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Originally Posted by TallFlyer
(Post 1768986)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyDingus And free hotel until your RLD RLD? (Ten char) |
Any one with a Dayton crash pad contact please PM me. Thanks!
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Originally Posted by Chrisw
(Post 1764821)
To merge there would need to be a financial benefit to the company. There is none. It would cost more money not less. It will never happen.
The main reason to keep them separate is for whip-sawing and that can be done with RAH, Skywest and other third-party airlines. Parker has ridden USAirways in and out of bankruptcy twice. He can do it a third time if he likes, but it may cost him his job. The big question about the new American Airlines is, in five years, will it look more like United Airlines or Delta Airlines? Parker is trying very hard to complete the merger at mainline. If you were correct about the advantages of keeping the regionals split, then why wouldn't that apply to mainline too? The fact is, it doesn't. Streamlining the airline is the most cost efficient way to go, to a point. Whipsawing works, but only to a point. |
Romulus got it as always. Why not whipsaw mainline, split domestic and international separate companies and whipsaw them to start, because financially it is a nightmare. Same logic domestically for owned regionals. AMR had 16 years peace with eagle and streamlined operations, everything else that is stated cannot be proved, because the financials of the real eagle are private and not public.
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Originally Posted by Romulus
(Post 1769288)
Three management systems, three maintenance systems and three training systems are cheaper than one? Disagreed.
The main reason to keep them separate is for whip-sawing and that can be done with RAH, Skywest and other third-party airlines. Parker has ridden USAirways in and out of bankruptcy twice. He can do it a third time if he likes, but it may cost him his job. The big question about the new American Airlines is, in five years, will it look more like United Airlines or Delta Airlines? Parker is trying very hard to complete the merger at mainline. If you were correct about the advantages of keeping the regionals split, then why wouldn't that apply to mainline too? The fact is, it doesn't. Streamlining the airline is the most cost efficient way to go, to a point. Whipsawing works, but only to a point. I think that separate lists is lower cost over the long term. They could offer a seat lock type clause but considering none of the pilots at any of the three really want a merger it would be tough to get unions to agree to such a thing. As for the whipsawing, well I think they know that if they were to merge the fear of whipsaw can't be used against us. If we were a 3000-4000 pilot list with nobody in house competing I think they know there would be a push for pay raises as pilot hiring problems ensued. They way it is now they can continue to hold the fear of whipsaw above our head. You may be correct but in my opinion costs are lower by having us separate. Time will tell. Or perhaps I should stick to flying and not trying to analyze the big picture. |
Originally Posted by Chrisw
(Post 1769364)
You make good points, however I disagree. The cost they avoid is in pilot training. In theory this is why probationary pay exists in the first place is that it is very expensive to train pilots. If we had different aircraft we could bid to different seats and different aircraft and theoretically be in school several times a year. Movement happens at the regional level much faster than at major airlines. Also training an RJ pilot is pretty much the same as training a boeing/ airbus pilot, but the RJ pilot training is a bigger slice of the pie. If it costs 30k to train one pilot on an RJ and 30k to train one on a boeing the RJ only represents revenue of 50-76 seats whereas the mainline trainee represents hundreds of seats worth of revenue. Margins being tight it is a much higher percentage of the cost to operate. More pilots in training increases the need for even more pilots on the list also increasing costs. As for the maintenance costs you mentioned I feel it would be minimal since there are different resources available for each aircraft type so I feel a merger would not alleviate much of this cost. Your point about management teams is a solid one and one you didn't mention also is potential savings of a consolidated operations team.
I think that separate lists is lower cost over the long term. They could offer a seat lock type clause but considering none of the pilots at any of the three really want a merger it would be tough to get unions to agree to such a thing. As for the whipsawing, well I think they know that if they were to merge the fear of whipsaw can't be used against us. If we were a 3000-4000 pilot list with nobody in house competing I think they know there would be a push for pay raises as pilot hiring problems ensued. They way it is now they can continue to hold the fear of whipsaw above our head. You may be correct but in my opinion costs are lower by having us separate. Time will tell. Or perhaps I should stick to flying and not trying to analyze the big picture. I predict by the end of this decade regional flying will account for 65% of all domestic US flying. We shouldn't really even be called "regional" anymore, I like the name "contract carrier" better. |
Originally Posted by tom11011
(Post 1769370)
One thing to add as an opposing viewpoint, a very large consolidated regional might have more leverage in dealing with the company. Imagine a strike or other job action at such a company would be crippling to the parent airline. In fact, I hypothesize, for example American Airlines, if PSA, Piedmont and Envoy were to be consolidated together and a strike were to occur at such a consolidated carrier, American Airlines themselves might even have to consider shutting down or flying their airplanes substantially lighter.
I predict by the end of this decade regional flying will account for 65% of all domestic US flying. We shouldn't really even be called "regional" anymore, I like the name "contract carrier" better. |
There are just so many factors, it is hard to give an educated guess. 9/11 and the 2008 recession proved that any forecasting about the airline industry is about as scientific as a fortune cookie.
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Originally Posted by CBreezy
(Post 1769380)
I predict it will account for 40%.
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Originally Posted by tom11011
(Post 1769395)
You are gambling pilots at the big 3 will not sell more scope. That's what it all really boils down to.
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