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-   -   Pilot Shortage: Real or Nah? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/122810-pilot-shortage-real-nah.html)

Cujo665 07-11-2019 02:45 PM


Originally Posted by TimetoClimb (Post 2850355)
As much as I'd like this to be true, classes at most the regionals are full and backlogged. It's financially justifiable nowadays to pursue it and I think there is enough desperation in the american system nowadays it drives people to take on huge risk, which the airline career is. Many of my coworkers are millennials. They are showing up in suffcient numbers but perhaps not as much as in prior generations. Still, filling the ranks is a drop in the bucket. I think 135 and the bottom barrel 121 are the only ones feeling the pinch. Will that change? Anyone's guess. The regional hiring mania of 2014-2018 has seemed to cool off.

Classes are full, but the airlines aren’t growing. The sucking sound from the top is still in many cases almost more than they can hire.

Cujo665 07-11-2019 02:46 PM


Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 2850358)
No pilot shortage, but lots of movement. Some good observations, and theories, but what anyone has failed to mention is the effect of the economy going forward. One big economic downturn and all those retirements will be matched by downsizing of the industry, and pilot hiring will slow.

Absolutely is a shortage. It’s still a pay shortage. In a few more years it becomes a physical shortage.

DarkSideMoon 07-11-2019 02:55 PM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2851692)
Absolutely is a shortage. It’s still a pay shortage. In a few more years it becomes a physical shortage.

I made 92,000 my first year. What pay shortage?

SoFloFlyer 07-11-2019 05:14 PM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2851698)
I made 92,000 my first year. What pay shortage?

Must fly for EDV.

DarkSideMoon 07-11-2019 05:18 PM


Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer (Post 2851784)
Must fly for EDV.

Nope. Different regional.

Tyrion 07-11-2019 05:34 PM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2851698)
I made 92,000 my first year. What pay shortage?

How much of that was new hire bonus? Regional life these days causes this weird phenomenon where 2nd year pay is way less than 1st year pay.

DarkSideMoon 07-11-2019 05:47 PM


Originally Posted by Tyrion (Post 2851793)
How much of that was new hire bonus? Regional life these days causes this weird phenomenon where 2nd year pay is way less than 1st year pay.

Something like 26k.

Looking at roughly 82k my second year.

SoFloFlyer 07-11-2019 07:32 PM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2851804)
Something like 26k.

Looking at roughly 82k my second year.

Air Wis or TSA then lol

Cujo665 07-12-2019 07:24 AM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2851804)
Something like 26k.

Looking at roughly 82k my second year.

This is why people are returning to the profession. Not all regionals have increased their pay appropriately, and they're still having trouble filling seats fast enough to replace what they lose each month. The Quality of life still hasn't improved and many bail their first year. Several still run bonus payments that leave them making less their second year than as a new hire, while the rest have finally changed the actual step pay rates.

Cujo665 07-12-2019 07:29 AM


Originally Posted by Tyrion (Post 2851793)
How much of that was new hire bonus? Regional life these days causes this weird phenomenon where 2nd year pay is way less than 1st year pay.

Exactly, without the bonus an FO is at $50 an hour with a 75 guarantee. That's $45,000 a year min guarantee. That is still too low to attract existing licensed and capable pilots back to the profession. Yes, you can fly your tail off and earn much more, but then you have no life outside of work.
Most folks I know work to live.... not live to work.


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