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-   -   Pilot Shortage: Real or Nah? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/122810-pilot-shortage-real-nah.html)

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:00 AM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2852238)
Ton of overtime, but who cares. It’s one year. I upgraded as soon as I hit 1000 PIC and now I can dial it back to a much more reasonable schedule. Even if you have kids/a family they can handle one year; most other high paid jobs will require 150% of you your first year too. Also plenty of instructing/extracurricular options that improve quality of life are now available to basically anyone off probation. Those jobs would’ve required way more experience back in the day.

If staffing were up to standard there would be zero overtime except for vacations. So, there still exists a shortage. If staffing were up to normal, your income would be your hourly x1000 at best and hourly x900 minimum guarantee.
They can’t keep the seats filled. That’s why you’re getting bonus checks and higher hourly rates. That my friend is a shortage. If there were no shortage you’d still be getting $26 an hour first year.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:01 AM


Originally Posted by rld1k (Post 2852248)
Yeah man most jobs require you to be away from your home 22-23 days a month to make 60k

Exactly....

TimetoClimb 07-14-2019 07:09 AM


Originally Posted by UNDGUY (Post 2852939)
"Interestingly what's developing is not a shortage of 1500hr pilots but rather slightly experienced 2000-4000hr pilots willing to go to ACMI or a good 135 or any pay tier lower than LCC. However, I concede that 121 regional captains will remain to be bottleneck.

Just look at the places that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow. ..that's where they are hurting. Around 5-10 percent of (undesirable)121 jobs I'd surmise."


What companies are you referring to when you say ACMI and good 135's that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow? I'm not opposed to either one if the pay is right and it's a decent company. Every place I've applied to hasn't called. 4200TT, 3 jet type ratings, current regional FO.

121- atlas, abx
135 - basically all of them are hiring and 121 PIC time is golden. Netjets, vistajet, jetsuite x . Just look at the banner ads on this site and jet careers.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:12 AM


Originally Posted by TimetoClimb (Post 2852438)
This just proves we are in a hiring wave, not an actual shortage...that by definition would require there to be inadequate replacement numbers, which remains to be seen (at skywest, republic, envoy, endeavor and psa aka 80% of the regional industry).

Wrong, if it were simply a hiring wave they’d still be paying new hires $26 an hour. There is a shortage. Hence the significant raises, bonus programs, and 200% and 300% overtime’s. 2006-2013 was a hiring wave, when regionals hired like crazy and 250 hours got you in the door... wages were stagnant. There absolutely is a shortage, initially it was pay and working conditions driven. In just a few years it will become a physical shortage, and globally it will be worse outside the US.


Originally Posted by TimetoClimb (Post 2852438)
Interestingly what's developing is not a shortage of 1500hr pilots but rather slightly experienced 2000-4000hr pilots willing to go to ACMI or a good 135 or any pay tier lower than LCC. However, I concede that 121 regional captains will remain to be bottleneck.

Just look at the places that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow. ..that's where they are hurting. Around 5-10 percent of (undesirable)121 jobs I'd surmise.

By 2023 the picture could be different but it's anyone's guess.


Precisely why several of the ACMI have increased wages well above the LCC’s. An example, Omni has the highest first year rate in the entire 121 industry at $119 per hour. First year pay is above most regional top step CA pay. The top step 767 pay is $297 an hour and is above several legacy rates on the same equipment.

One thing is for sure, it’s a great time to be a pilot.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:16 AM


Originally Posted by UNDGUY (Post 2852939)
"


What companies are you referring to when you say ACMI and good 135's that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow? I'm not opposed to either one if the pay is right and it's a decent company. Every place I've applied to hasn't called. 4200TT, 3 jet type ratings, current regional FO.

The ACMI typically prefer 1000 PIC, with the exception being the places you wouldn’t want to go to anyway.

Excargodog 07-14-2019 07:47 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852963)
The ACMI typically prefer 1000 PIC, with the exception being the places you wouldn’t want to go to anyway.

Everybody PREFERS 1000 TPIC.

Why wouldn't They?

DarkSideMoon 07-14-2019 07:50 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852954)
If staffing were up to standard there would be zero overtime except for vacations. So, there still exists a shortage. If staffing were up to normal, your income would be your hourly x1000 at best and hourly x900 minimum guarantee.
They can’t keep the seats filled. That’s why you’re getting bonus checks and higher hourly rates. That my friend is a shortage. If there were no shortage you’d still be getting $26 an hour first year.

:confused:
I’ve always said there’s a shortage. I’ve never argued that there wasn’t.

Slow2Final 07-14-2019 09:02 AM


Originally Posted by LowerLoon185 (Post 2852437)
I think retaining the perspective that a regional job is the opportunity to get paid to learn and get experience to set you up for your dream job is essential

This idea sounds like the selling point used to pay less. Regionals are held to the same 121 standard as mainline. Why would anyone consider it a learning experience? The job should be nearly the same as that of a mainline position.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 09:07 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 2852977)
Everybody PREFERS 1000 TPIC.

Why wouldn't They?

1000 PIC is not the same as 1000 TPIC. Several ACMI only list it as a 1000 PIC, unlike the legacies which list 1000 TPIC....
Several LCC’s actively recruit senior regional FOs and junior CA’s that do not have the 1000 TPIC the legacies prefer. It keeps them at the LCC to upgrade, get their hours, and then move on to a legacy before becoming an expensive senior CA. That is happening to a lesser degree now that the LCC’s pay almost as well as the legacies.

TimetoClimb 07-14-2019 09:37 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852962)
Wrong, if it were simply a hiring wave they’d still be paying new hires $26 an hour. There is a shortage. Hence the significant raises, bonus programs, and 200% and 300% overtime’s. 2006-2013 was a hiring wave, when regionals hired like crazy and 250 hours got you in the door... wages were stagnant. There absolutely is a shortage, initially it was pay and working conditions driven. In just a few years it will become a physical shortage, and globally it will be worse outside the US.




Precisely why several of the ACMI have increased wages well above the LCC’s. An example, Omni has the highest first year rate in the entire 121 industry at $119 per hour. First year pay is above most regional top step CA pay. The top step 767 pay is $297 an hour and is above several legacy rates on the same equipment.

One thing is for sure, it’s a great time to be a pilot.

I hope you're right, believe me. The wage increases have slowed down substantially so perhaps the equilibrium has been reached for the time being.


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