This info is a little dated, but it’s what I used trying to determine my career. When the last pilot age info was released, in approximately the next three years roughly 20% of NJ pilots (I believe 2400 pilots were on the list at that point) will be at or above age 65. In the next 7 years it will be roughly 1200. This is the youngest pilot being age 65. We currently have pilots 80 years old on the list. So in the next few years we will have pilots retiring, losing medicals, or simply going beyond the average life expectancy. This also doesn’t take into account any growth, which there seems to be a good bit of at the moment. Given the average pilot age, growth, and getting through the furloughed upgrade list I would think upgrade time should come down significantly and finally get to the “organic” movement they seem to be shooting for.

This job isn’t for everyone and I still question going to the majors. It is working harder for overall less money. I personally measure everything against commuting and does it suck worse, however that’s due to my family situation. Someone else, maybe not. I don’t think there’s a wrong decision as I believe, at least based on today’s situation, either career will be a good one. It’s more what works for you.

Timing is everything in aviation. Unfortunately, we can't really see what is going to mess things up in the future. I was hired thinking I'd upgrade in a couple of years. I was very wrong. At least those who are hired this time around will have a pilot group that has has the vast majority 15+ years older than the last big push. While there is no mandatory retirement age here, pilots have actually been able to save quite a bit while they aged and will be able to afford retirement. I'd guess that well over 1000 will retire or medical out over the next decade. If I were young, I'd still probably go to a major unless I had something in my life that forced me into a hideous commute. At least this time around the likelihood of reasonably fast upgrades is much higher than last even without massive growth.

Some of the older pilots take advantage of NJA's fairly generous Medical Leave. You get 3 years total. The first 6 months are a % of your salary, the remaining 2.5 yrs is capped at $60K/yr. You continue to receive full benefits during the 3 years, including the awesome medical. Also, the Union sponsors a LOM plan via Harvey Watt although benefits are very limited once you hit the upper 60's/early 70's. Most pilots 70+ can come up with a reason to medically retire and coast for 3 years. And in my case I went out at age 60.5 and will be drawing from the LOM plan until age 68.5. So a number of pilots won't even make it to 70 before having to bail.

I got lucky on the hiring lottery. I was hired in March 2005 and made Captain in 2.5 years. With the rapid growth right now I can see upgrade times coming way down, assuming the economy doesn't tank.

And in 2015 lol.

The reality is, the entire industry is unpredictable, but NJA is even more so in terms of upgrades and career progression.

Not really. The wait has been a long time for some pilots to upgrade… but ask TWA, US Air and Pan Am pilots how long they waited to upgrade at some points of their careers through various mergers and downturns.

20 years was nothing for those airlines; waiting as Second Officers…. First Officers.

How long did they keep their upgrade at those airlines before being downgraded back to FO? It happens so often at some airlines that their Union sought to get language in the contact to allow downgraded Captains the ability to wear three stripe epaulets with four stripe jackets.

Unpredictable? What’s unpredictable is how long a pilot has actually stayed a captain at the airlines once finally upgrading. NetJets Captains stay NetJets Captains.

No downgrades. Ever.

What’s predictable is the continued downward spiral 121 continues along as a regressive track since the destabilization of Deregulation.

Captains didn't get downgraded at NJA, but NJA furloughed the highest percentage of pilots out of anyone, including the airlines in 2008. Let's not pretend that NJA is invincible.

Everyone that was hired in 2015 was promised mass growth and a huge reduction of upgrade times. Fast forward to 2022 (just about) and upgrade times are still sitting about thee 10 year mark. The few from my new hire class that stayed, are still looking at anther 2-3 years to upgrade. It is what it is but I absolutely remember hearing the same song and dance about how "now is the time" and "you are in front of the wave" etc etc. Major airlines don't pull that stuff.

You speak about an airline industry that doesn't exist anymore. Will the industry see downgrades and furloughs during rough times? Probably, but a "continued downward spiral" of the airline industry isn't happening, no matter how much the furloughed airline pilots of yesteryear who found themselves at NJA want it to happen. '

NJA is a great place for the right person, but the need to crap on the airline industry to justify NJA is silly.

I don't remember anyone talking about massive growth in 2015. The country was still getting back on its feet from the recession.

During the 2008 downturn what almost killed NJA was owners using their jets as ATM's. They were cashing in their fractional shares to cover stock market losses and NJA was obligated to buy them because of the contract. As contracts were renewed that was fixed after the recovery so it won't happen again. Normally NJA is more recession proof than the airlines are. Thurston and Lovey don't want to give up their private jet.

NJA is a great place for over 2500 pilots.

500 more next year…. Just not you.

Cool story lol.

I was hired in 2015 and left in 2017, couldn't be happier with the move. But I wish NJA the best and I wan't people who want to be at NJA for a career, to get hired.