Tipping it bad is absolutely predictable. All the easy steps to alleviate the shortage have been done, but mandatory retirements of the baby boomer age pilots are not just continuing but accelerating while flying passenger miles are increasing.

It’s simple math.

There is not a true pilot shortage.

There will never be a pilot shortage at the majors.

Just my opinions.

Getting tired of this narrative.

Regionals aren't exactly "footing the bill" for us rotor pilots. The training funds usually come in lieu of a new hire bonus. So it is the individual pilot who pays in the end.

The opportunity for commercial helicopter pilots to convert to airplane ATP and go fly for a regional is not new. It just wasn't economically worthwhile for us to do so, until very recently.

And in terms of talent, I might only speak for myself, but I'm taking to it just fine thank you.

First, this isn't the majors forum and we aren't specifying a shortage at every level. A major airline can compensate for a shortage of pilots by upgauging so it is very obvious to say that of course there won't be a shortage. There will, however, be about a decade of incredible hiring at that level.

We have already seen two airlines, one particularly successful, effectively close their doors and primarily a response to a shortage of labor. Other airlines have been struggling to fill classes to staff anticipated growth for the last 5 years, even after increasing pay substantially. In economic terms, that is a shortage of supply.

Yes, there is a shortage. No, there is not a shortage of pilots available at the highest paying and most reputable jobs. But we aren't talking just about jobs at Envoy or Endeavor or Skywest or Delta or United. You don't find cracks in houses with the best foundation. Go to airlines built on cardboard to find them on the verge of collapse.

A bonus is just that. You sign now, you get paid. You have a type rating, you get paid more. The airline is effectively paying for a very expensive training and rating and all you have to do is sign a piece of paper. That isn't a narrative. That is just a fact. And this program isn't far removed from the days when new hires were unpaid until the end of training or had to pay for the type themselves. There companies aren't doing this out of the kindness of their heart.

Exactly ... the big debate on forums.flightinfo.com c 1997 - whether pay-for-training regionals were a good choice.

Current starting wage for regional FOs, including bonus, is roughly the median family income in the US. That isn’t rich, but 50% of the FAMILIES in the US make less than that.

If there was no shortage, they’d all be making minimum wage, sort of like most were making five years ago:

https://youtu.be/SwKuSMVCliQ

I think this is a good reminder it's not just pay. Pay alone RJ drivers should be higher but at least now it's a livable amount with defined progression to the left seat instead of years of uncertainty when upgrade will happen. It's also all the soft stuff, single occupancy paid hotels during training, positive space during the interview (as silly as it sounds, back in the day you had to find your own ticket at some regionals) etc. Regional airline pilots are almost treated like professionals.
Of course you could go to the 135 world and get a company card and home basing a lot easier now too.

Airline pilots should be compared to professions which require a degree, extensive/expensive post-grad training, and internship dues paying.

Regional pay is low by that standard, major pay is pretty good, in fact at the very top extreme end it has to beat almost any non-executive W-2 job.

Whether a regional job should be considered employment (under paid) or a very well-paid internship is debatable.

Except several regionals give significantly more to rtp guys than fixed wing guys who already have the time. Skywest for example, rtp guys get $20k in benefit/compensation that fixed wing guys don’t.