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Old 04-06-2019, 08:42 AM   #81  
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Originally Posted by ekollat View Post
Is there any base that has reserve less than a year? And how long?
It's a dynamic situation. Right now? maybe. A year from now, who knows. PSA is transitioning from a period of exponential growth to linear growth. Past performance is perhaps your worst predictor of future behavior.

I think it is unlikely that there will be much variation in bases going forward. You could have ABC base with 4 months of reserve and XYZ with 8 months and the bidding system didn't really give people an opportunity to respond. If those number are now 10 months and ABC and 14 months at XYZ ... people can see and plan for that and poach it. You're unlikely to see an outlier junior base.
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Old 04-06-2019, 09:57 AM   #82  
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Originally Posted by stillcantfly View Post
Never mind canít fixed the brainwashed.
Itís reality though, itís a cost thing. Itís cheaper to run crew/mix base in an outstation unfortunately. Hangars are cheaper, no need for hotels.
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Old 04-06-2019, 11:08 AM   #83  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeroTT View Post
It's a dynamic situation. Right now? maybe. A year from now, who knows. PSA is transitioning from a period of exponential growth to linear growth. Past performance is perhaps your worst predictor of future behavior.

I think it is unlikely that there will be much variation in bases going forward. You could have ABC base with 4 months of reserve and XYZ with 8 months and the bidding system didn't really give people an opportunity to respond. If those number are now 10 months and ABC and 14 months at XYZ ... people can see and plan for that and poach it. You're unlikely to see an outlier junior base.
With the R1 bid package published today reserve seems like it is going to increase a substantial amount.
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Old 04-06-2019, 01:05 PM   #84  
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Originally Posted by ekollat View Post
Is there any base that has reserve less than a year? And how long?

I think all of them except CLT will give you a build up line if not a regular line in under a year.
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Old 04-06-2019, 01:10 PM   #85  
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Hereís last monthís data. https://imgur.com/gallery/iaxXQ7r
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Old 04-06-2019, 01:43 PM   #86  
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Originally Posted by Chunk View Post
I think all of them except CLT will give you a build up line if not a regular line in under a year.
While not impossible, my guess is highly unlikely. Reserve has been increasing every month. March data to April data shows that reserve increased by an average of 2 weeks for FOs for all bases. A year ago reserve time was about half of what it is now. My guess is itís going to be quite awhile before it starts trending in the other direction.

If the current trend holds steady a new hire today could expect to hold a R1 line in just under 2 years. I donít think itís going to be quite that long since weíre still getting a few more airplanes and attrition will likely increase. But Iíd be very surprised if average reserve time is under 14 months for someone starting today.
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Old 04-10-2019, 04:45 AM   #87  
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Default CA reserve time

What is the expected reserve time for a captain with 3 years on property ?
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Old 04-10-2019, 05:01 AM   #88  
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Originally Posted by Hawk739 View Post
What is the expected reserve time for a captain with 3 years on property ?
Currently that would hold a line in multiple bases.
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