Global benchmark Brent crude has jumped 25% to around $88 a barrel since the end of November. Some in the market now think it’s now a question of when -- not if -- oil hits triple digits, somewhere it hasn’t been since 2014.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week it sees prices reaching $100 in the third quarter as consumption surprises to the upside. The cost of $100 call options for Brent’s December contract also surged to a record on Wednesday.

Crude at that level would add to the already considerable inflationary pressure in the global economy, causing a headache for central banks and governments. It’s certainly not a fait accompli, however. U.S. shale is coming back and has the potential to restrain the rally, while all eyes are on China to see if omicron can breach Covid-19 defenses that have so far proved mostly impenetrable.

Here’s a closer look at how oil got here and where it’s likely to go next:

Demand Marches Onward

Oil has now more than recovered from the discovery of omicron in late November, which revived memories of delta and sent Brent tumbling below $70 a barrel. The relative mildness of the variant, high vaccination rates in much of the developed world, and a general reluctance to impose harsh lockdowns meant that a major hit to consumption didn’t happen.

Demand is roaring, with spot market cargoes being snapped up at sharply higher premiums. It’s the same in the product space. Middle-distillate stockpiles at the Asian energy hub of Singapore have fallen to the least since 2013. The world is short of diesel, and even jet fuel -- the oil product hit hardest by the pandemic -- is coming back strong as long-distance air travel starts to resume.