 year upgrade)--I assume I won't have seniority to make biggest airframe and I will go through two long rounds of low seniority as an FO and Capt and my best years for schedule may only be 3-5 years as a senior FO and my final years as a Captain.

UPS/Fedex will pay close to 4 million even with late upgrade--strong reason to make this your end state if you can take the night schedule.

SWA was the most interesting--even if I don't upgrade until past 12 years, I would still make the same or more than smaller WB at Delta/United.

Again--these are over an 18 year career and include only advertised 401 matching and/or B/C funds. No per diem or other pay was included. No inflation, profit sharing, or fund growth is factored in. It is simply based on current pay scales and normalized at 70 hours except for airlines that require more (e.g. SWA is 78 on this website). Tried to make it apples with apples.

Welcome your spears to help refine my thinking. For now I am just hoping to make the lottery and get an interview next year.

 

Saw a lot of the same calculations in the late 90s as well. If they were printed out, they could be used as toilet paper.

As a AF retired guy who was lucky enough to get that 121 call while still on terminal leave, here are some things I've learned.

Seniority is everything in this biz. Period. It's not how good you fly, or what you fly, or where you fly----it's who got there first. Add a multiplier for this in all of your calculations because you will be cognizant of your seniority number in everything you do.

Relative seniority in your base drives a large part of your quality of life. Your schedule will mean a whole lot more than bidding max block hour lines for most of you retirees out there.

You are meat in the seat for any of these companies. It's not meant to be negative but be aware of all of that in your dealings with the company.

Plan your life around min guarantee. In the short time I've been on the 121 side, I've spoken with some folks who've made epically bad financial decisions based on overtime or planned upgrade.

Finally, this biz is absolutely brutal on personal relationships. Make sure your significant other is as committed to this change as you are.

Good luck all....

 

400k?

In my case, I'm past 20, 6 ish months ADSC, actively flying. So I'm not too worried about 179 or 365.

 

Some very good advice on this topic with regard to seniority. IT IS EVERYTHING. Notice the fur fight over at LUAL-LCAL right now? From an outsider looking in, it may seem trivial or obtuse, but for every pilot in that mix, including myself, it is about quality of life, bidding, pay, everything. I say again SENIORITY IS EVERYTHING. So how does that pertain to you? Unless you've got some odd dream of making General, if you are retirement eligible, I'd give some real serious thought to dropping those papers. There is nothing worse than someone who is deployed, AFPC won't budge on min notification time, etc. and you see class after class beginning without you sitting in it. Every one of those folks will be senior to you until....forever. I know it's daunting to disengage from the military teat...but even if the dream job doesn't roll down on terminal leave, you'll have the availability to take the first class available as you're sitting in a regional seat gaining some great experience. The chance to jump into a great flying job is rapidly approaching. Do not be the one looking through the glass as it occurs. As was said earlier, you are just meat in the seat. Do not forge loyalty. They have none towards you. Remember that and you'll do just fine.

 

Fred, I completely understand what you're saying, while I don't live it (yet hopefully) I 100% get that seniority is everything. That said, is hiring more likely in Jan or June? I really do enjoy what I'm doing, another 6 months of it would be fun. I'm essentially in a non-deployable billet and could 7 day opt if that status changed.

I'm honestly not sure I could stomach the regional world. It makes sense but I'm not sure I could do that. It's not arrogance--I don't think the majors are lining up to hire me. But if I can't get to a major I'd probably find something outside aviation.

 

Take Fred, Heavy and Fat Boy's words to heart. Six months was the difference between me keeping a line and all of my buds in my reserve unit from my company being furloughed. This story repeats itself throughout history and into the future on a never ending loop with only the names changing. I'm sympathetic you like your job, but the hiring is beginning. If you think you want to wait until more are hiring, it definitely improves your chances of going right from a government paycheck to airline paycheck, but seniority is everything in the airlines.

The reserves aren't an option for you, so you'll need a flying job to fall back on for currency in case a major doesn't hire you right away.