I certainly hope it’s only 6 months to a year, however I think most people are really underestimating the amount of damage this has already caused to the US economy and it’s just begun to accelerate. This has been wreaking havoc on the WORLD economy for months now. Our country is not independent whatsoever, which is going to make eventual recovery that much more difficult. Air travel is still a “luxury” for most Americans, so ticket purchases will never reach the capacity they were at for a long time as families struggle to recover as they’re buried further in debt. Just a two-week “stay at home quarantine” will create a huge financial setback to most Americans and we’re already pushing past 1 month of service workers losing jobs. Yes, pilots will continue to retire but I doubt we will see much growth in the industry in the foreseeable future.

 

Well least I didn’t get it from googling...here’s a “real” definition of depression

Depressions are drastic economic downturns in which real GDP falls by 10% or more. They are far more severe than recessions and their effects can be felt for years. Depressions are known to cause calamities in banking, trade and manufacturing, as well as falling prices, extremely tight credit, low investment, rising bankruptcies and high unemployment. As such, getting through a depression can be a challenge for consumers and businesses alike.

 

You know Google includes webs like the corporate finance Institute, don't you?. Or that's isn't real enough.

 

I try to judge the health of the economy based off the success of my sisters restaurants. Before this business was booming. She operated three very large places and was planning on opening a 4th. She also was known in the area for paying all of her employees higher than average wages compared to other places and in return they were pretty loyal. Now the state shut her down. IF they get back to work by early April, she will survive at the cost of one building. If they continue the shutdown past April all might be lost. She has already told the employees she laid off that if they come back, they should expect to come back at minimum wage and consider these well established places as a brand new business. She canceled all of her vacations for the year, which required an airplane to get there. Dozens of businesses in her area are gone already, never to return. All of those people will not be buying plane tickets. I don’t see this as a quick recovery at all. It will take a long time to get the big machine rolling again. The capacity for our economy to operate at max efficiency is there but it can’t be turned back on at the flick of a switch. People who are laid off from their jobs could be leaving one region of the country to go live with mom and dad. If places open back up it will take time to hire and train new employees. Anyways, I am bored and ranting. I just hope that everyone has a back up plan besides flying airplanes.

 

A free market is a great thing. Whoever has a viable vaccine will be printing money for decades.

This is nothing like building an airplane, which requires special tooling, costly specialized equipment, and thousands of skilled employees trained on that specific airframe.

These companies already have labs, scientists and production facilities. And it’s a global competition—a Korean, German or American company can se its vaccine literally anywhere in the world, since this virus threatens every human being in the world.

And Congress can provide a fast track with respect to any regulatory hurdles—or do you think they’d rather give another 9% of our GDP away?

 

Actually it is. It does require specialized equipment (which itself is made by a small number of companies) and requires highly trained employees.

These companies don't have that much extra capacity. That is why the CDC and the WHO have been warning us ever since SARS. Doubling output is one thing, but increasing the output 10x is another thing,

I don't know what Congress you have been watching these last few decades, but ours does not respond fast.

 

You're assuming that airline traffic just magically goes back to where it was. That isn't going to happen. Delta CEO is saying 3+ years. I tend to think it will be similar that, or more. Our financial system is on the brink of collapse and even the White House is expecting 20% unemployment.

 

You act like practically shutting down the entire global economy for a couple of months will cause people to lose their jobs, for business owners to watch something that they poured their life savings into fail, and for a deep recession to occur. Oh wait, that is exactly what is happening. If we are back to 70% of where we were before the virus by Christmas, I’ll be shocked. Recovery from there will take time. This recovery bill bought the airlines a few months to find out what is left. When the dust settles and the managers can accurately measure what is left, both legacy and regional staffing will be adjusted to meet demand.

 

Follow up, today on the daily national COVID brief Dr. Fauci stated they are implementing the vaccine expediting measures I described a few days ago (not because it was my idea, but because it obviously needed to happen).

 

Actually I said Republic won’t. And that was after a mere 5-10% capacity reduction was announced and everyone thought that reduction was the end of the world. We now have seen over a 40% drop for April with A further decrease expected for May and the company is now offering to pay 50hrs a month for people to go on leave if they so desire for April, May, June or any combination of those months IN ADDITION to offering that same deal to people who already took the unpaid option that was already offered. Something the company did not have to do. I’m standing by my prediction that we won’t furlough, considering our company is doing everything possible to retain everyone and still pay them the most possible. If come September the economy hasn’t turned around and/or this virus is still a major issue, all bets are off and not a single pilot will be safe whether your a regional or mainline pilot.

But go ahead and keep screaming the sky is falling. Meanwhile you, myself, our 2500 other pilots, all of our FAs and everyone we have sent home that was in the training process keeps collecting a paycheck at one of the best positioned regionals to weather out this time.