Agreed but I’m not sure they are trying to get out definitely not as much as the 30-45 age group is.

I think there has already been so much hype about a pilot shortage that there won’t actually be one. The closest we got was in the 2015-2018 timeframe when regional pay jumped significantly.

I would really like to see some supply data from the FAA that segments for the right to work in the US. There is so much training of foreigners that it seems too difficult to parse that out from the FAA data and get a good grasp of. I’ve seen at least 1 study use CFIs as a proxy, but that’s not nearly as good as actual data. There are plenty of people who never become a CFI.


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SkyWest I understand CRJ classes are now backed up till March.

At my regional, this is far from true. I can't recall any Capts., over 50 with 10+ years seniority, that was actively pursuing a major. They would be making less money for a couple of years, loose their 17 days off, and commutable trips to learn a new plane and airline. $120,000+ is a nice salary in most parts of America.

If you have a clean record as a regional captain, within the next 7 years, you will not have a problem getting to a mainline. Of course, there won't be a shortage at the majors, with upper-middle-class wages and decent QOL. We won't see the majors with empty seats in new hire classes, but we also won't see their hiring rates of the 2000s.
The regionals have adapted and made this career a more viable option. My regional new hire class had more ex-corporate pilots than CFIs, and they left for BETTER QOL... Yes at a regional.

There is a little bit of a bubble right now, and it will come crashing down soon. Those "good" regionals that you are talking about have classes filled for several months out, but are starting to lose the same number that they are hiring, or more.

The majors and cargo carriers need to hire 5000+ per year for the next 10+ years. There is a shortage of qualified pilots to fill these seats.

Look at the majors that are starting to reduce their hiring mins and holding in-house career fairs. The legacy airlines said 2 years ago that they weren't going to go to job fairs like OBAP and NGPA again, but they are back there recruiting again.

There is a shortage of good, professional, experienced, and well qualified pilots. Not every regional pilot is qualified for a legacy job. The pool of regional pilots that are qualified, however, is starting to get small pretty quickly.

Those that have no check ride failures, no DWI's, 2000TPIC, Line Check Airman, advanced university degree, and a good overall person are in very high demand right now. I have seen pilots with these qualifications go from no calls at all to three interviews at legacies/good majors in a matter of 2 weeks.

That wouldn’t take very long to eclipse at a legacy.

the issue isn’t “does a major pay more”; it’s does the regional offer enough. There’s a subset of pilots who are inclined to stay because of family, pension, location or sheer laziness. A doubling in salary not that compelling if the regional pays enough.

It isn’t even that. You see some career FOs at regionals. Or at least FOs that are quite content to wait until they are senior enough that when they upgrade - if they ever do upgrade - they will be senior captains flying the very same sorts of schedule you fly as a senior FO with the seniority to upgrade.

Don’t even think it’s fear of failing the upgrade, in most cases, just that after months and sometimes years of reserve, they never want to be on reserve or commute ever again. I think that more than anything else leads to career regional lifers, more even than failed training events, DUIs, or lack of ability to get a four year degree. And I think it’s these people that make majors leery of straight flow programs, increasingly requiring set amounts of TPIC or other hoops to jump through that will weed them out of the flow.

That's almost exactly where I was. Broke even year one. Off to the races year two, anticipate about $2M more career earnings over staying at the regional.

At least as many days off at the major year one, although that can vary by base and equipment. Year two better QOL hands down, and the trips are easier too (1-2 leg days vice 3-5). By coincidence, QOL/days off declined dramatically at the regional after I left, due to staffing issues. No sign of that changing for many years.

What you just said is actually not true, but it's the logic that many folks use to rationalize staying put.

Now there is a real downside to making such a move: Risk. Risk of training failure, risk of economic downturn and furlough while you're still very junior. If you're sole bread-winner for a family and don't have other skills, that's a legit consideration.

Training failure is definitely a risk. Thing is majors hire military guys who don't know how to play the game as well as a prior 121 guy who is likely to have friends that can give all sorts of helpful welcome aboard tips.

The furlough risk is minimal now. Short of some sort of economic catastrophe, retirements alone would cover furloughs over the next 5 years - 10 years by which I figure a major would recover. Sitting reserve in the worse base is possible, but you're on the seniority list. It'd be worse if your regional got Colgan'ed (or Compass'ed or GoJet'ed shortly).

If you're an airline pilot, that puts you in the top 2-3% of driven people. There are always jobs out there for unskilled people with drive and once you're on a major seniority list, you don't leave it. The company will even retrain you to get back flying once it's recall time even if you haven't touched an airplane since you got furloughed. That's not the same if your regional goes under during the downturn.