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-   -   Pilot Shortage: Real or Nah? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/122810-pilot-shortage-real-nah.html)

DarkSideMoon 07-17-2019 11:53 AM


Originally Posted by teamflyer (Post 2854732)
Perhaps, but it seems this profession is next up. I dont hear anything about doctors, engineers, lawyers, plumbers, mechanics being phased out...

They’re already using AI to interpret medical imaging (spoiler, it does a way better job than most humans).

https://money.cnn.com/2017/07/14/technology/business/radiology-doctors-artificial-intelligence/index.html

It’s also coming for lawyers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/lawyers-on-the-automation-chopping-block-as-ai-gets-jd/

And engineers (despite their assurances that they aren’t automating engineers away, having more efficient engineers means less of them)
https://genussolutions.com/pdf/Autom..._Solutions.pdf

Plumbers and mechanics are harder to phase out. However plumbing is moving towards much easier materials to work with (I can install my own PVC easily, I would much rather pay a plumber if I had to work with metal pipes.) Cars are also moving towards less moving parts and more modular components. Even in aviation it’s getting harder and harder to find someone willing to actually rebuild a mag vs just swapping one out.

The world and the world economy will probably look completely alien to us in 50-100 years. Big changes coming for everyone.

tomgoodman 07-17-2019 12:06 PM

Jean Harlow warned us about machines in 1933... :D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EQNQqwFK-OM

QxFacts 07-17-2019 12:19 PM


Originally Posted by LowerLoon185 (Post 2853136)
Maybe I’m reading you wrong, but are you saying that the guy in the right seat of an RJ in his first real paying flying job hauling people isn’t on a learning curve and gaining valuable experience? Or the guy to his left, having just crossed the 1000 hour 121 mark in his first captain job isn’t learning or gaining experience? I’d say both those guys should be drinking from a firehose (that’s a good thing).

Contrast that with a SWA 8-year FO that had 2500 hours of jet PIC time in the air force before he got his now 8000 hours at a major; you think the market is going to compensate those FOs the same? Again, I may be misreading you but professionals get compensated largely based on breadth of experience and history of demonstrated performance.

The 8000hr guy and the 2500hr guy both have to perform to the exact same standards and level of responsibility. If you don’t trust the 2500hr guy then he shouldn’t have been hired period.

Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

SonicFlyer 07-17-2019 03:24 PM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

Blame the unions.

msprj2 07-18-2019 04:31 AM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
The 8000hr guy and the 2500hr guy both have to perform to the exact same standards and level of responsibility. If you don’t trust the 2500hr guy then he shouldn’t have been hired period.

Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

Exactly
Let’s have two first officers. Pay them the same. Give mgt a bonus

sailingfun 07-18-2019 04:51 AM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
The 8000hr guy and the 2500hr guy both have to perform to the exact same standards and level of responsibility. If you don’t trust the 2500hr guy then he shouldn’t have been hired period.

Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

So compensation should not be tied to both experience and revenue generation? Interesting, you are going to turn the world wide systems of employment for the last 1000 years upside down!

DarkSideMoon 07-18-2019 10:53 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2855033)
So compensation should not be tied to both experience and revenue generation? Interesting, you are going to turn the world wide systems of employment for the last 1000 years upside down!

Flight time and ability past being able to pass recurrent is irrelevant. If you want to tie compensation to revenue generation they’d track how many times pilots pushed on time or got extra pax on the flight, etc. those stats aren’t really used for compensation, which means the 500 hour captain and the 5000 hour captain are functionally the same for the company.

DoSomePilotStuf 07-18-2019 11:05 AM

Compensation is tied to supply and demand. How many people are willing to do the job for less than you are?

Unionization disrupts a true free labor market, which is why once you do have enough experience to move on to a major we get significantly more. We are united and can bargain collectively. Harder to do that at the ground floor, which is basically where regional pilots are.

You can complain all you want, but the facts are the facts.

If you don’t like it you can just leave! Lol

Seriously though, you can. The reason pay has gone up at the regional level is because demand has increased and to increase supply to an appropriate level pay has to be increased. It’s about what you cost to replace, not how valuable you are.

This also brings up the point that union dues don’t bring near as much value at this level as they do at the next. Valuable, just not as valuable.

Cujo665 07-18-2019 12:05 PM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

Your value to the company is directly proportional to the revenue you create. They can't pay a guy flying a 50 seat jet the same as a guy flying a 166 seat jet. The revenue generated isn't even close. It's over 3 times the revenue on a much lower CASM.

This is the same reason major league sports players earn more than the minor league players. They play the same game, and do the same job. One just generates much more revenue.

Mjm8710 07-18-2019 01:24 PM

Well Top Gun 2 trailer is out...looks like our so called pilot shortage is about to be over after this comes out...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cVRHG6z7sN8


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