I agree.. .the only time we will see a consistent number up is when they announce a vaccine that shows promising and when they effectively see unemployment numbers go down, we are still weeks ahead from that. Markets are very “volatile” to the point where even financial analyst can’t predict how the market will react the next day.

when it comes to airlines... not trying to sound pessimistic but I hardly see them back to the hiring levels they had in at least ten years. My rationale is as follows:

- people are not flying now because they are afraid of the virus
- when people’s confidence are back they will still not going to fly for lack of money. Thousands are being lay off and the ones that are not are saving cash for the storm ahead.
- Airlines will get their loan money and they will have 5 years-ish to pay it off... during that time you can expect near “zero” expansion, just covering the minimum necessary routes and frequencies to meet demand. Pilots are going to be recalled from furlough as fast as old pilots retire...
- After airlines pay off the debt and are cleared “to expand at will” I can guarantee they will all save loads of cash (probably in the neighborhood of 16 billion each) so they will come out more conservative on expansion plans. They will most likely acquire new airplanes to replace the oldest fleet but not nearly enough to justify a hiring bonanza that we saw the past few years.

So sit back, relax, if you are not furloughed enjoy the ride for the next few years, welcome to the next “lost decade”

 

Look at retirement numbers, just to maintain flying they have to continue hiring. Maybe a lost 6 months - year. Especially with early retirements being offered.

 

Thank God you didn't try to sound pessimistic. It's impossible to figure out what's gonna happen next day, next week or next month, but you think you can talk about another lost decade? Geez.

 

It's like you guys are hoping for it.

 

They don’t necessarily have to maintain flying. If demand comes back at a reduced level, due to something like a pandemic causing a global recession, the demand for labor is also reduced. The airlines have shrunk with attrition lots of times. They could also change the business model. If they decide that reduced frequency on larger planes is the new answer, that would require fewer crews as well. We’re all along for the ride, hopefully it doesn’t get too rough.

 

it is not impossible, economists do it all the time, it’s called “econometrics”. Business decisions are made every day on economic forecasts based on statistics, previous patterns and behaviors and other data to try to predict the future. It’s not a science but gives you a pretty good idea of what is coming. A recession (about to turn into a depression) like this hasn’t been seen since1929 and it’s just starting, but what do I know, it’s not like I am an economist ...

 

A recession about to turn into a depression, wow............here's the first definition of depression I find on google:
"A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recessionthat lasts three or more years".
I sure hope you're not an economist.

 

I don't see this recession lasting 3 or more years based on the case/death rates and the trajectory this pandemic is taking but it could have lasting effects on the travel industry for various reasons and not all of them are bad. We could see needed diversification in trading and manufacturing due to lack of transparency in China. Some people might be more cautious, at least for a short time, about traveling abroad and decrease demand for air travel beyond this recession. Rotor transition programs, cadet programs, and hiring at R-ATP mins may be a thing of the past.

 

With over 1,000 pilots now on the street just at regionals, I've fixed your quote above.

 

I unfortunately am leaning now towards the above regarding changing their business model to come back slowly to meet the demand accordingly by right shape sizing. No one knows for sure but you can better grasp of what’s going on at the core. The big hit is they are not the first ones actually doing this. Businesses are getting savvy with video teleconferencing (VTC) yet again and savings costs they literally forgot about, but now are reminded of. Let’s not forget having employees with home offices devalues brick and mortar real estate costs, building codes, no utilities, or TP, just a tax right off if possible. Travel, hotels per diem are operating costs. This generation craves such ease of life measures as it pseudo emulates a GIG economy on a smaller scale. Heck, honestly I would too. Work during the week when I want, obscure hours at my choice and have food delivery rather than stuck in a cubicle from 8-5 M-F or more when I did it (was 9-5), even weekend access to employees. This is dangerously efficient and I would be wrong to assume the bean counters aren’t crunching numbers right now. Service providers such as large restaurants which seems to be laying workers off vs furloughing them and bringing them back. Several individuals interviewed said they thought this was temporary and go back to work when it gets back up and running soon after the lock down was over here in NYC. Employers indicating right sizing, doing more with less. How could they not accomplish this with a surge of unemployed most likely willing to work even harder, longer and for less. We see plenty of this normal type of discussions/proposals on this forum as an example. Parents of 54 million children mandated for home schooling, picking up study materials and trying to work this out and work at home just announced. It’s far deeper than leisure travel taking a hit as people dip into savings if they have any. Every day counts but who knows where the break even point is to lift lockdown and get back to work too early and spread again. But they now have a deal on the Relief Bill. Hope it works well. 3AM Eastern 25 Mar. Spike seems to be coming. Hate this, just being frank.