Pilot shortage fallacy & separating vs retire
#82
Each and every one of my AGR bros has had to provide an availability date 4-6 months into the future contingent on the Command approving your AGR curtailment. 4 months being the current turn-around rate for such paperwork without the need for a waiver. None of them have been hassled by it. I don't see the issue frankly. Sure, stuff happens, you can get denied, people can get stop-lossed.
I understand it's slightly different for regAF dudes without a revolving window of curtailment, but in the Reserve side we aren't lying when we project dates of availability without a cemented DOS. If that's a problem, so be it. I'm not "preemptively quitting" my living wage job to wait by the phone for an offer from an employer that doesn't give me the damn courtesy of timely training dates or even pays/houses me commensurately during training in the first place. I'm not that desperate and by my calculations, this thing gets worse for the airlines as time ticks by. In two years the mere utterance of this topic will be laughable. But hey, to each their own. The places that recognize value in military applicants will behave accordingly, the "tier 1 employers" will continue to act befuddled going forward.
I understand it's slightly different for regAF dudes without a revolving window of curtailment, but in the Reserve side we aren't lying when we project dates of availability without a cemented DOS. If that's a problem, so be it. I'm not "preemptively quitting" my living wage job to wait by the phone for an offer from an employer that doesn't give me the damn courtesy of timely training dates or even pays/houses me commensurately during training in the first place. I'm not that desperate and by my calculations, this thing gets worse for the airlines as time ticks by. In two years the mere utterance of this topic will be laughable. But hey, to each their own. The places that recognize value in military applicants will behave accordingly, the "tier 1 employers" will continue to act befuddled going forward.
#83
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 309
Likes: 1
From: A320 CA
Just for general consumption, I was recently approved an AGR curtailment. If you are curtailing with less than one year remaining, it's WG/CC approval which should be a quick turnaround...unless something changed since I put in my paperwork in Dec 2015.
#84
If I had a nickel for every left seater I've flown with who failed to get their mil retirement....
It's really a gamble but think too of how much that 20 year AD retirement is worth. You're talking a couple million dollars if you live til you're 80 not counting medical benefits.
Tough call, but then again I started at a major 3+ years ago while on terminal leave. But seriously, every CA I've flown with who didn't get an AD or Guard/Reserve retirement regrets it....to a man.
It's really a gamble but think too of how much that 20 year AD retirement is worth. You're talking a couple million dollars if you live til you're 80 not counting medical benefits.
Tough call, but then again I started at a major 3+ years ago while on terminal leave. But seriously, every CA I've flown with who didn't get an AD or Guard/Reserve retirement regrets it....to a man.
Had many captains say to me "had I stayed and just done xxx more years, I'd have been done xxx with the reserves xxx years ago...."
Every single person is different. The military is a mess a right now. I get that. What Hilltopper is passing on is simply the same thing I hear, even at a company that is doing well.
#85
I'm not "preemptively quitting" my living wage job to wait by the phone for an offer from an employer that doesn't give me the damn courtesy of timely training dates or even pays/houses me commensurately during training in the first place. I'm not that desperate and by my calculations, this thing gets worse for the airlines as time ticks by. In two years the mere utterance of this topic will be laughable. But hey, to each their own. The places that recognize value in military applicants will behave accordingly, the "tier 1 employers" will continue to act befuddled going forward.
I’m not sure waiting for airlines to start coordinating training dates with a DOS and paying for your housing during initial training is going to get you a seniority date any time real soon. Maybe this round of hiring and the current industry dynamics regarding pilot availability/qualifications will eventually drive them to that, but personally I wouldn’t hold my breath. Are you willing to give up years of seniority waiting/hoping for that to happen so you can have a little better first year pay and free housing for 3-months of indoc? Tick-tock goes the seniority clock.
Military pilots are desirable, but most airlines recognize the value of a good mix of civilian and mil. I think you might be overestimating the value of the average military applicant. I don’t think an attitude that seems to reflect the idea that an airline owes you the “courtesy” of anything is going to serve you very well going forward. There are a sh!t ton of highly qualified civilians already in the industry competing for the same jobs. An expectation that top tier airlines are going to start tailoring their pay structure and training practices to bring in military pilots is probably not realistic. Most airlines you want to work for are represented by a union with a contract. The company doesn’t have the option to just decide to start paying new hires more money or provide housing during training. Those things get negotiated and agreed on by both sides which doesn’t just happen whenever someone feels the need to change things up.
You’re not desperate – good. I don’t think I would advise anyone looking to transition to the airlines to make a “clean break”. Things look rosy now and hopefully they’ll stay that way. But the days of 4-6 years of active duty flying and a clean break into an airline career are long gone. Throwing 12-14 years of active duty service away to simplify the first third to a quarter of an airline career is pretty short sighted, IMO. One way or another, getting some kind of military retirement should be very high on most guys’ priority list.
There are some square pegs in the airline hiring process and some round holes in the military retention/separation process. It sounds like you’re already in the reserves, so it would seem like setting an availability date would involve a lot less risk than some guy trying to transition off active duty. The bottom line is, sooner or later you’re going to need to decide if you want the job or not which typically involves a little risk for military guys.
#87
Banned
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 492
Likes: 0
I'm not "preemptively quitting" my living wage job to wait by the phone for an offer from an employer that doesn't give me the damn courtesy of timely training dates or even pays/houses me commensurately during training in the first place.
Great post, there is no pilot shortage
Great post, there is no pilot shortage
#88
China Visa Applicant
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,964
Likes: 16
From: Midfield downwind
Nobody is saying you have to preemptively quit in order to get hired, but the game is the game. Fair or unfair, the things you're b*tching about are part of the game you're trying to play. In this case, two shops, FedEx and Delta, are saying they want a rock-solid availability date, and has effectively penalized guys who were trying to speed on that date.
My point in my previous post was that I wasn't willing to play the burn-the-candle-at-both-ends game, balancing establishing and moving around a separation date to try and capture an airline class date. I saw squadronmates losing years off their lives trying to work that one out, and I just didn't want the hassle of it. Now we see that trying to play the separation date game has resulted in CJOs being effectively revoked, or guys not being offered CJOs in the first place.
Proceed as you like once you're armed with this information. Remember, it is you that is wanting to join the game -- it isn't trying to join you.
#89
I’m not sure waiting for airlines to start coordinating training dates with a DOS and paying for your housing during initial training is going to get you a seniority date any time real soon. Maybe this round of hiring and the current industry dynamics regarding pilot availability/qualifications will eventually drive them to that, but personally I wouldn’t hold my breath. Are you willing to give up years of seniority waiting/hoping for that to happen so you can have a little better first year pay and free housing for 3-months of indoc? Tick-tock goes the seniority clock.
Military pilots are desirable, but most airlines recognize the value of a good mix of civilian and mil. I think you might be overestimating the value of the average military applicant. I don’t think an attitude that seems to reflect the idea that an airline owes you the “courtesy” of anything is going to serve you very well going forward. There are a sh!t ton of highly qualified civilians already in the industry competing for the same jobs. An expectation that top tier airlines are going to start tailoring their pay structure and training practices to bring in military pilots is probably not realistic. Most airlines you want to work for are represented by a union with a contract. The company doesn’t have the option to just decide to start paying new hires more money or provide housing during training. Those things get negotiated and agreed on by both sides which doesn’t just happen whenever someone feels the need to change things up.
You’re not desperate – good. I don’t think I would advise anyone looking to transition to the airlines to make a “clean break”. Things look rosy now and hopefully they’ll stay that way. But the days of 4-6 years of active duty flying and a clean break into an airline career are long gone. Throwing 12-14 years of active duty service away to simplify the first third to a quarter of an airline career is pretty short sighted, IMO. One way or another, getting some kind of military retirement should be very high on most guys’ priority list.
There are some square pegs in the airline hiring process and some round holes in the military retention/separation process. It sounds like you’re already in the reserves, so it would seem like setting an availability date would involve a lot less risk than some guy trying to transition off active duty. The bottom line is, sooner or later you’re going to need to decide if you want the job or not which typically involves a little risk for military guys.
Military pilots are desirable, but most airlines recognize the value of a good mix of civilian and mil. I think you might be overestimating the value of the average military applicant. I don’t think an attitude that seems to reflect the idea that an airline owes you the “courtesy” of anything is going to serve you very well going forward. There are a sh!t ton of highly qualified civilians already in the industry competing for the same jobs. An expectation that top tier airlines are going to start tailoring their pay structure and training practices to bring in military pilots is probably not realistic. Most airlines you want to work for are represented by a union with a contract. The company doesn’t have the option to just decide to start paying new hires more money or provide housing during training. Those things get negotiated and agreed on by both sides which doesn’t just happen whenever someone feels the need to change things up.
You’re not desperate – good. I don’t think I would advise anyone looking to transition to the airlines to make a “clean break”. Things look rosy now and hopefully they’ll stay that way. But the days of 4-6 years of active duty flying and a clean break into an airline career are long gone. Throwing 12-14 years of active duty service away to simplify the first third to a quarter of an airline career is pretty short sighted, IMO. One way or another, getting some kind of military retirement should be very high on most guys’ priority list.
There are some square pegs in the airline hiring process and some round holes in the military retention/separation process. It sounds like you’re already in the reserves, so it would seem like setting an availability date would involve a lot less risk than some guy trying to transition off active duty. The bottom line is, sooner or later you’re going to need to decide if you want the job or not which typically involves a little risk for military guys.
Roj copy. The scope of my comment dealt with reserves only.My only point was that I had three bros in my sq get hired by DL in the last 18 months who were all AGRs at the time, and all went into the interview without a DOS. It wasn't an issue for them and none of them had to preemptively quit to interview, which was the genesis of my comment.
I think you guys might have me confused. I'm not a regAF guy. I'm a civ/mil hybrid, always have been, CFI/I, and an aircraft owner. The speech about overvaluing the position of military qualification or the accusation that I have a sense of entitlement by virtue of being military, was gratuitous. I hold no such views about my mil membership. But I am not illiterate when it comes to civilian professional aviation.
#90
There is a pilot shortage, but it won't get REALLY bad until 3-5 years from now. That is when DAL/UAL/AA will probably be forced to pay for training, just like the military does now.
Delta doesn't pay hotels in training, but i'm sure they will when their hiring situation becomes more critical.
And, current max BASE pay is for residing in China, and coming in as a Direct Entry Captain...$30,000 per year. They will get a lot more desperate in the future: An AA pilot, who knows more about China flying than me, estimated that they would be forced to pay upwards of $600K/year for experienced captains...
Delta doesn't pay hotels in training, but i'm sure they will when their hiring situation becomes more critical.
And, current max BASE pay is for residing in China, and coming in as a Direct Entry Captain...$30,000 per year. They will get a lot more desperate in the future: An AA pilot, who knows more about China flying than me, estimated that they would be forced to pay upwards of $600K/year for experienced captains...
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