Even if pay-to-fly does not come back, you can probably guarantee training bonds will become standard.

I already posted this in another thread: At my flightschool they freezed all of the 6th day pay (which was pretty high by the way) and guess what! A lot of instructors asked to work 6th days for free just to get the hours. I bet they won't bring that 6th day pay soon... So there are people there willing to work for free, I bet there are even people willing to pay for the type and work as an FO for 15$/hr. In Europe paying for the type rating has been completly normal even before COVID.

I don’t think PFT will come back.

It took massive hiring bonuses and respectable entry level wages to get many pilots in the pipeline to begin with (and there was still a shortage).

If you take away the hiring bonuses or even lower starting pay you’ll lose a lot of the applicants. All they need to see is things going in the wrong direction.

If you make them pay on top of that, you’ll lose basically all applicants.

that is true, the pipeline is not as full as it appears. Yeah, there’s 1000 guys from compass and TSA, blah, blah, blah. Some of those guys will leave flying all together, and any that haven’t will certainly not come back for PFT after the previous hiring cycle they just witnessed.

That's the thing, until the Majors start hiring again the Regionals won't need a lot of applicants. Hence no need for hiring bonuses and possible training bonds/requirements. They won't care they are losing a lot of applicants because they just simply don't need them for the foreseeable future.

This would be true if future demand will be the same as in February when this blows over. It probably won’t be and there will be serious contractions in 121/135, meaning thousands of pilots flooding the applicant pool and making it an employer’s market

Every day a pilot graduates into the pipeline with no hiring is another day on the back end after hiring resumes that pilot will have to wait.
Then there is there are the October considerations.

I am one of the guys that started this 2 years ago and borrowed about 60k to do it. I am sitting at my R-ATP minimums and any class dates I had are suspended indefinitely.

I have a good career in the fire dept and can afford to pay on my student loans (fixed interest- low rate, and maybe if one of these Democrats get in they will just forgive it anyways).

I have always looked at this potential career switch as an investment. My return on the investment is significantly delayed, however I still think it will pay off eventually.

These last few weeks have helped me to make a decision not to leave my current career completely......until I am way up on a seniority list or find something in the 135 field that I can merge with my current schedule.

If minimums change due to a large amount of 121 pilots on the street then I will deal with it then. I think no one knows what will happen in October. Everything could bounce back by then with the country opening up this week or all the majors could lay off 30% and delay everything for 5 years. My best guess is somewhere in between.

Its a shot in the dark to predict it now. Thankfully all of my certificates do not have expiration dates and I can afford to rent a plane to keep IFR current every 6 months until the hiring comes back. If I have to pay for a CTP course then so be it- 5k isn't too bad. I won't be paying for a 30k type rating though. As far as training bond I think that will be on a case by case basis if I will sign- I understand the reasoning for it, but I can afford to sit back and wait while working my current career until hiring is favorable to the candidates again or until the right 135 job opens up.

Standby doubting Thomas...

;)

Haha!!! Made me laugh out loud