AZFlyer

Flow + Attrition means that the reality for your time to flow is better than what the bar room napkin math says it is when you only go off the assumption of every single person ahead of you waiting for their time to flow.

Trouble is, there is no way to accurately predict the number of people ahead of you who will leave the company for whatever reason prior to their number being called to flow. All you can take from that is that your actual time to flow will be to some degree better than the straight math on the above mentioned assumption.

And you're right, the flow most certainly is a recruiting tool, with the difference being that only the 3 AA regionals have a true no interview flow to a mainline carrier. Why wouldn't you advertise that? The flow is currently working as advertised. Every month we are sending people to AA.

If literally every single person ahead of me takes the flow and we don't grow at all (and we don't experience another 9/11 or economic collapse), I've got 4 more years till I flow, and I've been here just over 1 year. So, ~5 years to go from regional to mainline is historically pretty quick. There are thousands of guys in the regionals today who have spent decades there. So, I have no complaint about waiting 5 years, especially in light of the improvements in pay at the WO's. And the reality is that I really have less than 4 years to go because of non-flow attrition combined with strong growth well right now. And in the meantime I'll still be applying off the street for UA, DL, AA, FX, etc. If they don't call me, I've still got the flow.

So, 4 years in total to get to mainline? Not too shabby at all. But, the longer you wait to get in line, the longer you'll be in it.

Md5drivr

Okay that explanation with the anticipated seniority over X time for bidding and assignments helps out. I can see that. But again there is NEVER a guarantee like you said.

I'd rather have $1000 bucks in a couple days, then $5 bucks in an hour.

Md5drivr

Makes sense. Thank you. Morale of the story, stay WO

send a check

The flow matters to me because I don't want to volunteer, go to job fairs, pay for interview preps or resume services and update my app every month.

Here is my interview.

Interviewer: "So were have you volunteered Mr. candidate."

Me: "Are you serious?? 3 kids, an ex wife, girlfriend, house to not lose on FO pay and 11 days off a month but you want me volunteering!!! Are you high on HR kool-aid???".

Interviewer: "NEXT"

But hey nothing is stopping anyone from going to job fairs, volunteering, updating your resume and interview preps and maybe getting a great job at somewhere besides AA......maybe. If I wasn't so bitter that's what I would do

Md5drivr

I can get that side of it. But I feel like you're putting a lot of faith in one option in an industry that fluxes so much from year to year. I'd much rather have my choice. But life happens.....

EFBprobs

Go to the regional that gives you the best quality of life and stability. Don't choose a regional for a flow alone.

Md5drivr

Agreed. Commutability is my biggy unfortunately NWFL is a booger....

word302

If you think that trend will continue, you don't understand 2nd grade math very well.

billyho

You realize you're in the airline industry right? If you wanted guarantees then you should've found another profession.

billyho

I might not after the 10 year contract is up. But I willing to bet that many at the WO's will be in as good or better positions then many other regionals.