Pilot shortage fallacy & separating vs retire
#91
I wasn't insinuating clicking my heels would change DLs mickey mouse training compensation package or Southwest's "grab a muffin" intl turn ops. Of course I'm not gonna go tell them that at the interview, and I don't need to pay a premium for a g-d interview prep to remind me of the common sense behind that either.
However, I do think the "I'm just happy to have this job" can be dangerous and an insidiously concessionary attitude to have if allowed to permeate, as we turn over the seniority lists in the next decade. I'm not saying go get the picket signs as a probie, but a little bit of skepticism for the conditions and the tone management wishes to set with the HR panel, would yield a healthier and more leveraged cohort of co-workers going forward.
The fact I have a job I'm not in a rush to quit just allows me the luxury to behave that way, and I sincerely consider that attitude to be in the betterment of the profession. Having a bunch of starving regional guys elbowing each other for a dilution of conditions because at least they now finally taste living wage working conditions, is a great demographic for management to cheerlead, but not the kind of peer group I want to have sit next to me when it comes to negotiating my worth and that of those who come up behind me.
My father was right. I should have taken his advice, stayed out of union work and gone to dental school. But I got that proletariat fight in me, damn DNA you can't shake it
#92
I highly doubt that DAL/AA/UAL/SWA/FDX/UPS will ever pay for a training. If it ever does come down to ab-initio hiring (god I hope it doesn't), the candidate will pay for it. This is what jetBlue's program looks like and how it works in many parts of Europe. Or you might see the majors fund the training, but the candidate will sign a contract to fly for a wholly owned regional for 5 years and the company will deduct the cost from their paycheck until it is paid in full. If one quits, they will owe the entire amount plus 18% interest or something. This will be an additional revenue stream for the company. Kind of like how a car dealer makes most of its money off of financing.
Additionally, in five to ten years, there will still be lots of talent available at regionals, LCC's and from the military. With the recent uptick in salaries, young adults will again start flocking to the career like in the 90's, it just takes time.
#93
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2005
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#95
#96
Rog. I was referring back to the statement from hindsight that the airlines don't pay for hotels and that training pay sucks. Cheers...
#97
Was there an "insert agenda here" sign on this thread?
#98
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 381
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For those USN folks looking to retire, we have recently heard that typical retirement waivers such as Time in Grade and Retirement at Lesser Grade are being disapproved. I would also expect that requests for retirements that are "mid-tour" to also be disapproved. Anyone that is retiring can expect retirement orders 3-6 months from retirement date. This means your approved retirement orders may not actually drop until INSIDE your terminal leave date.
This is gouge and hear-say from folks that heard it from someone that may have attended a meeting or teleconference from somebody that may have heard of BUPERS during a conversation at one point in time and in no way shape or form is gospel.
This is gouge and hear-say from folks that heard it from someone that may have attended a meeting or teleconference from somebody that may have heard of BUPERS during a conversation at one point in time and in no way shape or form is gospel.
#99
There won't be a lot more student start-ups when the pay goes up because:
The 1% keep sucking up all the money, so the average family income keeps falling further and further behind the cost of flight training. Unless they switch to all-electric training aircraft, the cost of flight training is out of reach for most.
And, even 10 years ago, you could get a bank loan for flight training. Now, because the banks we bailed out don't want to lend us our money, you cannot get a bank loan for training, for the most part.
Couple this with the rise of video games, and other alternative activities, and the fact the millennials aren't as interested as we were in working very long hours, and the training pipeline is very dry.
Also, a HUGE consideration is where to train? Many of the seats in current flight schools are taken up by foreign students who are cadets for their airlines. When I was at Grand Forks, UND was basically all US students. A DAL training capt told me they are now 95% Chinese students...that is one example. Those students take up a training slot, can't be trained to be flight instructors in their own schools, and won't fly for a US carrier.
Also, I DO think the majors will be doing something similar to what UAL used to do: Hire kids out of HS and train them to fly.
The 1% keep sucking up all the money, so the average family income keeps falling further and further behind the cost of flight training. Unless they switch to all-electric training aircraft, the cost of flight training is out of reach for most.
And, even 10 years ago, you could get a bank loan for flight training. Now, because the banks we bailed out don't want to lend us our money, you cannot get a bank loan for training, for the most part.
Couple this with the rise of video games, and other alternative activities, and the fact the millennials aren't as interested as we were in working very long hours, and the training pipeline is very dry.
Also, a HUGE consideration is where to train? Many of the seats in current flight schools are taken up by foreign students who are cadets for their airlines. When I was at Grand Forks, UND was basically all US students. A DAL training capt told me they are now 95% Chinese students...that is one example. Those students take up a training slot, can't be trained to be flight instructors in their own schools, and won't fly for a US carrier.
Also, I DO think the majors will be doing something similar to what UAL used to do: Hire kids out of HS and train them to fly.
I knew UA captains back in the seventies--they took in fewer than 100 of ab initio pilots and it didn't work then. The requirement was to get a 4-year degree and CPL on their own, then UA brought them on board. Well, you can't do that anymore due to the ATP rule. They are, and will be, plenty of pilots for the majors. The regionals? Not so much, so good-bye to them.
I think the famous Rick Dubinsky of UA ESOP fame was one of those guys. Could be wrong, stand to be corrected.
GF
#100
For those USN folks looking to retire, we have recently heard that typical retirement waivers such as Time in Grade and Retirement at Lesser Grade are being disapproved. I would also expect that requests for retirements that are "mid-tour" to also be disapproved. Anyone that is retiring can expect retirement orders 3-6 months from retirement date. This means your approved retirement orders may not actually drop until INSIDE your terminal leave date.
This is gouge and hear-say from folks that heard it from someone that may have attended a meeting or teleconference from somebody that may have heard of BUPERS during a conversation at one point in time and in no way shape or form is gospel.
This is gouge and hear-say from folks that heard it from someone that may have attended a meeting or teleconference from somebody that may have heard of BUPERS during a conversation at one point in time and in no way shape or form is gospel.
So if you are in the Navy, and are going to separate or retire, for your own protection, play by the letter of BUPERS guidelines on sending in your letter. Yes, you may get knocked on your Fitrep, get pulled from your job, or a few other unpleasantries for being a "quitter". Sad, but true. You can survive it. Your departure Fitrep from AD will be read by any Reserve Board as the normal AD sour grapes for somebody pulling chocks. Got one of those. Your retirement request can illicit similar antics, but who cares what they write about you when you leave. Have one of those too. The prime directive is if you are leaving have your act together and plan in place. Neither your Skipper nor the Bureau may be on your side, and in fact may be under pressure from their boss to meet manning or crew goals. So you need to read and understand the rules, and not listen to ready room gouge on what LT Door did last year. Call separations and retirements in the Bureau and ask questions, not your detailer until you are ready to share your plans. You don't need to be a "stand up guy", you just need to play by the letter of the Instruction. Then go live the rest of your life. And don't be shocked when your old Skipper, DH's, and friends reach out to you for help on transitioning.
Got a Lot of those calls and emails.
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