Pilot Shortage?
06-10-2015, 05:23 PM
#11
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 27
There is a pilot shortage of sorts, and can be witnessed by the appearance of 'mo money or 'retention bonus's' that are starting to be seen in the 135 world. Money talks, and it would not be getting better were it not for folks running/walking to greener pastures, and a lack of replacements showing up at the front door.
If you are currently near the bottom of the pilot food chain, and have not personally witnessed this, then you need to look around harder.
If you are currently near the bottom of the pilot food chain, and have not personally witnessed this, then you need to look around harder.
06-10-2015, 06:06 PM
#12
Disinterested Third Party
Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,026
There is no pilot shortage.
That poor employers struggle to find employees does not equate to a pilot shortage. It's representative of substandard employers. When an employer is having to offer paltry incentives to entice inexperienced workers, that's not a lack of workers. Just a lack of workers willing to work for the meager pay and conditions offered.
There is not a shortage of pilots.
That poor employers struggle to find employees does not equate to a pilot shortage. It's representative of substandard employers. When an employer is having to offer paltry incentives to entice inexperienced workers, that's not a lack of workers. Just a lack of workers willing to work for the meager pay and conditions offered.
There is not a shortage of pilots.
06-10-2015, 07:19 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2009
Position: Airbus 319/320 Captain
Posts: 880
Originally Posted by JohnBurke
There is no pilot shortage.
That poor employers struggle to find employees does not equate to a pilot shortage. It's representative of substandard employers. When an employer is having to offer paltry incentives to entice inexperienced workers, that's not a lack of workers. Just a lack of workers willing to work for the meager pay and conditions offered.
There is not a shortage of pilots.
That poor employers struggle to find employees does not equate to a pilot shortage. It's representative of substandard employers. When an employer is having to offer paltry incentives to entice inexperienced workers, that's not a lack of workers. Just a lack of workers willing to work for the meager pay and conditions offered.
There is not a shortage of pilots.
06-10-2015, 08:52 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 178
Originally Posted by JohnBurke
There is no pilot shortage.
That poor employers struggle to find employees does not equate to a pilot shortage. It's representative of substandard employers. When an employer is having to offer paltry incentives to entice inexperienced workers, that's not a lack of workers. Just a lack of workers willing to work for the meager pay and conditions offered.
There is not a shortage of pilots.
That poor employers struggle to find employees does not equate to a pilot shortage. It's representative of substandard employers. When an employer is having to offer paltry incentives to entice inexperienced workers, that's not a lack of workers. Just a lack of workers willing to work for the meager pay and conditions offered.
There is not a shortage of pilots.
That can only mean there are thousands of pilots not working simply because they won't take the low pay.
06-10-2015, 10:10 PM
#15
Disinterested Third Party
Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,026
Originally Posted by brianb
That being said, all the major aircraft manufacturers disagree with you and so does most of Asia.
Have you worked in Asia? I have.
Asia is expanding, not experiencing a pilot shortage. There are plenty of Chinese graudates, for example, to fill seats. Most of them are worthless. I know. I've dealt with enough of them. The Chinese philosophy for study involves cheating, cheat sheets, waiting until the last moment to study, and generally very poor performance. Overall, throughout Asia, expat pilots are hired not because there aren't numbers of asians to fill the seats, but the quality and performance of western pilots far exceeds what the Chinese, Koreans, and others are able or willing to put out. The Chinese sign massive quantities of students to 99 year contracts, regardless of whether they're used as pilots, and as a result have a massive army of indentured servants, most of whom failed out of their pilot positions despite every effort to accept the lowest common denominator.
There's no pilot shortage in Asia. There's a shortage of Asians who make the grade. There's still no pilot shortage.
Originally Posted by Kritchlow
Yeah... Most regionals are desperate, and even some majors are concerned.
That can only mean there are thousands of pilots not working simply because they won't take the low pay.
That can only mean there are thousands of pilots not working simply because they won't take the low pay.
The regionals are the poor employers. They pay squat, and qualified, experienced pilots don't choose to go there, except in times of furlough. They're entry level jobs. There are plenty of pilots who could fill those seats. The numbers willing to do so for that price point, not so much. That does not equate to a pilot shortage.
06-11-2015, 04:25 AM
#16
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: CEO Hauler
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by Unusual Att
I think too many people fail to understand the new ATP rule isn't a rule at all...it's a law. There is a pretty big difference bewteen the Safe Skies Act and your average run of the mill FAR. To reverse, repeal or amend the Safe Skies Act will literally take an act of Congress. That doesn't mean such a thing isn't possible but what it does mean is that the majority of the Senate and the House have to put their names on an amendment/repeal bill that I assure you will be blamed the first time an RJ crashes post legislation. That's a big political gamble for very little payoff for these politicians.
Bringing back the "wet commercial" into a 121 cockpit is highly unlikely in my opinion. The only large organization with any financial teeth on any level even lobbying for it is the RAA. The legacies aren't touching it as they don't want to be associated with any bill that would "reduce safety". The only sector of US aviation that really will be hurt is the Regionals insofar as maintaining their current business models. If they change, treat and pay pilot's what they are worth, adapt to smaller margins then they will live on. If they don't then they die and that's the way capitalism works. The legacies, the LCC's and the discount fare carriers are all filling classes no problem.
I certainly may be wrong. Though I just have a feeling no Congressman/woman or Senator with any real seriousness is going to put their political careers in jeopardy to save the bank accounts of the "Bryan Bedfords" of the world.
A lot of things will have to happen to take the teeth out of the SSA and I just don't see it occurring.
Bringing back the "wet commercial" into a 121 cockpit is highly unlikely in my opinion. The only large organization with any financial teeth on any level even lobbying for it is the RAA. The legacies aren't touching it as they don't want to be associated with any bill that would "reduce safety". The only sector of US aviation that really will be hurt is the Regionals insofar as maintaining their current business models. If they change, treat and pay pilot's what they are worth, adapt to smaller margins then they will live on. If they don't then they die and that's the way capitalism works. The legacies, the LCC's and the discount fare carriers are all filling classes no problem.
I certainly may be wrong. Though I just have a feeling no Congressman/woman or Senator with any real seriousness is going to put their political careers in jeopardy to save the bank accounts of the "Bryan Bedfords" of the world.
A lot of things will have to happen to take the teeth out of the SSA and I just don't see it occurring.
06-11-2015, 04:55 AM
#17
Mishap Pilot
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Posts: 72
Originally Posted by JohnBurke
There are no shortages in the major airlines. There are thousands of applicants for every position that opens up.
Last edited by scottm; 06-11-2015 at 05:09 AM.
06-11-2015, 05:29 AM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: B757 Ca, Retired.
Posts: 195
It's truly a numbers game, the market for pilots has been internationalized and the CEO's of American and Delta have seen the trend already. Yes there are thousands of pilots applying for each open position. It's the same 6-10 thousand that apply for every one of the positions that open up every month. With Delta, United and American alone hiring 300 every month just to cover retirements. It won't take long to go through the qualified and hire-able bodies.
With several dozen Delta guys retiring early to fly offshore every quarter, Delta had to stop that bleeding, that is clearly part of their quick conclusion to this last round of contract negotiations.
Out of that 6-10k applicants, 50% will not survive the process because of something in their backgrounds, or interviews or sim checks/written exams or that you just can't let them walk through the terminal's because they will scare your passengers and it will disqualify them.
Be a pessimist if you want, but numbers don't lie. BTW, when I applied for Army pilot training in 1980, there were 600 applicants for every available slot, today the number is closer to 3-4. I know about long odds, and not a single one of the pessimists pilots I net along the way ever got past crappy flying jobs, yet at age 28, I was on the seniority list at Northwest.
Only you can control your resume and background, keep improving it and stay positive, give each job 100% and your career will be in your control.
With several dozen Delta guys retiring early to fly offshore every quarter, Delta had to stop that bleeding, that is clearly part of their quick conclusion to this last round of contract negotiations.
Out of that 6-10k applicants, 50% will not survive the process because of something in their backgrounds, or interviews or sim checks/written exams or that you just can't let them walk through the terminal's because they will scare your passengers and it will disqualify them.
Be a pessimist if you want, but numbers don't lie. BTW, when I applied for Army pilot training in 1980, there were 600 applicants for every available slot, today the number is closer to 3-4. I know about long odds, and not a single one of the pessimists pilots I net along the way ever got past crappy flying jobs, yet at age 28, I was on the seniority list at Northwest.
Only you can control your resume and background, keep improving it and stay positive, give each job 100% and your career will be in your control.
06-11-2015, 07:12 AM
#19
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 43
Originally Posted by JohnBurke
Aircraft manufacturers? They're not hiring pilots. Think.
Have you worked in Asia? I have.
Asia is expanding, not experiencing a pilot shortage. There are plenty of Chinese graudates, for example, to fill seats. Most of them are worthless. I know. I've dealt with enough of them. The Chinese philosophy for study involves cheating, cheat sheets, waiting until the last moment to study, and generally very poor performance. Overall, throughout Asia, expat pilots are hired not because there aren't numbers of asians to fill the seats, but the quality and performance of western pilots far exceeds what the Chinese, Koreans, and others are able or willing to put out. The Chinese sign massive quantities of students to 99 year contracts, regardless of whether they're used as pilots, and as a result have a massive army of indentured servants, most of whom failed out of their pilot positions despite every effort to accept the lowest common denominator.
There's no pilot shortage in Asia. There's a shortage of Asians who make the grade. There's still no pilot shortage.
There are no shortages in the major airlines. There are thousands of applicants for every position that opens up.
The regionals are the poor employers. They pay squat, and qualified, experienced pilots don't choose to go there, except in times of furlough. They're entry level jobs. There are plenty of pilots who could fill those seats. The numbers willing to do so for that price point, not so much. That does not equate to a pilot shortage.
Have you worked in Asia? I have.
Asia is expanding, not experiencing a pilot shortage. There are plenty of Chinese graudates, for example, to fill seats. Most of them are worthless. I know. I've dealt with enough of them. The Chinese philosophy for study involves cheating, cheat sheets, waiting until the last moment to study, and generally very poor performance. Overall, throughout Asia, expat pilots are hired not because there aren't numbers of asians to fill the seats, but the quality and performance of western pilots far exceeds what the Chinese, Koreans, and others are able or willing to put out. The Chinese sign massive quantities of students to 99 year contracts, regardless of whether they're used as pilots, and as a result have a massive army of indentured servants, most of whom failed out of their pilot positions despite every effort to accept the lowest common denominator.
There's no pilot shortage in Asia. There's a shortage of Asians who make the grade. There's still no pilot shortage.
There are no shortages in the major airlines. There are thousands of applicants for every position that opens up.
The regionals are the poor employers. They pay squat, and qualified, experienced pilots don't choose to go there, except in times of furlough. They're entry level jobs. There are plenty of pilots who could fill those seats. The numbers willing to do so for that price point, not so much. That does not equate to a pilot shortage.
Here's what one needs to ask themselves:
- What would the first indicator be that we were actually in a pilot shortage? The bottom feeder operators not being able to fill classes is the big one that comes to my mind.
- How many ATP holders are currently sitting out the industry in a non-flying or even non-aviation job? I'm not sure the numbers there are that substantial. And out of those former pilots how many are willing to walk away from, in many cases, far more lucrative positions that gets them home every night with their families? I'd venture to guess not many.
- Is there a large enough "reserve" pilot force in the expats that can make up for the lack of qualified and or willing ATP applicants stateside? Frankly I don't think anyone has even remotely accurate numbers to really assess this thus this factor is the great unknown. But I have to ask myself how many of those expats really like what they do abroad and like their payscales. It's wise to understand that many of those guys and gals enjoy living and working in a foreign country and have even moved their families there. So coming home to take what would likely be a fairly significant pay cut to work at a legacy carrier or top tier fractional or even a hihgly coveted part 91 gig isn't really a given at all.Certainly many will and are coming home to domestic jobs but just like the pool of leftover CFI's and piston box flyers that only have enough experience to work for a regional that pool is finite.
There are a lot of factors at play here that don't get talked about a lot.
For instance the numbers of legacy retirements is somewhere around 20,000 by 2025. Those numbers aren't considering retirements from the regional carriers or the fractionals. Now the fractionals are the big unknown because there is no mandatory retirement age, however a lot of those guys are as old as granite and are going to be voluntarily retiring soon.
We also must consider the numbers of flight students currently in the training pipeline. No secret there - its dismal. The big flight schools are hopping but they are hopping with foreign students getting cheap training that won't work here when they finish up. The number of Americans training for a professional pilot career is so low currently its almost non-existent. That brings the dependency on job vacancies back to non flying ATP holders and expats.
So is there a pilot shortage today? No
Will there be one tomorrow? To say there be won't is obtuse and to say there will be is just a guess. Remember, it all comes crashing down if the economy tanks or we see another 911 styled terror attack on western interests. Both events a matter of when not if.
My conclusion is that the jury is still out.
06-11-2015, 09:07 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2009
Position: Left seat of a Jet
Posts: 514
Originally Posted by Unusual Att
I think too many people fail to understand the new ATP rule isn't a rule at all...it's a law. There is a pretty big difference bewteen the Safe Skies Act and your average run of the mill FAR. To reverse, repeal or amend the Safe Skies Act will literally take an act of Congress. That doesn't mean such a thing isn't possible but what it does mean is that the majority of the Senate and the House have to put their names on an amendment/repeal bill that I assure you will be blamed the first time an RJ crashes post legislation. That's a big political gamble for very little payoff for these politicians.
Bringing back the "wet commercial" into a 121 cockpit is highly unlikely in my opinion. The only large organization with any financial teeth on any level even lobbying for it is the RAA. The legacies aren't touching it as they don't want to be associated with any bill that would "reduce safety". The only sector of US aviation that really will be hurt is the Regionals insofar as maintaining their current business models. If they change, treat and pay pilot's what they are worth, adapt to smaller margins then they will live on. If they don't then they die and that's the way capitalism works. The legacies, the LCC's and the discount fare carriers are all filling classes no problem.
I certainly may be wrong. Though I just have a feeling no Congressman/woman or Senator with any real seriousness is going to put their political careers in jeopardy to save the bank accounts of the "Bryan Bedfords" of the world.
A lot of things will have to happen to take the teeth out of the SSA and I just don't see it occurring.
Bringing back the "wet commercial" into a 121 cockpit is highly unlikely in my opinion. The only large organization with any financial teeth on any level even lobbying for it is the RAA. The legacies aren't touching it as they don't want to be associated with any bill that would "reduce safety". The only sector of US aviation that really will be hurt is the Regionals insofar as maintaining their current business models. If they change, treat and pay pilot's what they are worth, adapt to smaller margins then they will live on. If they don't then they die and that's the way capitalism works. The legacies, the LCC's and the discount fare carriers are all filling classes no problem.
I certainly may be wrong. Though I just have a feeling no Congressman/woman or Senator with any real seriousness is going to put their political careers in jeopardy to save the bank accounts of the "Bryan Bedfords" of the world.
A lot of things will have to happen to take the teeth out of the SSA and I just don't see it occurring.
The reason you become an investor is because of the financial rewards; without those investors all you have is incompetent government agencies. Any person with half a brain looks at America's infrastructures and say what a dump. no one wants to invest money into a losing operation in which the US government is always hopeful they can con enough suckers to take the bait. When you create a law or laws in which cost more money and bring little returns good luck finding a sucker to invest in such an operation.
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