Slaphappy

And more debt than all others combined. Negative equity.

sflpilot

Those that are already at mainline will probably experience some pain. People at the regionals are another story. Getting hired at anything above a regional at this point is going to be a distant fantasy for many years. The regionals have no control. Mainline controls the flying and they can modify or dump the agreements in bankruptcy.

sanicom3205

I get that long term, that debt is an issue. But for right now, in this crisis, the only thing that matters is how much cash you have on hand. Being able to pay the bills and keep the lights on before you have to start burning the furniture to heat the house (layoffs, dumping aircraft, etc). AA also has $43 billion PP&E which is much more than other majors and bodes well for the company in the long term, if/when they get through this (see: cash on hand).

If you look at cash burn forecasts for all the major carriers and how long they can keep the lights on, It looks like this:
(pretty much calculated by looking at cash / cash burn. This includes debt payments)

Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
AA: 4.8 months

It's just a matter of weeks difference between the big three. This doesn't include CARES act cash, so factor that in. Also consider PP&E. AA has the distinct advantage there, where in a game of outliving your competitors and taking over their marketshare when things recover they can use their assets as collateral for more loans. Whoever makes it out the other side in the strongest position will dominate.


All this to say that it's complicated, and running around only looking at debt is way too simplistic a view. OP is still a tool

JayBee

Slaphappy

And they will have to leverage all of it.

Thruster

The OP has been spamming the entire board with posts like this all morning

sanicom3205

Again, they’ll only be forced to do it three weeks before Delta or United. And when they do, they have more assets to leverage.

point80

On another note, had anyone heard what’s happening with xjt? Last I heard them and Republic were the only ones over the $100 million mark to not get money yet. I know Republic’s board sent out a proposal to their shareholders to renegotiate the terms of their bankruptcy. But, I have yet to hear anything on xjt.

itsmytime

especially since he didn’t even know how to spell the disease that is causing all of his dire predictions.

Whats CoRvid19?

rickair7777

Yes hysteria isn't helping.

But reality as I see it: There is no way the big three will avoid furloughs. 15-20% best case, and it could get much uglier if bookings don't start rolling in by late summer. We'll see it coming... bookings will tell the story, pax don't book holiday season travel in Nov.

As somebody said, it's definitely likely that one or more majors airlines will file BK, almost assured some will merge. It's possible but less likely one or more will liquidate... less likely because the fed cannot let the big four fail, so if they save one or more of those, they'd kind of have to at least try to save the others.